The Week in Review

The Big Picture

Rate-cut optimism was the week’s organizing logic. June hiring data showed US employers still reluctant to add jobs, cooling labor market pressure and shifting expectations toward earlier Fed easing. That single data point lit a fuse across global equities — Reuters called it the best week for global stocks since May. The VIX fell to 15.81, a 52-week low, signaling a market that sees diminishing near-term risk. Bond markets told a more complicated story: the UST 10Y held at 4.49% on the day but is up 2.28% on the week, suggesting the rate-cut trade has limits. The DE10Y climbed to 2.94%, near its 52-week high of 2.99%, as Eurozone CPI cooled but didn’t collapse. EUR/USD sat flat at 1.14.

Beneath the headline calm, there were fault lines. US consumer sentiment remained gloomy, and BofA warned that better European growth won’t necessarily translate into equity gains — a cautionary note largely ignored by the investor.

US Markets

The S&P 500 gained +1.71%, the Nasdaq +1.87%, and the Dow Jones +1.89% for the week — a broadly synchronized advance without dramatic sector divergence. The Dow’s relative strength is notable: when cyclicals and value names keep pace with growth, the rally has wider participation. Palantir (+14.50%) and UiPath (+11.21%) led AI-adjacent names higher, though the AI productivity story remains hard to quantify — as the New York Times noted, reshaping and measuring are very different things. Rivian (+19.19%) was the week’s standout mover, suggesting risk appetite extended well beyond software. On the other side, Micron (-13.84%) and Super Micro Computer (-11.13%) reminded investors that semiconductor exposure cuts both ways, with MARA Holdings (-14.72%) and IREN Limited (-17.77%) pulling crypto-adjacent mining names sharply lower.

EU Markets

European equities outperformed their US counterparts in raw terms. The DAX surged +3.14%, the STOXX 600 added +1.96%, and the FTSE 100 gained +1.42%. Germany’s outperformance drove the regional headline. EURIBOR 3M ticked down to 2.32%, reinforcing expectations of ECB easing ahead, while Eurozone CPI cooling provided additional cover. The FTSE lagged, consistent with sterling dynamics and the UK’s distinct rate trajectory. BofA’s caution — that growth upgrades alone won’t sustain European equity multiples — remains a valid structural question, even as the week’s numbers look clean.

Asia Markets

Asia closed the week positive but fragmented. The Nikkei 225 ended at ¥69,744, up +0.55% on the week with a strong Friday session (+1.47%). The Hang Seng settled at HK$23,350, gaining +1.18% weekly. Shanghai Composite closed at 4,044 CNY, up a modest +0.41%. The ASX 200 finished at A$8,844, adding +0.92%. The outlier was the KOSPI at ₩8,088, down -3.84% for the week despite a violent Friday bounce of +5.76% — suggesting a sharp intra-week dislocation, likely driven by regional geopolitical or currency stress, that Friday’s session only partially reversed.

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