DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: Rising rates and US-Iran war pressure bonds, housing, and risk appetite |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.67, +3.23%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due 2026-09-27; the dominant market signal today is the 10Y UST yield at 5.18%, near its 52-week high, amplifying pressure from the US-Iran war and a global bond selloff |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
-
History shows financial calamities occur when rates rise rapidly like this: 'Something always breaks'
Rapidly rising rates, Fed hawkishness, and a surge in mortgage rates past 7% form a single interconnected policy-and-housing stress story. -
Surging Treasury yields pose a brand new problem for Kevin Warsh and the Fed
Surging Treasury yields are rippling across the economy โ raising car loans, mortgage rates, and posing a new challenge for the Fed under Kevin Warsh. -
Bank of England to raise rates in November if energy prices remain high
Central bank policy decisions, rising Treasury yields, and surging mortgage rates are converging into a unified pressure point across global fixed-income markets.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday's Takeaway
The dominant story on September 24 was the relentless Treasury selloff driving the UST10Y to 5.18% โ within three basis points of its 52-week high of 5.21% โ as the US-Iran conflict continued to roil risk appetite and mortgage rates surged to 7.45% on the 30-year fixed, extending a fifth straight week above 7%. The S&P 500 ended marginally lower, but the real damage showed in rate-sensitive and cyclical names. Asia reflected the divergence overnight: the Nikkei ยฅ66,410 gained +1.37% as bank stocks benefited from the higher-rate environment, while the Hang Seng HK$24,356 fell -1.64% and Shanghai Composite 3,888 CNY dropped -1.22% on geopolitical unease and weak risk appetite across Chinese markets.
The Setup
The risk picture entering September 25 is uncomfortable but not yet panicked. VIX sits at 15.67, up +3.23% on the day but well within its 52-week range of 14.21โ17.84 โ elevated enough to signal stress, not capitulation. The DE10Y hit 3.6, matching its 52-week high, while EURIBOR3M at 2.62 sits near its 52-week floor of 2.61, signaling ECB easing expectations remain anchored even as Bund yields surge. Breadth is narrowing: the S&P 500 Equal Weight trails the cap-weighted index by -2.0 points this week, and the Russell 2000 is -5.33% over the past month โ the rally is thin and concentrated in mega-cap tech and semiconductors (iShares Semiconductor ETF +87.97% ytd).
Today's Watch
The economic calendar is light โ Ireland consumer confidence (forecast 63 vs. prior 63.2) and Japan's BoJ meeting minutes are the only releases of note. With no major US data, the session turns on Treasury market momentum: whether 5.18% on the UST10Y holds or breaks toward 5.21% will set the tone. Watch the KOSPI, which leads Asia this week at +5.40%, for any reversal signal as the geopolitical premium builds.
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*This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
Equity markets
Closes to 2026-09-25.
Leader: KOSPI Composite Index +5.40% on the week (Asia). Laggard: Hang Seng Index -1.65% on the week (Asia).
US
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 7,704 | -0.02% | +0.87% | +12.54% |
| Nasdaq 100 Index | 30,479 | +0.03% | +3.50% | +20.71% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,350 | -0.31% | -0.83% | +6.84% |
Europe
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 Index | 636 | -0.54% | -0.96% | +7.47% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 Index | 6,272 | -0.43% | -0.80% | +8.31% |
| FTSE 100 Index | 10,680 | -0.24% | -1.26% | +7.54% |
| DAX Index | 25,267 | -0.57% | -1.75% | +3.17% |
| CAC 40 Index | 8,081 | -0.52% | -1.29% | -0.84% |
| IBEX 35 Index | 19,573 | -0.30% | -1.30% | +13.09% |
Asia
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 Index | ยฅ66,371 | +1.31% | +2.08% | +31.85% |
| TOPIX Index | ยฅ4,125 | +1.22% | +0.83% | +21.01% |
| KOSPI Composite Index (as of 2026-09-23) | โฉ7,081 | +0.90% | +5.40% | +68.03% |
| TAIEX Index (as of 2026-09-24) | NT$48,025 | -0.28% | +3.75% | +65.81% |
| Hang Seng Index | HK$24,343 | -1.69% | -1.65% | -5.02% |
| CSI 300 Index (as of 2026-09-24) | 4,439 CNY | -1.73% | -0.47% | -4.12% |
| Nifty 50 Index | โน23,103 | +0.17% | -1.04% | -11.58% |
| Straits Times Index | S$5,696 | +0.23% | +0.71% | +22.60% |
| FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI | RM1,671 | -0.07% | +0.34% | -0.53% |
| S&P/ASX 200 Index | A$8,658 | -0.51% | -0.84% | -0.65% |
Market Movers
