DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: Fed rate-hike odds fade as slowing jobs data reshapes investors’ policy outlook |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 16.15, -2.65%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: UK CPI (Jun) and ECB President Lagarde speech due โ key reads on European inflation and monetary policy direction |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
-
U.S. Snaps Hiring Hot Streak With Only 57,000 Jobs Added in June
A weaker-than-expected June payrolls report anchors a cluster of stories questioning U.S. economic momentum and structural growth headwinds. -
Fed seen less likely to raise rates as job growth slows
Weak jobs data reshapes Fed rate-hike expectations while BoE and Trump-Fed tensions add cross-border rate-path complexity. -
Asian markets find footing as US jobs data, PMIs lift stocks
Asian equities found support as U.S. jobs and PMI data landed and beaten tech stocks recovered, with two outlets covering the same session from slightly different angles.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The headline that defined Wednesday’s session: U.S. payrolls added only 57,000 jobs in June, snapping a sustained run of solid hiring and landing well below consensus. That single print reshuffled Fed expectations, with Fed Chair designee Kevin Warsh having signalled improved inflation while declining to commit on rate direction โ and President Trump publicly pressing Warsh to act, blasting the Fed as “hostile.” Asian markets absorbed the data constructively โ the KOSPI surged +5.46% to โฉ8,066, the ASX 200 climbed +1.39% to A$8,846, and the Nikkei added +1.08% to ยฅ69,479 โ reading the weak jobs number as rate-cut optionality rather than recession signal. The Hang Seng gained +1.17% to HK$23,325, while Shanghai added +0.71% to 4,058 CNY. The semiconductor cluster took coordinated damage: Vicor (-19.21%), Axcelis Technologies (-18.97%), Veeco (-18.48%), and Ultra Clean (-17.84%) all tumbled, consistent with the “Chip Stocks Tumble Again” narrative flagged by WSJ. On the equity positive side, Rivian rallied. In Europe, Germany’s ruling coalition unveiled a sweeping economic reform package aimed at jump-starting growth as the far right gains ground โ a story covered across WSJ, NYT, and Reuters. Gulf markets slipped as US-Iran nuclear negotiations showed little headway.
The Setup
Risk sentiment looks composed heading into July 3rd. VIX sits at 16.15, down -2.65% on the day and -14.51% on the week โ a 52-week low โ signaling that the options market is not pricing stress. UST10Y holds at 4.49%, near its 52-week high of 4.52%, a tension worth watching: bonds haven’t rallied despite a soft payrolls print. DE10Y rose +1.04% to 2.91%, nudging toward its 52-week high of 2.99%. EURIBOR3M dipped -0.43% to 2.31%, reinforcing ECB easing expectations. EUR/USD is flat at 1.14.
Today’s Watch
Today’s calendar is light, with July 4th holiday proximity thinning U.S. participation. ECB President Lagarde speaks at 08:00 CET and BoE Governor Bailey at 15:00 BST โ both on the policy calendar and worth monitoring given BoE’s Catherine Mann having flagged readiness to raise rates if the inflation outlook darkens. UK CPI for June (forecast 3.7%) is the key data point of the morning. CFTC positioning data releases at 19:30 will update speculative exposure across EUR, GBP, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 โ the prior S&P 500 net short of -35.4 and Nasdaq net short of -9.1 are worth monitoring against the week’s equity resilience. Colombia’s central bank releases monetary policy minutes at 22:00. The real focus remains whether UST10Y finally catches down to the soft payrolls narrative, or holds elevated โ that divergence is the week’s unresolved tension.
Market Movers
๐ Top Gainers
- SL Science Holding Limited โ +34.61%
- Polibeli Group Ltd โ +18.2%
- Genuine Parts Company โ +12.92%
- SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc โ +12.89%
- Avis Budget Group, Inc. โ +11.23%
- AeroVironment, Inc. โ +10.7%
- Nektar Therapeutics โ +10.33%
- Moderna, Inc. โ +10.01%
๐ Top Losers
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L โ -20.67%
- Vicor Corporation โ -19.21%
- Axcelis Technologies, Inc. โ -18.97%
- Veeco Instruments Inc. โ -18.48%
- Bel Fuse Inc. โ -18.29%
- Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. โ -17.84%
- MaxLinear, Inc โ -17.15%
- Aehr Test Systems โ -17.13%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 07/03 | UK | CPI | ๐ด High |
| Fri 07/03 | IT | Retail Sales | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/03 | IT | Retail Sales | ๐ธ Med |
Central Bank & Policy Calendar
-
July 03 โ ECB President Lagarde Speech
[ecb] -
July 03 โ ECB Lagarde Speech
[ecb] -
July 03 โ BoE Gov Bailey Speech
[boe]
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.15 | -2.65% | -14.51% | 16.15โ19.49 | ๐ Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.31% | -0.43% | +0.43% | 2.29โ2.42 | ๐ Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.49% | 0.0% | +2.28% | 4.37โ4.52 | ๐ Bid |
| DE 10Y | 2.91% | +1.04% | +1.75% | 2.86โ2.99 | Neutral |
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๐ฐ Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
U.S. Jobs Slowdown & Macro Growth Concerns
A weaker-than-expected June payrolls report anchors a cluster of stories questioning U.S. economic momentum and structural growth headwinds.
