DeepCap Weekly Wrap
The Week at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: AI infrastructure stocks explode higher — Nebius +51%, Super Micro +27%, CoreWeave +19% — as Nasdaq leads and VIX hits 52-week lows |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 14.25) |
| 💡 | Key Takeaway: AI infrastructure names dominated the week — Nebius, Super Micro, and CoreWeave surged 19-51% — even as the 10Y held at 4.7% and hawkish Fed signals from Hammack cloud the durability of the broader rally |
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Top 5 Headlines That Shaped the Week
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Secret outperformer: Dispelling the ‘myths’ about an unloved stock market (CNBC)
AI infrastructure names led a broad equity surge — Nebius Group +50.82%, Super Micro Computer +26.64%, CoreWeave +19.36%, Nokia +17.85% — driving the Nasdaq up +1.45% on the week and pushing the VIX to a 52-week low of 14.25. -
Hormuz Ship Attacks Mount as US Vows to Cripple Iran’s Economy (Bloomberg.com)
Escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks threaten global oil supply and energy-exposed equities worldwide. -
AI boom predicted to drive Taiwan’s economy to grow fastest in four decades (Reuters)
Taiwan’s AI-driven growth surge signals sustained semiconductor demand, lifting chip-sector sentiment across Asia and the US. -
Hyperscaler AI borrowing binge shakes up foreign credit markets (Financial Times)
Big Tech’s massive AI debt issuance is repricing credit spreads and crowding out sovereign borrowers globally. -
Fed should raise rates to restrain growth and inflation, Hammack says (Reuters)
A Fed official’s hawkish rate-hike call adds pressure on rate-sensitive equities even as broader indices grind higher on fading volatility.
The Week in Review
The Big Picture
AI infrastructure was the week’s dominant force. Nebius Group surged +50.82%, Super Micro Computer +26.64%, CoreWeave +19.36%, and IREN +13.73% — a clean sweep by companies supplying compute, power, and hardware to the hyperscaler buildout. Reuters flagged the AI boom’s bond market implications directly: sovereign yields are creeping higher as capital-intensive AI spending pressures credit markets globally, with the FT noting hyperscaler borrowing is already shaking up foreign credit. The UST 10Y finished the week at 4.7%, near its 52-week high of 4.74%, while Germany’s DE10Y hit its own 52-week peak at 3.23%. Fed’s Hammack added pressure by publicly calling for rate hikes to restrain growth and inflation — an outlier view, but one the bond market is beginning to price. VIX fell to 14.25, its 52-week low, suggesting equity markets are not yet alarmed. That complacency is worth watching.
Geopolitical stress ran underneath the surface. CNBC warned that Iran-related conflict risks halting the G7’s fastest-growing economy. Russia’s economic cracks are widening after months of defying sanctions pressure. China’s oil market dominance over OPEC adds a structural dimension to energy pricing that traditional macro frameworks are slow to absorb.
US Markets
The Nasdaq led with +1.45% for the week, driven by AI-adjacent names pulling the index higher. The S&P 500 gained +0.98%, a respectable print. The Dow Jones slipped -0.28%, a divergence suggesting rotation toward compute infrastructure and semiconductor-linked names. American Airlines fell -1.13% in a session where Bloomberg noted air travel data may carry broader economic signals.
EU Markets
European equities split. The DAX added +1.15%, benefiting from tech and industrial exposure — Nokia posted a +17.85% gain on the week. The STOXX 600 was flat at -0.05% and the FTSE 100 dropped -1.08%, dragged by commodity and financial exposure in a week where Iran risk and softer travel data weighed on sentiment. EURIBOR 3M held at 2.51%, its 52-week high, keeping European credit conditions tight.
Asia Markets
Asia delivered the week’s sharpest divergence. The KOSPI surged +11.49% to ₩6,978 — an extraordinary weekly move, likely tied to AI semiconductor supply chain demand centered on Korean chipmakers. The Nikkei 225 climbed +4.61% to ¥68,714, supported by yen dynamics and tech momentum. Against those gains, the Hang Seng fell -2.15% to HK$25,117 and the ASX 200 dropped -1.60% to A$9,115, with resource and financial exposure weighing on both. Shanghai Composite was essentially flat, finishing the week at 3,927 CNY (-0.33%), as China macro data offered little fresh catalyst despite the Economist’s note on Beijing’s tightening grip over global oil flows.