๐ Top Gainers
- Twist Bioscience Corporation โ +16.11%
- GRAIL, Inc. โ +15.38%
- Securitize Corp. โ +15.11%
- CareDx, Inc. โ +13.0%
- Warby Parker Inc. โ +12.51%
- 10x Genomics, Inc. โ +11.23%
- Everpure, Inc. โ +11.15%
- Veracyte, Inc. โ +10.77%
๐ Top Losers
- ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. โ -12.78%
- Gen Digital Inc. โ -12.05%
- Gildan Activewear, Inc. โ -12.04%
- Viking Therapeutics, Inc. โ -11.76%
- Kinross Gold Corporation โ -11.59%
- MGM Resorts International โ -10.99%
- uniQure N.V. โ -10.38%
- First Solar, Inc. โ -10.32%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.67 | +3.23% | +1.49% | 14.21โ17.84 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.62% | +0.38% | -1.5% | 2.61โ2.68 | ๐ Easing |
| US 10Y | 5.18% | -0.58% | +3.6% | 4.79โ5.21 | ๐ Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.6% | +1.12% | +3.15% | 3.38โ3.6 | ๐ Bid |
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๐ฐ Yesterday's Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Rapidly rising rates, Fed hawkishness, and a surge in mortgage rates past 7% form a single interconnected policy-and-housing stress story.
- History shows financial calamities occur when rates rise rapidly like this: 'Something always breaks' โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
- Fed officials see rates likely rising to curb high inflation โ Reuters, 09/24/2026
- Mortgage rates climb for 5th straight week, pushing average rate on a 30-year home loan above 7% โ AP News, 09/24/2026
- Mortgage Rates Hit 7% as Iran War Fallout Crushes a Weak Housing Market โ The New York Times, 09/24/2026
- Mortgage Rates Just Hit 7%. Here's How the Housing Market Is About to Change. โ WSJ
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps sharply Thursday to 7.45% โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Surging Treasury yields are rippling across the economy โ raising car loans, mortgage rates, and posing a new challenge for the Fed under Kevin Warsh.
- Surging Treasury yields pose a brand new problem for Kevin Warsh and the Fed โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
- Analysis: Higher Treasury yields deliver a reality check on a hot, inflation-prone economy โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
- Here's what happens to the economy when Treasury yields soar like they are now โ CNBC, 09/23/2026
- Rising Treasury yields could push car loan rates higher, experts say. What buyers need to know โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
- US mortgage rates breach 7% as affordability pressures mount โ Financial Times, 09/24/2026
- Should you buy a home when rates are over 7%? Here are the best lenders for finding a deal โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy decisions, rising Treasury yields, and surging mortgage rates are converging into a unified pressure point across global fixed-income markets.
- Bank of England to raise rates in November if energy prices remain high โ Financial Times, 09/25/2026
- Morning Bid: When Treasuries catch Korea's volatility bug, take cover โ Reuters, 09/25/2026
- Switzerland is keeping rates at 0% โ for now โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
- Mortgage rates rise to 7.45% โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
- Nearly 10% of borrowers opted for riskier mortgages last week, as rates soared over 7% โ CNBC, 09/23/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Debate over whether the AI boom can sustain momentum against a backdrop of elevated interest rates.
- Watch AI Boom Can Withstand Higher Rates: Goldman's Moe โ Bloomberg.com, 09/25/2026
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Xi's economic governance failures highlight structural headwinds facing China's domestic economy.
- Xi's Economy Is Failing China's People โ WSJ
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Bond Selloff Worsens, Dinging Stocks โ WSJ, 09/24/2026
- Raging Conflict in the Middle East and Rising Yields Weigh on U.S. Stocks โ WSJ, 09/24/2026
- S&P 500 ends marginally lower as investors focus on US-Iran war โ Reuters, 09/24/2026
- Stocks Climb Back To Par โ WSJ, 09/24/2026
- Bond liquidation wrecks small caps. Here's how bad some traders see it getting โ CNBC, 09/24/2026
- Nikkei Rises 0.5%, Led by Bank Stocks โ WSJ, 09/25/2026
- The Robust U.S. Economy Powers Through Rate Hikes and Rising Bond Yields โ WSJ, 09/25/2026
- Nasdaq notches record-high close, AI optimism reignites and Treasury yields retreat โ Reuters, 09/21/2026
- Stocks had a great day on the surface. But something alarming occurred not seen since 1999 โ CNBC, 09/21/2026
- U.S. Stocks Decline as Treasury Selloff Deepens โ WSJ, 09/23/2026