DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: US jobs report looms as yields hold elevated and risk mood steadies |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.2, -6.98%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: US Non-Farm Payrolls / Jobs Report โ Friday morning release |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
-
Asian Stocks Set to Advance as Oil Pressures Ease: Markets Wrap
Cross-asset session summaries and broad equity market direction headlines. -
The Midterms Will Reshape the Markets. Here’s How From 4 Investing Pros.
Midterm elections framed through a market and investing lens by financial professionals. -
Pasqal Stock Slump Highlights Growing Macro Risks Facing Quantum Computing Industry
Single-sector and company-specific stories including quantum computing and healthcare reimbursement policy.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The dominant story on September 2 was the global bond selloff. UST10Y sits at 4.77, within 3 basis points of its 52-week high of 4.80, while DE10Y hit a fresh 52-week high of 3.39, up +0.89% on the day. New York Fed’s Williams attributed the yield surge to strong economic prospects, but the broader picture is more complicated: a term-premium repricing layered on geopolitical risk, with Middle East tensions pushing oil and mortgage costs higher. BOJ chief Ueda signaled a possible September rate hike and Japan’s borrowing costs hit a 30-year high โ developments that reinforced the global tightening narrative alongside the Bank of Canada holding rates but flagging that multiple hikes may be needed. An ECB policymaker separately warned the central bank must be prepared to lift rates further, adding to European rate pressure. Asia overnight carried the hangover โ Nikkei ยฅ64,144 (-0.28% day, -3.01% week) and Hang Seng HK$25,225 (-0.34% day) both closed lower, though KOSPI โฉ6,591 and ASX 200 A$9,016 eked small gains.
The Setup
The VIX at 15.2 (-6.98% day) looks complacent relative to the bond market stress it should be pricing. UST10Y at 4.77 is within 3 basis points of its 52-week high; DE10Y at 3.39 is already there. EURIBOR3M hit its own 52-week high of 2.61 (+0.77% day), signaling European rate expectations are repricing higher in sync. EUR/USD at 1.16 is flat, an unusual calm given the rate divergence. Pasqal Holding SA cratered -21.66% โ Barron’s linked the move to growing macro risks facing the quantum computing sector โ while Credo Technology Group fell -20.04% and Edison International dropped -6.14%, adding to cross-sector pressure that points to broad risk reduction.
Today’s Watch
The session centers on Friday’s US jobs report framing โ Barron’s flagged it could “surprise the Fed and shock markets.” No high-impact US releases hit today, making positioning ahead of payrolls the primary driver. UK Halifax House Price Index prints at 06:00 London time; watch for further evidence of rate pass-through into housing. CFTC positioning data arrives later, with S&P 500 net speculative positions last read at -68 โ a bearish lean that leaves room for a squeeze if bond yields consolidate below 4.77.
Market Movers
๐ Top Gainers
- Fervo Energy Company โ +-8.96%
- Comstock Resources, Inc. โ +-3.0%
- MiniMed Group, Inc. โ +5.98%
- Moderna, Inc. โ +-2.24%
- Edison International โ +-6.14%
- Duolingo, Inc. โ +-0.58%
- Kailera Therapeutics, Inc. โ +-3.41%
- BWX Technologies, Inc. โ +-3.63%
๐ Top Losers
- Engie Brasil Energia S A โ 4.02%
- OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited โ -1.53%
- Pershing Square Inc. โ -5.24%
- Pasqal Holding SA โ -21.66%
- SharkNinja, Inc. โ 0.19%
- Fastly, Inc. โ -1.64%
- Credo Technology Group Holding โ -20.04%
- Axon Enterprise, Inc. โ -2.18%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 09/04 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | ๐ด High |
| Fri 09/04 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 09/04 | US | Unemployment Rate | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 09/04 | CA | Unemployment Rate | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 09/04 | CA | Ivey PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 09/04 | CA | Ivey PMI n.s.a | ๐ธ Med |
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.2 | -6.98% | -0.07% | 14.43โ16.34 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.61% | +0.77% | +2.76% | 2.49โ2.61 | ๐ Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.77% | -0.21% | +2.14% | 4.63โ4.8 | ๐ Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.39% | +0.89% | +4.31% | 3.22โ3.39 | ๐ Bid |
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๐ฐ Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Market Moves & Daily Wraps
Cross-asset session summaries and broad equity market direction headlines.