5-Day Market Performance
🇺🇸 US Markets
-
S&P 500
+0.98% -
Nasdaq
+1.45% -
Dow Jones
-0.28%
🇪🇺 EU Markets
-
STOXX 600
-0.05% -
DAX
+1.15% -
FTSE 100
-1.08%
🌏 Asia Markets
-
Nikkei 225 ¥68,714
+4.61% -
Hang Seng HK$25,117
-2.15% -
KOSPI ₩6,978
+11.49% -
Shanghai Composite 3,927 CNY
-0.33% -
ASX 200 A$9,115
-1.6%
Weekly Market Movers
📈 Week’s Top Gainers
- Nebius Group N.V. — +50.82%
- Super Micro Computer, Inc. — +26.64%
- CoreWeave, Inc. — +19.36%
- Nokia Corporation Sponsored — +17.85%
- IREN LIMITED — +13.73%
- Micron Technology, Inc. — +12.85%
- UWM Holdings Corporation — +12.77%
- Plug Power, Inc. — +9.95%
📉 Week’s Top Losers
- Itau Unibanco Banco Holding SA — -6.09%
- MARA Holdings, Inc. — -3.77%
- Riot Platforms, Inc. — -1.98%
- Grab Holdings Limited — -1.36%
- American Airlines Group, Inc. — -1.13%
- Apple Inc. — -0.76%
- Ondas Inc — -0.75%
- Palantir Technologies Inc. — -0.68%
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.25 | -2.6% | -4.36% | 14.25–20.66 | 📉 Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.87% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.51% | 0.0% | +1.62% | 2.44–2.51 | 📈 Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.7% | +1.08% | +1.08% | 4.61–4.74 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 3.23% | +2.54% | +2.54% | 3.13–3.23 | 📈 Bid |
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⚠️ Weekend Watch
Key developments to monitor before markets reopen:
- Fed’s Hammack hawkish signal: watch for weekend Fed-speak reinforcing rate-hike rhetoric ahead of Monday open; 10Y at 4.7% is a pressure point.
- China oil market control narrative: monitor any OPEC response, weekend PBoC commentary, or Chinese trade/demand data that could shift energy positioning.
- Iran conflict risk: G7 growth impact headlines could escalate over weekend; watch Sunday futures open for energy and defense sector reactions.
- AI-driven bond yield pressure: hyperscaler credit binge in focus — any weekend rating actions or Treasury moves above 4.7% warrant attention Monday.
- VIX at 14.25 signals complacency; watch Taiwan economic data or cross-strait headlines that could reprice geopolitical risk into Monday’s Asia open.
📰 This Week’s Headlines (6 themes)
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters & Market Risks
AI-driven capital flows and borrowing are creating new pressure points in bond yields and credit markets, while Taiwan’s economy rides the AI boom.
- AI-driven surge in bond yields could be next risk for markets and growth — Reuters
- Hyperscaler AI borrowing binge shakes up foreign credit markets — Financial Times
- AI boom predicted to drive Taiwan’s economy to grow fastest in four decades — Reuters
Trade & Diplomacy: Iran Sanctions & Geopolitical Pressure
Both headlines cover escalating US-led economic pressure on Iran, including sanctions and Hormuz shipping threats.
- Hormuz Ship Attacks Mount as US Vows to Cripple Iran’s Economy — Bloomberg.com
- CNBC Daily Open: Washington tightens squeeze on the Iranian economy — CNBC
Rates & Central Banks
Fed officials signal hawkish intent to restrain growth and inflation via rate hikes.
Macro: Global Growth Signals & Consumer Stress
A range of macro indicators — from airline pricing to extreme weather damage to geopolitical war risks — paint a mixed picture of global economic momentum.
- What Your Plane Ticket Is Telling You About the Economy — Bloomberg.com
- Heat, Fire, Smoke and Storms Are Wreaking Havoc on the Economy — The New York Times
- The Iran war risks bringing the G7’s fastest-growing economy to a halt — CNBC
- Russia’s economy has defied the skeptics. Cracks are getting harder to hide — CNBC
- Peru’s Economy Unexpectedly Slows as Fishing, Agriculture Slump — Bloomberg.com
China/Asia Policy & Commodity Markets
China’s dominance in oil demand is reshaping OPEC’s traditional pricing power.
- China has wrested control of oil markets from OPEC — The Economist
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Regulators and banks step up scrutiny of prediction markets — CNBC
- Prediction markets and sports betting: How this UK exchange is trying to do both in the U.S. — CNBC
- Secret outperformer: Dispelling the ‘myths’ about an unloved stock market — CNBC
- The Markets Have Been on a Roll. Is It Time to Hedge Your Bets? — The New York Times
- Wisconsin, Michigan primaries expose limits of polls and prediction markets — CNBC
- Swiss Economy Grows at Fastest Rate Since 2021 — WSJ
- AI ‘Chipflation’ Washes Ashore in the UK Economy — Bloomberg.com
- New Yorkers Can’t Stop Lining Up for This Sushi — The New York Times
- Extreme heat spurs earliest-ever Champagne harvest, putting its famous taste to the test — CNBC