DeepCap Weekly Wrap
The Week at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Trump pressures Fed on rates as yields stay elevated and markets stall |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.53) |
| π‘ | Key Takeaway: Fed independence under political fire, but Waller signals holding rates steady in September as hike debate intensifies |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Weekly Performance β |
Top 5 Headlines That Shaped the Week
-
US economy smashes forecast with 162,000 jobs added in August
Blowout payrolls reset Fed rate-cut expectations, lifting yields and pressuring equities Friday. -
Trump doubles down on threat to halt trade with top partners unless Fed cuts rates
Presidential pressure on the Fed and trade threats rattled risk sentiment across multiple sessions. -
The inflation genie could be out of the bottle β and bond markets are sounding the alarm
Global bond selloff and rising yields became the week’s defining macro theme across US and EU markets. -
Euro zone inflation is back above 3%. Higher interest rates are likely to follow
Above-target eurozone CPI reinforced ECB tightening bets, weighing on DAX and European rate-sensitive sectors. -
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.71%, Their Highest Level Since July 2025
Surging mortgage rates signaled real-economy spillover from the bond selloff, hitting housing-sector sentiment.
The Week in Review
The Big Picture
The week’s defining story was the collision between White House pressure and Federal Reserve independence. Trump escalated his attacks on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh β and floated threats to halt trade with partners unless the Fed cuts rates β while Governor Waller publicly signaled the Fed would hold at the September meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.79, within a whisker of its 52-week high of 4.80, as bond markets priced in a stubborn inflation outlook. EURIBOR3M hit its own 52-week high at 2.68, suggesting the rate anxiety isn’t confined to the US. Mortgage rates hitting 6.71% β their highest since July 2025 β added a real-economy edge to the tension. Bitcoin notched a third consecutive winning week, drawing investors hunting alternatives as macro crosscurrents mounted.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs print offered a brief counterweight, but it cut both ways: good news for growth, bad news for rate-cut hopes. With Republicans publicly souring on economic conditions and Vice President Vance openly calling for easier monetary policy, the political pressure on the Fed is now a market variable in its own right.
US Markets
US equities drifted marginally lower across the week, with the S&P 500 down -0.16%, the Nasdaq down -0.13%, and the Dow Jones off -0.29% β moves too small to call a selloff, but telling in what they masked. UiPath dropped -18.64% and lululemon fell -16.34%, both punished after earnings disappointments. On the other side, IREN Limited surged +20.38%, Intel recovered +7.03%, and Super Micro Computer gained +6.20%, keeping tech from a steeper slide. The tight index ranges concealed sharp single-stock dispersion underneath.
EU Markets
European markets underperformed modestly, with the STOXX 600 down -0.30% and the DAX shedding -1.22% β the sharpest weekly decline among major indices. Germany’s industrial exposure made it most vulnerable to Trump’s trade-halt rhetoric. The FTSE 100 bucked the trend, gaining +0.36%, aided by sterling’s relative stability and the index’s commodity and energy weighting. The German 10-year yield held at 3.35, near its 52-week high, signaling that European bond markets share the inflation vigilance visible in the US.
Asia Markets
Asia bore the week’s steepest losses. The Nikkei 225 fell -2.09% to Β₯65,021, the region’s worst performer, as yen dynamics and trade-war anxiety weighed on export names. The KOSPI shed -1.50% to β©6,687, and the ASX 200 slipped -0.95% to A$9,006. The Shanghai Composite eased -0.56% to 3,930 CNY, reflecting cautious domestic sentiment. The Hang Seng was the lone bright spot, edging up +0.26% to HK$25,651, with Friday’s +1.74% session surge providing late-week relief across the region.
5-Day Market Performance
πΊπΈ US Markets
-
S&P 500
-0.16% -
Nasdaq
-0.13% -
Dow Jones
-0.29%
πͺπΊ EU Markets
-
STOXX 600
-0.3% -
DAX
-1.22% -
FTSE 100
+0.36%
π Asia Markets
-
Nikkei 225 Β₯65,021
-2.09% -
Hang Seng HK$25,651
+0.26% -
KOSPI β©6,687
-1.5% -
Shanghai Composite 3,930 CNY
-0.56% -
ASX 200 A$9,006
-0.95%
Weekly Market Movers
π Week’s Top Gainers
- IREN LIMITED β +20.38%
- Keel Infrastructure Corp. β +10.16%
- Pacific Gas & Electric Co. β +7.76%
- Intel Corporation β +7.03%
- Super Micro Computer, Inc. β +6.2%
- Micron Technology, Inc. β +6.04%
- Nu Holdings Ltd. β +5.64%
- MARA Holdings, Inc. β +5.01%
π Week’s Top Losers
- UiPath, Inc. β -18.64%
- lululemon athletica inc. β -16.34%
- NIO Inc. β -10.17%
- Planet Labs PBC β -8.72%
- Tesla, Inc. β -3.77%
- Netflix, Inc. β -3.45%
- Broadcom Inc. β -3.36%
- American Airlines Group, Inc. β -2.23%
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.53 | +1.47% | +0.69% | 14.32β16.34 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.68% | +1.13% | +4.28% | 2.49β2.68 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.79% | +0.42% | +1.48% | 4.63β4.8 | π Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.35% | -0.3% | +1.52% | 3.22β3.39 | Neutral |
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β οΈ Weekend Watch
Key developments to monitor before markets reopen:
- Fed independence pressure: Watch for Trump escalation on Warsh/Powell over weekend; any executive action threat would gap markets Monday.
