DeepCap Weekly Wrap
The Week at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: Soft jobs data calmed rate fears, but 5.28% 10Y yields kept pressure on |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.31) |
| ๐ก | Key Takeaway: With 10Y yields at 5.28%, equity resilience depends entirely on labor market softening continuing |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Weekly Performance โ |
Top 5 Headlines That Shaped the Week
-
US economy adds just 29,000 jobs in September as hiring slows sharply
The weakest payrolls print in years cooled rate-hike bets and drove a broad equity rally. -
Mortgage Rates Surge, Notching Largest Weekly Gain in Four Years
Surging mortgage rates deepened housing-market paralysis and pressured rate-sensitive sectors all week. -
Micron beats on earnings and issues strong guidance as data center revenue jumps 11-fold
Micron's blowout results lifted the broader semiconductor and AI-infrastructure trade. -
China Resumes Curbs on Fuel Exports, Tightening Global Energy Markets
Beijing's export restrictions tightened global diesel supply, lifting oil prices and energy stocks. -
Nike shares drop as retailer posts disappointing sales, announces layoffs as part of restructuring
Nike's revenue miss and restructuring signal weakening consumer demand, dragging retail sentiment.
The Week in Review
The Big Picture
The dominant story this week was the US 10-year Treasury yield pushing to 5.28% โ touching its highest level since 2002 โ before pulling back slightly after Friday's softer-than-expected jobs data. That single number drove almost everything else: equity volatility, credit spreads, and the sharp divergence between rate-sensitive sectors and technology. Softer hiring data on Friday quieted the most aggressive rate-hike expectations and handed Nasdaq a weekly gain, but the bond selloff that characterized September extended into early October, with bonds posting their worst month in years. The UST 10-year's proximity to its 52-week high of 5.29% kept investors cautious. Europe offered a modest counterpoint โ the German 10-year (DE10Y) fell to 3.47%, down 3.61% on the week โ but the relief was insufficient to prevent broad EU equity declines. The US diesel supply standoff added another layer of complexity: Reuters reported Washington told France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face a US export ban, tightening global energy markets alongside China's resumption of fuel export curbs.
US Markets
The S&P 500 eked out a +0.24% weekly gain, closing at 7,723, while Nasdaq added +0.93% (Nasdaq 100 at 30,808, now +22.01% year-to-date and sitting at its 52-week high). The Dow lagged, falling -0.34% to 51,177. The divergence was stark: semiconductors surged, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF rising +2.83% on the week (+95.55% ytd), and the Technology Select Sector SPDR gained +1.80%. Financials were the week's clearest casualty โ the Financial Select Sector SPDR dropped -2.46%, down -7.23% over the past month. Micron's earnings beat, with data center revenue jumping eleven-fold, anchored the tech narrative. Among individual movers, Brazilian fintech Nu Holdings surged +9.81% and SpaceX-adjacent positions gained +9.27%. Corteva collapsed -84.67%, the week's most violent single-name move.
EU Markets
European equities retreated across the board. The STOXX 600 fell -1.14% to 631, the FTSE 100 dropped -2.18% to 10,462, the CAC 40 shed -2.24% to 7,897, and Spain's IBEX 35 lost -3.12% to 19,085. The DAX was the relative outperformer, down only -0.70% to 25,231. The VSTOXX volatility index spiked +11.86% on the week, signaling genuine stress rather than routine repositioning. Nokia added +4.74%, a rare bright spot. The diesel supply dispute with Washington and persistent energy market tightening weighed on sentiment.
Asia Markets
Asia split sharply. The Nikkei 225 led all global indices, climbing +2.93% to ยฅ68,309, supported by yen dynamics and broader tech optimism. The TAIEX rose +0.94% to NT$48,476, now +67.37% year-to-date. China was the week's regional laggard: the Shanghai Composite fell -2.78% to 3,842 CNY and the CSI 300 dropped -3.53% to 4,358 CNY, pressured by fuel export restrictions and lingering domestic demand concerns. The Hang Seng lost -2.19% to HK$23,972. The KOSPI dipped -1.09% to โฉ7,004, though the KOSDAQ surged +5.78%, signaling speculative appetite in Korean smaller-caps. The ASX 200 was effectively flat, gaining +0.20% to A$8,682.
Equity markets
Closes to 2026-10-02.
Leader: Nikkei 225 Index +2.93% on the week (Asia). Laggard: CSI 300 Index -3.53% on the week (Asia).
