DeepCap Wednesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: Manufacturing PMI data tests economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 17.83, -1.05%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI release |
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Key Headlines
-
Fed to Hold Rates Before Powell Cedes Hot Seat to Warsh
Central bank policy decisions and rate path dynamics amid geopolitical tensions. -
All Eyes On Powell With US Fed Expected To Hold Rates Steady
Central bank policy decisions and rate expectations from Fed and BoJ. -
Despite Trade Turmoil, Canada’s Economy Is Expected to Grow and Deficit to Fall
Economic growth dynamics and fiscal conditions across regions.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Markets shrugged off geopolitical tensions as the VIX dropped 1.05% to 17.83, signaling muted fear despite ongoing Iran concerns and trade uncertainty. The disconnect between headline risks and actual volatility suggests traders are either positioned defensively or betting on containment. This calm could prove fragile if today’s data disappoints or geopolitical developments escalate beyond current expectations.
The Setup
Bond markets tell a different story than equities, with US 10-year yields climbing 0.23% to 4.35% – hitting new 52-week highs. German yields surged even more aggressively, up 0.99% to 3.07%, while EURIBOR remains depressed at 2.17%. The yield curve steepening suggests inflation concerns are overriding safe-haven demand, despite war risks. EUR/USD holding flat at 1.17 masks this underlying tension between European and US monetary policy expectations.
Today’s Watch
The economic calendar offers little market-moving data, with only Singapore’s manufacturing PMI releases at 1:00 PM local time. The previous reading of 50.5 sits right at the expansion/contraction threshold, making any deviation potentially significant for regional sentiment. More importantly, the quiet data slate means markets will likely focus on any geopolitical developments or comments from central bankers. The CFTC commitment of traders data releases this afternoon could reveal whether institutional positioning aligns with the apparent complacency in volatility measures. With yields at elevated levels and equities seemingly disconnected from macro risks, today’s session hinges on whether this calm persists or cracks under the weight of unresolved tensions.
Market Movers
📈 Top Gainers
- Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Interna — +23.48%
- Maase Inc. — +21.37%
- Omnicell, Inc. — +20.94%
- Sanmina Corporation — +14.56%
- CECO Environmental Corp. — +14.43%
- Centene Corporation — +13.95%
- Commvault Systems, Inc. — +10.82%
- Revolution Medicines, Inc. — +9.99%
📉 Top Losers
- Vistance Networks, Inc. — -49.31%
- Erasca, Inc. — -48.3%
- Rambus, Inc. — -21.17%
- Navitas Semiconductor Corporati — -17.38%
- Celestica, Inc. — -14.37%
- Relay Therapeutics, Inc. — -12.84%
- Spotify Technology S.A. — -12.43%
- Sportradar Group AG — -11.41%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 05/01 | CA | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 05/01 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 05/01 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 05/01 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 05/01 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 🔸 Med |
Fed Speak This Week
- May 1 — BoE Member Pill Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.83 | -1.05% | -8.56% | 17.48–19.5 | 📉 Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.17% | +0.46% | -0.91% | 2.16–2.24 | 📉 Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.35% | +0.23% | +1.16% | 4.25–4.35 | 📈 Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.07% | +0.99% | +2.33% | 2.96–3.1 | Neutral |
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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy decisions and rate path dynamics amid geopolitical tensions.
- Fed to Hold Rates Before Powell Cedes Hot Seat to Warsh — Bloomberg.com, 04/29/2026
- Gold steady as markets await Powell’s comments on Iran war impact — Reuters, 04/29/2026
- Bank of Canada to Hold Rates Steady While War Worries Brew — WSJ, 04/28/2026
- Inflation could get in the way of Warsh’s desire to cut interest rates, CNBC survey finds — CNBC, 04/28/2026
- Ray Dalio says Kevin Warsh shouldn’t cut interest rates in a ‘stagflation’ era — CNBC
- US bond markets diverge as Middle East conflict tests Fed outlook — Reuters, 04/28/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy decisions and rate expectations from Fed and BoJ.
- All Eyes On Powell With US Fed Expected To Hold Rates Steady — Barron’s, 04/29/2026
- Here’s everything to expect when the Fed issues its latest interest rate decision Wednesday — CNBC, 04/28/2026
- VIEW Investors react to BOJ’s decision to hold rates — Reuters, 04/28/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic growth dynamics and fiscal conditions across regions.
- Despite Trade Turmoil, Canada’s Economy Is Expected to Grow and Deficit to Fall — The New York Times
- Canada’s deficit lower than expected thanks to higher oil prices — BBC, 04/29/2026
- What Japan signals about the war-hit economy — Axios, 04/28/2026
- Iranians Feel the Pain as Their Economy Descends Into a Death Spiral — WSJ, 04/29/2026
- Iran’s economy has been battered. Its leaders still think Trump will blink first — AP News
- Ukraine Hits Russia’s Oil Machine, but Struggles to Dent Its Economy — WSJ
Market Moves & Daily Wraps
Regional market moves and cross-asset session dynamics.
- Asia-Pacific markets open mixed after OPEC shock, tech jitters drag Wall Street lower — CNBC, 04/28/2026
Sectors & Corporate Movers
Individual company earnings and sector-specific performance updates.
- Robinhood Profit Rises on Boost From Prediction Markets, Gold Subscriptions — WSJ, 04/28/2026
- Edison International posts steady profit growth on rising electricity rates — Reuters, 04/28/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- NIESR slashes UK growth forecast as Iran war and inflation hit economy — Reuters, 04/28/2026
- China’s Economy Starts to Show Cracks From Iran War — The New York Times
- Iran War Shakes Global Economy, but the U.S. Has Mostly Been Spared — The New York Times, 04/27/2026
- UAE Says It Will Leave OPEC as Iran War Strains Oil Markets — The New York Times, 04/28/2026
- European markets close lower as Iran reportedly makes peace proposal — CNBC, 04/27/2026
- AI capex to drive earnings and markets, but expect volatility: Citi’s Kate Moore — CNBC, 04/28/2026
- Markets are dealing with a boom and a shock at the same time, says CIO Group’s Steven Wieting — CNBC, 04/28/2026
- Investors may want to start dollar-cost selling, says Renaissance Macro’s Jeff deGraaf — CNBC, 04/28/2026
- ‘See through’ Iran war? Markets exploit permacrisis instead — Reuters, 04/28/2026
- CNBC Markets Now: April 28, 2026 — CNBC, 04/28/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Daily Discussion Thread for April 28, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-28
- Gordon Ramsay one of the first celebrity chefs to bring US-style 20% service charge to London — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-04-28
- My first (real) 1000x — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-28
- United Arab Emirates leaving OPEC, effective May 1 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-28
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 29, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-28
- Germany can now make more ammunition than the U.S. says defence giant boss — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-04-28
- Falklanders should ‘go back’ to England, insists Argentina in renewed war of words — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-04-28
- Ireland ‘languishing’ at bottom of EU defence spending table as budget stuck at 0.2% of GDP — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-04-28