DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: Fed dissent and geopolitical tensions drive volatility higher |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 18.81, +5.5%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI release |
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Key Headlines
-
Fed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992
Fed policy decisions and mortgage rate impacts dominating monetary policy landscape. -
Morgan Stanley sees Fed holding rates steady in 2026
Central bank policy decisions and rate outlook amid geopolitical uncertainty and stagflation risks. -
European markets set for lower open as oil prices surge; ECB and BOE decisions ahead
Central bank policy decisions and rate path communications from Fed, ECB, and BOE.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady triggered the most divided board vote since 1992, signaling deepening uncertainty about the policy path ahead. This internal discord comes as mortgage rates surge amid Middle East tensions, creating a toxic mix for rate-sensitive sectors. The split decision undermines Powell’s consensus-building approach and suggests more volatility ahead as officials grapple with conflicting economic signals.
The Setup
Risk indicators paint a mixed picture heading into today’s session. The VIX jumped 5.5% to 18.81, approaching its 52-week high of 19.5 as uncertainty builds. Bond markets reflect this tension with the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.43% – its 52-week peak – while German bunds climbed 1.3% to 3.11%. EURIBOR’s sharp 0.92% decline to 2.15% contrasts with elevated long-term rates, creating an unusual curve dynamic that could pressure European banks. EUR/USD remains flat at 1.17, but this stability masks underlying cross-currents.
Today’s Watch
Singapore’s manufacturing PMI releases at 1:00 PM local time offer the first Asian economic pulse check, with the previous 50.5 reading sitting right at the expansion threshold. Any weakness below 50 could amplify concerns about global manufacturing momentum. The semiconductor sector deserves close attention after yesterday’s wild swings – Silicon Motion surged 45.8% while Teradyne plunged 19.4%, highlighting the sector’s earnings-driven volatility. With bonds at elevated levels and the VIX approaching stress territory, today’s session hinges on whether Asian data can provide stability or fuel further uncertainty about global growth prospects.
Market Movers
📈 Top Gainers
- Silicon Motion Technology Corpo — +45.8%
- MaxLinear, Inc — +29.82%
- The Vita Coco Company, Inc. — +29.67%
- Extreme Networks, Inc. — +28.15%
- Bloom Energy Corporation — +27.21%
- NXP Semiconductors N.V. — +25.59%
- The Chefs’ Warehouse, Inc. — +17.84%
- Rush Street Interactive, Inc. — +16.58%
📉 Top Losers
- Teradyne, Inc. — -19.41%
- SoFi Technologies, Inc. — -15.44%
- SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. — -15.37%
- Lemonade, Inc. — -14.85%
- Ashland Inc. — -13.77%
- Robinhood Markets, Inc. — -13.24%
- GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. — -13.16%
- Brookfield Renewable Corporatio — -12.52%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 05/01 | CA | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 05/01 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 05/01 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 05/01 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 05/01 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 🔸 Med |
Fed Speak This Week
- May 1 — BoE Member Pill Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.81 | +5.5% | -0.58% | 17.48–19.5 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.15% | -0.92% | -0.92% | 2.15–2.24 | 📉 Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.43% | 0.0% | +2.31% | 4.25–4.43 | 📈 Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.11% | +1.3% | +3.32% | 2.96–3.11 | 📈 Bid |
|
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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed policy decisions and mortgage rate impacts dominating monetary policy landscape.
- Fed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992 — CNBC, 04/29/2026
- Powell to Remain on Fed Board, Citing Legal Pressure From Trump — WSJ, 04/29/2026
- Mortgage rates surge to nearly four-week high as Iran headlines impact markets — CNBC, 04/29/2026
- Mortgage rates are rising again, but homebuyers are trickling back — CNBC, 04/29/2026
- Fed holds interest rates steady: Here’s what that means for credit cards, mortgages, car loans and savings rates — CNBC, 04/29/2026
- Interest rates expected to be held as uncertainty over Iran war continues — BBC, 04/29/2026
- Brazil central bank trims interest rates again, eyeing Iran conflict — Reuters, 04/29/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy decisions and rate outlook amid geopolitical uncertainty and stagflation risks.
- Morgan Stanley sees Fed holding rates steady in 2026 — Reuters, 04/30/2026
- 10-year Treasury yield jumps after Fed leaves rates unchanged, oil prices soar — CNBC, 04/29/2026
- Powell era ends with rates on hold, Fed hawks on the rise and a vow to keep governor’s seat warm — Reuters, 04/29/2026
- Four key takeaways from Jerome Powell’s final rate decision as Fed chair — BBC, 04/29/2026
- Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Rates, Leaves Next Move Unclear Citing War — WSJ
- Bank of England set to hold rates as Iran war clouds outlook — Reuters, 04/29/2026
- Will rates go higher in Europe this week? Central banks confront stagflation threat — CNBC, 04/29/2026
- Bank of Canada holds rates, says changes will be small if forecasts hold true — Reuters, 04/29/2026
- Savings rates drop even without Fed cuts. Here’s where you can still earn 4% on your cash — CNBC
- Starwood real estate fund halts redemptions as bet on lower interest rates bites — Financial Times, 04/30/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy decisions and rate path communications from Fed, ECB, and BOE.
- European markets set for lower open as oil prices surge; ECB and BOE decisions ahead — CNBC, 04/30/2026
- Fed Meeting Underscores Tough Task Ahead for Warsh — The New York Times, 04/29/2026
- Dollar ticks up after Fed keeps rates steady — CNBC, 04/29/2026
- ECB to hold rates steady but keep hikes firmly on the table — Reuters, 04/29/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic growth patterns and resilience themes across major economies.
- Russia’s economy shows first quarterly contraction in three years — Reuters
- US economy ‘quite resilient’, should keep growing above 2%, Fed’s Powell says — Reuters, 04/29/2026
- France’s Economy Stalled in First Quarter — WSJ
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic growth concerns and demographic shifts affecting economic fundamentals.
- Retiring Boomers Are Starting to Weigh on the U.S. Economy — Barron’s, 04/29/2026
- UK firms’ worries about economy rise by most since 2020, Lloyds survey shows — Reuters, 04/29/2026
- Iranians Feel the Pain as Their Economy Descends Into a Death Spiral — WSJ, 04/29/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Israel’s economy and financial markets are booming — even as conflict rages in the Middle East — CNBC
- ‘Peak pound’ may be over as multiple risks mount for UK markets — Reuters, 04/30/2026
- A Crude Awakening on Inflation Is Hitting Markets — Bloomberg.com, 04/30/2026
- Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as oil climbs on Iran tensions, Fed holds rates — CNBC, 04/29/2026
- Mattel Defies Expectations, As Sales Accelerate Despite Macro Uncertainty — WSJ, 04/29/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- JPOW NOT LEAVING – STAYING ON AS GOVERNOR — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-29
- Good Afternoon. — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-29
- Daily Discussion Thread for April 29, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-29
- Stunt on these hoes Nana. — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-29
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 30, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-29
- Jerome Powell says he will continue to serve as a Fed governor even after chairmanship ends — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-29
- Exclusive: Nigel Farage was given undisclosed £5m by crypto billionaire in 2024 — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-04-29