US
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 7,723 | +0.73% | -0.27% | +12.81% |
| Nasdaq 100 Index | 30,808 | +1.00% | +0.65% | +22.01% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,177 | +0.49% | -1.26% | +6.48% |
Europe
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 Index | 631 | +0.75% | -1.14% | +6.61% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 Index | 6,238 | +1.02% | -1.02% | +7.72% |
| FTSE 100 Index | 10,462 | +0.32% | -2.18% | +5.34% |
| DAX Index | 25,231 | +1.17% | -0.70% | +3.02% |
| CAC 40 Index | 7,897 | +0.79% | -2.24% | -3.10% |
| IBEX 35 Index | 19,085 | +0.42% | -3.12% | +10.27% |
Asia
| Index | Level | 1D | 1W | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 Index | ยฅ68,309 | -0.94% | +2.93% | +35.70% |
| TOPIX Index | ยฅ4,091 | -0.99% | -0.91% | +20.01% |
| KOSPI Composite Index | โฉ7,004 | +0.46% | -1.09% | +66.20% |
| TAIEX Index | NT$48,476 | +0.25% | +0.94% | +67.37% |
| Hang Seng Index | HK$23,972 | -2.60% | -2.19% | -6.47% |
| CSI 300 Index (as of 2026-09-30) | 4,358 CNY | +0.29% | -3.53% | -5.88% |
| Nifty 50 Index (as of 2026-10-01) | โน22,422 | -0.88% | -2.78% | -14.19% |
| Straits Times Index | S$5,635 | -0.58% | -1.34% | +21.28% |
| FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI | RM1,631 | +0.03% | -2.44% | -2.93% |
| S&P/ASX 200 Index | A$8,682 | +0.79% | +0.20% | -0.37% |
Weekly Market Movers
๐ Week's Top Gainers
- Nu Holdings Ltd. โ +9.81%
- Space Exploration Technologies โ +9.27%
- Banco Bradesco Sa โ +8.96%
- Itau Unibanco Banco Holding SA โ +7.51%
- Nokia Corporation Sponsored โ +4.74%
- Super Micro Computer, Inc. โ +4.57%
- Tesla, Inc. โ +3.68%
- Pacific Gas & Electric Co. โ +3.1%
๐ Week's Top Losers
- Corteva, Inc. โ -84.67%
- Paramount Skydance Corporation โ -7.59%
- MARA Holdings, Inc. โ -7.27%
- AGNC Investment Corp. โ -7.08%
- Nike, Inc. โ -6.92%
- Ondas Inc โ -5.73%
- Stellantis N.V. โ -4.76%
- American Airlines Group, Inc. โ -4.29%
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.31 | -6.59% | +2.96% | 14.21โ17.71 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.13 | +0.89% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.6% | +0.39% | -0.38% | 2.59โ2.68 | ๐ Easing |
| US 10Y | 5.28% | +0.76% | +2.13% | 4.94โ5.29 | ๐ Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.47% | -1.7% | -3.61% | 3.46โ3.65 | ๐ Offered |
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โ ๏ธ Weekend Watch
Key developments to monitor before markets reopen:
- US 10-year yield at 5.28% โ watch weekend Fed commentary for signals on whether the move higher continues into Monday open.
- China fuel export curbs in effect; monitor weekend PBoC or energy ministry statements that could tighten global diesel supply further.
- Micron's strong data-center guidance sets tone for semis โ watch for any peer pre-announcements or analyst revisions over the weekend.
- VIX at 15.31 suggests complacency despite multi-decade yield highs; monitor Sunday-night S&P futures open for positioning shifts.
- US pressure on France and Germany over diesel stocks โ watch for European government responses that could escalate transatlantic energy tensions.
๐ฐ This Week's Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Multi-decade-high bond yields and their downstream effects on housing affordability and homeowner mobility.
- High mortgage rates are trapping homeowners in place, and making renovations harder to afford โ CNBC
- The Powerful Yet Fragile Force Propping Up Stocks and the Economy โ The New York Times
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Surging mortgage rates, Fed commentary cooling rate-hike bets, and bond market volatility all converge on the rate-path theme.
- Mortgage Rates Surge, Notching Largest Weekly Gain in Four Years โ WSJ
- Mortgage Rates Keep Climbing, Leading Some Buyers to Riskier Loans โ The New York Times
- How 7% Mortgages Are Wrecking the Home-Buyer Playbook โ WSJ
- Stocks dip, 2-year US yield falls after Fed's Williams cools rate hike bets โ Reuters
- Bond market zig zags threaten S&P 500's smooth ride โ Axios
Trade & Diplomacy
US leveraging export-ban threats and China tightening fuel exports highlight supply-chain and energy geopolitics.
- EXCLUSIVE: US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban, sources say โ Reuters
- China Resumes Curbs on Fuel Exports, Tightening Global Energy Markets โ The New York Times
Trade & Diplomacy
G7 coordination on strategic energy reserves under US pressure reflects supply-chain and geopolitical trade dynamics.
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Softening US hiring and Trump's framing of an economic perception problem point to consumer-level macro stress.
- Trump Says Economy Has 'Public Relations' Problem Amid High Prices and Slow Hiring โ The New York Times
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Equities close higher as softer jobs data quiets rate-hike expectations โ Reuters
- Nasdaq Leads Stocks Higher as Hiring Softens โ WSJ
- Stocks rise after weak US jobs data but bonds resume selling โ Reuters
- Yields fall after US 10-year hits highest since 2002; US stocks inch up โ Reuters
- S&P 500 dips, Nasdaq higher after data shows moderate inflation rise โ Reuters
- Bonds post worst month in years; stocks decline for September and oil gains โ Reuters
- Equities end slightly lower as bond yields hold near multi-decade highs โ Reuters
- Stocks Climb as Calm Prevails Before Payrolls: Markets Wrap โ Bloomberg.com
- I'm even more bullish about stocks than a year ago โ Financial Times
- Most Americans blame Trump for high prices as his economic approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll shows โ AP News