DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: Asian markets rally on ceasefire optimism while mortgage rates drive US housing revival |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 18.92, -2.97%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: Tokyo Core CPI data release |
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Key Headlines
-
Bank of Japan seen dropping hawkish signs even as it keeps rates steady
Central bank policy decisions and rate impacts on housing and consumers. -
Kevin Warsh Pitched a Case for Fed Rate Cuts. His Future Colleagues Are Skeptical.
Fed policy discussions and rate-sensitive housing sector impacts. -
Mexico ‘shouldn’t be nostalgic’ about zero-tariff era, economy minister says
Trade policy shifts and bilateral economic relationships.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Middle East ceasefire extension drove risk-on flows across global markets, with Asian equities hitting fresh records and volatility retreating. The VIX dropped 2.97% to 18.92, signaling reduced fear premium as geopolitical tensions ease. However, mortgage rates sliding again sparked housing market optimism while Trump’s Fed pick Kevin Warsh telegraphed his monetary policy approach, creating cross-currents for rate-sensitive assets heading into today’s session.
The Setup
Bond markets present a mixed picture with US 10-year yields climbing 0.46% to 4.33% near 52-week highs, while European rates show divergence as German 10-year yields rose more modestly to 3.01%. The dollar held steady against the euro at 1.17, but underlying positioning data tonight could reveal whether this calm masks building tensions. EURIBOR’s 0.91% decline suggests European rate cut expectations remain intact, creating a policy divergence trade worth monitoring.
Today’s Watch
Tonight’s CFTC positioning data at 7:30 PM ET will reveal speculative flows across major currencies and commodities, with particular focus on natural gas (-186.9K previous) and precious metals positioning. Tokyo Core inflation data overnight will provide the first major economic signal, though no forecasts are available. The real catalyst may emerge from continued Middle East developments and any Fed communication following Warsh’s recent signals about his approach to monetary policy. Cross-asset flows favor risk assets, but bond market pressure could test equity resilience.
Market Movers
📈 Top Gainers
- Xanadu Quantum Technologies Lim — +51.75%
- Navitas Semiconductor Corporati — +20.48%
- Lightwave Logic, Inc. — +17.43%
- NuScale Power Corporation — +16.28%
- AXT Inc — +15.97%
- Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. — +15.89%
- Fermi Inc. — +15.81%
- Redwire Corporation — +15.71%
📉 Top Losers
- Avis Budget Group, Inc. — -37.82%
- Sportradar Group AG — -22.57%
- NextNav Inc. — -22.15%
- Sonoco Products Company — -16.22%
- Calix, Inc — -13.98%
- Travel Leisure Co. — -13.62%
- TE Connectivity plc — -9.1%
- EquipmentShare.com Inc — -8.32%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 04/24 | CA | Retail Sales | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 04/24 | CA | Retail Sales | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 04/24 | CA | Retail Sales Ex Autos | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 04/24 | CA | Retail Sales | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 04/24 | CA | Retail Sales | 🔸 Med |
Fed Speak This Week
- April 24 — CBR Press Conference
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.92 | -2.97% | +4.13% | 17.48–25.78 | 📉 Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.17% | -0.91% | -3.13% | 2.15–2.24 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.33% | +0.46% | +0.23% | 4.25–4.34 | 📈 Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.01% | +0.33% | -1.31% | 2.95–3.1 | Neutral |
|
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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy decisions and rate impacts on housing and consumers.
- Bank of Japan seen dropping hawkish signs even as it keeps rates steady — Reuters, 04/23/2026
- Turkey central bank holds rates at 37% as it eyes Iran war fallout — Reuters, 04/22/2026
- Trump’s Fed pick Kevin Warsh signals approach to rates — what a leadership change means for consumers — CNBC
- Mortgage rates sink again, and homebuyers jump back in — CNBC, 04/22/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed policy discussions and rate-sensitive housing sector impacts.
- Kevin Warsh Pitched a Case for Fed Rate Cuts. His Future Colleagues Are Skeptical. — WSJ, 04/20/2026
- Rates still limiting the upside for D.R. Horton, says Jim Cramer — CNBC, 04/22/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Trade policy shifts and bilateral economic relationships.
- Mexico ‘shouldn’t be nostalgic’ about zero-tariff era, economy minister says — Reuters
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Regional economic performance and structural economic challenges amid geopolitical stress.
- South Korea’s Economy Rebounds Amid Middle East War Risks — WSJ
- White House, UAE financial deal talk: Damage done by war to Mideast economy extends well beyond energy — CNBC, 04/22/2026
- Leader of Russia’s Communists warns parliament of risk of revolution due to faltering economy — Reuters, 04/22/2026
- Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster — The Economist, 04/21/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic growth data and regional economic performance indicators.
- South Korea’s Q1 GDP growth roars past market on booming AI-driven chip demand — Reuters, 04/22/2026
- Argentina’s economy records sharpest monthly contraction under Javier Milei — Financial Times
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- CNBC Daily Open: Markets cheer ceasefire — but hostilities continue — CNBC, 04/23/2026
- European stocks to open in negative territory as oil prices gain — CNBC, 04/23/2026
- Japan, South Korea stocks hit record highs as Iran ceasefire extension lifts sentiment — CNBC, 04/22/2026
- Morning Bid: How much risk can markets swallow? — Reuters, 04/23/2026
- CNBC Markets Now: April 22, 2026 — CNBC, 04/22/2026
- European stocks fall as Germany halves growth forecast, citing Iran war — CNBC, 04/22/2026
- Markets have positive momentum but may be overextended in the short-term: Wilmington’s Meghan Shue — CNBC, 04/22/2026
- Breakingviews – How markets’ post-Starmer fears might be allayed — Reuters
- Goldman Sachs’ Akila Raman to lead alternatives capital markets business, memo shows — Reuters, 04/22/2026
- War Has Sent Shipping Rates Soaring. 6 Stocks That Could Win, According to This Analyst. — Barron’s, 04/22/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- 2026 word of the year: retardmaxxing — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-22
- Daily Discussion Thread for April 22, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-22
- EU Moves to Ban Russian War Veterans From Entry — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-04-22
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 23, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-22
- EU chief groups Turkey with Russia and China as “threats to be countered,” sparking diplomatic firestorm — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-04-22
- Trump Administration Nearing Rescue Deal for Spirit Airlines — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-22