- Asian Stocks Set to Advance as Oil Pressures Ease: Markets Wrap โ Bloomberg.com, 09/02/2026
- America’s Population of 401(k) Millionaires Keeps Growing, Buoyed by Markets โ Bloomberg.com
Elections & Economic Perception
Midterm elections framed through a market and investing lens by financial professionals.
- The Midterms Will Reshape the Markets. Here’s How From 4 Investing Pros. โ Barron’s
Sectors & Corporate Movers
Single-sector and company-specific stories including quantum computing and healthcare reimbursement policy.
- Pasqal Stock Slump Highlights Growing Macro Risks Facing Quantum Computing Industry โ Barron’s, 09/02/2026
- Opinion | Medicare’s Below Market Reimbursement Rates โ WSJ
- Are Sports Prediction Markets Legal? The Supreme Court Is Asked to Weigh In. โ Barron’s, 09/02/2026
Sectors & Corporate Movers
Sector-specific and structural commentary on data center investment and IPO market dynamics.
- Data centers are a political economy problem not a PR problem, says Plexo Capital’s Lo Toney โ CNBC, 09/02/2026
- IPO booms can spell trouble for the markets โ The Economist, 09/01/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Global Bond Markets
A synchronized global rise in borrowing costs dominates, spanning Fed signals, Bank of Canada holds, Japan’s 30-year high, and surging mortgage rates.
- Japan’s borrowing costs hit 30-year high: what does it mean for global markets? โ Financial Times
- Global Bond Rates Are Rising. What Should You Do Now? โ The New York Times, 09/02/2026
- What’s behind the selloff in world bond markets? โ Reuters, 09/01/2026
- Fed Chairman Warsh Lays Out His Own Data Dashboard for Reading the US Economy โ Bloomberg.com, 09/02/2026
- New York Fed’s Williams says yield surge due to strong economic prospects โ CNBC, 09/02/2026
- What higher interest rates are telling us โ Axios, 09/02/2026
- Bank of Canada holds key rate, says multiple hikes might be needed โ Reuters, 09/02/2026
- Bank of Canada mulls Trump tariff shock as it holds interest rates โ CNBC, 09/02/2026
- Mortgage rates surge to the highest since June 2025 as new Middle East attacks push oil prices up โ CNBC, 08/31/2026
- Best high-yield savings account rates of September 2026 โ up to 10% APY โ MarketWatch, 09/02/2026
- Why Friday’s Jobs Report Could Surprise the Fed and Shock Markets โ Barron’s
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Stocks climb and US yields ease; yen jumps against dollar โ Reuters, 09/02/2026
- CNBC Markets Now: September 2, 2026 โ CNBC, 09/02/2026
- China’s slowdown pushes New Zealand exporters to diversify away from their top buyer, RBNZ official tells CNBC โ CNBC, 09/03/2026
- The extraordinary rise of Miami’s economy โ The Economist
- ECB must be prepared to lift interest rates further, says top policymaker โ Financial Times, 09/02/2026
- BOJ chief signals chance of September rate hike, debate on price risks โ Reuters, 09/02/2026
- Bond Yields Around the World Soar in Challenge to Government Borrowing โ WSJ, 09/01/2026
- Global bond rout gathers pace as inflation fears mount โ CNBC, 09/02/2026
- Bond markets are worried about inflation and deficits, says WSJ’s Greg Ip โ CNBC, 09/02/2026
- Some exaggeration with what’s happening in global bond markets right now: Baird Strategas’ Verrone โ CNBC, 09/02/2026