DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: 10-year Treasury at 5.12% deepens equity selloff as rate fears dominate |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.18, +6.83%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: CFTC Aluminium Speculative Net Positions report โ signals commodity positioning sentiment amid rising yield pressure |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
-
Australia housing runs out of rescuers as RBA is set to hike rates
Elevated interest rates and central bank policy are pressuring housing and reshaping the macro landscape across multiple economies. -
Just a few stocks are lifting the market to records these days. That's worrying traders
Narrow market breadth and high-profile short positions against chip stocks raise concerns about stretched tech and AI-adjacent valuations. -
OECD: U.S. economy to grow faster than its allies
US economic outperformance relative to global peers and global economy commentary highlight diverging growth trajectories.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday's Takeaway
The dominant story remains the UST10Y yield, which has hit 5.12% โ a 52-week high and the highest level since 2007 โ and shows no sign of retreating. That single number explains yesterday's equity slide: rising long-end rates compress multiples, punish rate-sensitive sectors, and tighten financial conditions without the Fed lifting a finger. Breadth confirmed the stress; the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is -2.1 pts versus the cap-weighted index on the week, meaning the selloff is broader than the headline suggests. Asia overnight offered a split verdict: Nikkei ยฅ65,764 (+1.15% day) and KOSPI โฉ7,081 (+0.90% day) held up, while Shanghai Composite 3,902 CNY (-0.87% day) and ASX 200 A$8,703 (-0.71% day) retreated.
The Setup
The risk picture is tense but not panicked. VIX sits at 15.18 (+6.83% day) โ elevated intraday but still well within its 52-week range and far from crisis territory. The DE10Y at 3.56 (+2.59% day) has hit its own 52-week high, meaning sovereign pressure is transatlantic, not purely a dollar story. EUR/USD holds at 1.14 with zero movement, suggesting FX is not yet amplifying the bond shock. EURIBOR3M at 2.61 โ a 52-week low โ signals European short rates are moving in the opposite direction from US long rates, a divergence worth watching for capital flow implications. Semiconductor and tech names led last week's recovery (iShares Semiconductor ETF +12.68% wk), but financials and energy lagged sharply.
Today's Watch
The economic calendar for September 25 is thin โ CFTC positioning data after the US close is the only scheduled release. With no macro catalyst to redirect attention, the 5.12% UST10Y remains the session's fulcrum. Watch whether Fastly (+13.69%) and cybersecurity names Palo Alto Networks (+5.00%) and CrowdStrike (+4.97%) can sustain momentum, or whether yield pressure reasserts and rolls the recent tech bid. The session's real test: does 5.12% hold as a ceiling, or does the market start pricing 6%?
Equity markets
Closes to 2026-09-24.
Leader: KOSPI Composite Index +5.40% on the week (Asia). Laggard: S&P/ASX 200 Index -0.38% on the week (Asia).
US
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 7,706 | -0.75% | +2.04% | +12.57% |
| Nasdaq 100 Index | 30,470 | -0.04% | +5.27% | +20.68% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,512 | -0.68% | +0.10% | +7.17% |
Europe
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 Index | 640 | -0.44% | +0.44% | +8.06% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 Index | 6,300 | -0.39% | +0.53% | +8.78% |
| FTSE 100 Index | 10,705 | -0.03% | +0.16% | +7.79% |
| DAX Index | 25,411 | -0.66% | -0.50% | +3.76% |
| CAC 40 Index | 8,123 | -0.39% | -0.21% | -0.32% |
| IBEX 35 Index | 19,632 | -0.62% | -0.02% | +13.43% |
Asia
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 Index | ยฅ65,815 | +1.22% | +2.62% | +30.74% |
| TOPIX Index | ยฅ4,086 | -0.12% | -0.20% | +19.86% |
| KOSPI Composite Index (as of 2026-09-23) | โฉ7,081 | +1.04% | +5.40% | +68.03% |
| TAIEX Index | NT$47,910 | -0.51% | +3.50% | +65.42% |
| Hang Seng Index | HK$24,705 | -0.52% | +0.41% | -3.61% |
| CSI 300 Index (as of 2026-09-23) | 4,517 CNY | -0.60% | +0.83% | -2.43% |
| Nifty 50 Index | โน23,219 | -0.97% | -0.22% | -11.14% |