- US 10Y at 4.79% β monitor weekend bond futures and any sovereign commentary; a push toward 5% would reprice equities sharply.
- China weekend data risk: PBoC liquidity operations and any PMI or trade-related commentary ahead of Asia open Sunday night.
- Fed’s Waller signaled hold for September β watch for any contradicting Fed speakers over weekend that shift rate-hike pricing.
- Bitcoin three-week win streak intact amid macro stress; crypto weekend volatility can signal Monday risk-on or risk-off tone early.
π° This Week’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed rate-path tension, mortgage rate highs, and bond market alarm dominate the rate environment as political pressure on the Fed intensifies.
- Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms β CNBC
- Fed Governor Waller indicates he will support holding rates steady at September meeting β CNBC
- Mortgage Rates Hit 6.71%, Their Highest Level Since July 2025 β The New York Times
- Demand for riskier mortgages rises along with interest rates β CNBC
- Analysis: Lower Treasury yields could require a weaker economy. Trump won’t fix them β CNBC
- The inflation genie could be out of the bottle β and bond markets are sounding the alarm β CNBC
- Vance says Fed should lower interest rates: ‘Would be nice to have some help’ β CNBC
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Global bond yields, Fed rate-hike expectations, ECB policy signals, and mortgage rates are all moving in tandem following strong US jobs data and geopolitical oil-price pressure.
- What strong jobs data means for rates β plus, an out-of-favor trade shines this week β CNBC
- The Bond Markets Are Pushing Up Rates. Will Central Banks Follow? β The New York Times
- Trump calls for interest rate cut after jobs figures raise hike bets β BBC
- New doubts emerge about whether Fed will raise interest rates this month β MarketWatch
- What Rising Global Bond Rates Mean for Your Money β The New York Times
- Euro zone inflation is back above 3%. Higher interest rates are likely to follow β CNBC
- Average rate on a 30-year mortgage climbs to highest level in 13 months β AP News
- Mortgage rates surge to the highest since June 2025 as new Middle East attacks push oil prices up β CNBC
Trade & Diplomacy: Trump’s Rate-Cut Ultimatum
Trump explicitly links trade access to Fed rate cuts, issuing escalating threats to halt trade with partners β a rare fusion of monetary and trade coercion.
- Trump doubles down on threat to halt trade with top partners unless Fed cuts rates β CNBC
- Trump Threatens to Halt Some Trade Unless the Fed Cuts Rates β The New York Times
- Trump says if the Fed doesn’t cut rates, he’ll stop trading with some nations β Reuters
Trade & Diplomacy
Italy’s political milestone raises questions about European economic reform and its broader policy implications.
- Italy’s Meloni just hit a major political milestone. Former leaders say economic reform must follow β CNBC
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
August’s blockbuster 162,000-job print is the dominant macro event, with coverage spanning the raw data, political spin, and broader economic implications.
- US economy smashes forecast with 162,000 jobs added in August β Financial Times
- U.S. Adds a Whopping 162,000 Jobs in a Bright Spot for the Economy β WSJ
- America In Focus: US hiring bounces back in August; mortgage rates climb β AP News
- Trump keeps heralding an economic boom, but even a solid jobs report is causing problems for him β AP News
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Robust Hiring Reinforces Strength of the U.S. Economy β The New York Times
- Rates Climb, Stocks Dip After Strong U.S. Jobs Data β WSJ
- Why the Bond Selloff Hasn’t Triggered an Emerging Market Crisis β Bloomberg.com
- Markets can’t ignore the war anymore β Axios
- Supreme Court grants Republican emergency appeal on TV ad rates before midterms β AP News
- Waymo and Zoox expand into more U.S. markets as robotaxi race heats up β CNBC
- Rocket Companies: Compressing Margins And High Multiples β Seeking Alpha
- Volkswagen AG (VWA:CA) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript β Seeking Alpha
- Primary Markets Group August IPO Update β Seeking Alpha
- Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount β CNBC