- U.S. Snaps Hiring Hot Streak With Only 57,000 Jobs Added in June โ WSJ, 07/02/2026
- U.S. job creation cools in June with payrolls growth of just 57,000; unemployment rate at 4.2% โ CNBC, 07/02/2026
- Heat Waves Are Becoming a Chronic Drag on the Economy โ WSJ, 07/02/2026
- Opinion | Three Ways Trump Is Strangling Economic Growth โ The New York Times, 07/02/2026
- Opinion | The Generational Force Hollowing Out the Economy โ The New York Times, 06/29/2026
- A.I. Is Reshaping the Economy. Good Luck Measuring How. โ The New York Times, 07/02/2026
- What Germany’s Economic Overhaul Means for Its Economy โ WSJ
Rates, Central Banks & Fed Policy
Weak jobs data reshapes Fed rate-hike expectations while BoE and Trump-Fed tensions add cross-border rate-path complexity.
- Fed seen less likely to raise rates as job growth slows โ Reuters, 07/02/2026
- Warsh Says Inflation Outlook Has Improved but Won’t Say if Fed Should Hike Rates โ WSJ
- Trump blasts ‘hostile’ Fed and says Warsh ‘has to do what he has to do’ on interest rates โ MarketWatch
- Bank of England’s Mann suggests reduced rate hike bets boost case for action โ Reuters, 07/02/2026
- Japan’s Convertible Bonds Regain Favor as Rates Continue to Rise โ Bloomberg
Asian Markets Stabilize on U.S. Data & Tech Respite
Asian equities found support as U.S. jobs and PMI data landed and beaten tech stocks recovered, with two outlets covering the same session from slightly different angles.
- Asian markets find footing as US jobs data, PMIs lift stocks โ Reuters, 07/03/2026
- Asian Markets Rise As Beaten Tech Stocks Enjoy Respite From Selling โ Barron’s, 07/03/2026
Market Sentiment & Wall Street Positioning
Broad market-level commentary on risk appetite and investor conviction as macro cross-currents accumulate.
- Wall Street Bets Rallying Markets Will Absorb Every Market Blow โ Bloomberg, 07/02/2026
Weak Jobs Report Reshapes Macro Outlook
June payrolls came in well below expectations, cooling rate-hike fears and prompting broad macro reassessment.
- US economy undershoots forecasts with 57,000 jobs added in June โ Financial Times, 07/02/2026
- Latest Jobs Report Shows Labor Market Is Not a Source of Inflationary Pressure โ The New York Times, 07/02/2026
- Can the World’s Largest Stadium Explain the Global Economy? โ The New York Times
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Weak June Jobs Report Silences Calls for the Fed to Hike Rates. For Now. โ Barron’s, 07/02/2026
- The recent U.S. Dollar strength shows that the markets are misreading Kevin Warsh, says Robin Brooks โ CNBC, 07/03/2026
- Chip Stocks Tumble Again, Jobs Cool and Rivian Rallies | Markets P.M. for July 2 โ WSJ, 07/02/2026
- Sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s looks to public markets with US IPO filing โ Reuters, 07/02/2026
- Markets are seeing ‘fabulous earnings momentum,’ says Ed Yardeni โ CNBC, 07/02/2026
- Spotify Challenges Prediction Markets After Song Chart Rigging โ Bloomberg, 07/02/2026
- As Far Right Rises, German Leaders Look to Jump-Start the Economy โ The New York Times, 07/02/2026
- Under-fire German ruling coalition unveils reform package to boost economy โ Reuters, 07/02/2026
- Most Gulf markets in red as US-Iran negotiations show little headway โ Reuters, 07/02/2026
- Most prediction market contracts have low volume, leaving users exposed to volatility and bots โ CNBC, 07/02/2026