| Straits Times Index | S$5,705 | -0.08% | +0.79% | +22.80% |
| FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI | RM1,678 | +0.08% | +0.18% | -0.14% |
| S&P/ASX 200 Index | A$8,699 | -0.76% | -0.38% | -0.18% |
Market Movers
๐ Top Gainers
- Fastly, Inc. โ +13.69%
- Securitize Corp. โ +10.46%
- ACM Research, Inc. โ +6.42%
- Klaviyo, Inc. Series A โ +5.73%
- Vicor Corporation โ +5.52%
- Palo Alto Networks, Inc. โ +5.0%
- CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. โ +4.97%
- Beta Technologies, Inc. โ +4.55%
๐ Top Losers
- Parabilis Medicines, Inc. โ -12.73%
- Endeavour Silver Corporation โ -11.89%
- Erasca, Inc. โ -10.32%
- Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. โ -8.94%
- Vera Therapeutics, Inc. โ -8.85%
- Paychex, Inc. โ -8.77%
- SharonAI Holdings, Inc. โ -8.67%
- Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. โ -8.54%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
Central Bank & Policy Calendar
-
September 25 โ BoE Gov Bailey Speech
[boe] -
September 25 โ Fed Williams Speech
[fed]
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.18 | +6.83% | -14.29% | 14.21โ17.84 | ๐ Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.61% | -0.38% | -2.61% | 2.61โ2.68 | ๐ Easing |
| US 10Y | 5.12% | 0.0% | +3.64% | 4.79โ5.12 | ๐ Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.56% | +2.59% | +1.14% | 3.38โ3.56 | ๐ Bid |
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๐ฐ Yesterday's Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Elevated interest rates and central bank policy are pressuring housing and reshaping the macro landscape across multiple economies.
- Australia housing runs out of rescuers as RBA is set to hike rates โ Reuters, 09/24/2026
- Mortgage interest rates top 7% โ Axios, 09/23/2026
- The Silver Lining in Soaring Interest Rates: The Economy Can Handle Them โ WSJ, 09/20/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Narrow market breadth and high-profile short positions against chip stocks raise concerns about stretched tech and AI-adjacent valuations.
- Just a few stocks are lifting the market to records these days. That's worrying traders โ CNBC, 09/23/2026
- Michael Burry adds to shorts as Nasdaq-100 hits all-time high. Why he's betting against chips โ CNBC, 09/23/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
US economic outperformance relative to global peers and global economy commentary highlight diverging growth trajectories.
- OECD: U.S. economy to grow faster than its allies โ Axios, 09/23/2026
- Watch PGIM's Singh on Global Economy, China-US relations โ Bloomberg.com, 09/24/2026
Market Moves & Daily Wraps
Cross-asset session summaries and broad market commentary capturing index-level moves driven by geopolitical and macro developments.
- Stocks, Bonds Climb as Oil Falls on US-Iran Hopes: Markets Wrap โ Bloomberg.com, 09/20/2026
- Emerging markets shrug off Iran war in record foreign borrowing spree โ Financial Times, 09/24/2026
- Morning Bid: Diplomacy takes a back seat โ Reuters, 09/24/2026
Sectors & Corporate Movers
Company- and market-structure stories โ NYSE tokenisation and Singapore's US-stock link โ that fall outside macro or rate themes.
- NYSE and Blockchain.com to explore selling tokenised stocks โ Reuters, 09/23/2026
- Singapore's link to US stocks is struggling to attract traders โ Reuters, 09/23/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- 6 'Moonshot' Biotech Stocks That Offer Big Risks, Bigger Rewards โ Barron's
- CFTC says prediction markets' 'mentions' contracts present a higher risk of manipulation โ CNBC, 09/22/2026
- Meta's Muse Drags Down Stocks That Depend on 'Consumer Inertia' โ Bloomberg.com
- Palantir, IonQ, Royal Caribbean, Paychex, McDonald's, and More Stocks That Explain Today's Market โ Barron's
- As 5% Treasury yields lose shock value, investors start worrying about 6% โ Reuters, 09/23/2026
- US Treasury yields soar most since 'liberation day' tariffs shook markets โ Financial Times
- Here's what happens to the economy when Treasury yields soar like they are now โ CNBC, 09/23/2026
- Inflation pressures raise prospect of Fed rate hike on eve of elections โ Reuters, 09/23/2026
- Nearly 10% of borrowers opted for riskier mortgages last week, as rates soared over 7% โ CNBC, 09/23/2026
- Indonesia's central bank holds rates steady, adds hedging incentives โ Reuters, 09/23/2026