DeepCap Weekly Wrap
The Week at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Fed holds rates as three dissenters push for hikes; markets shrug |
| π | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 15.99) |
| π‘ | Key Takeaway: Equity gains despite Fed dissent signal markets are pricing out near-term rate hikes |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Weekly Performance β |
Top 5 Headlines That Shaped the Week
-
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Despite Three Votes for an Increase (The New York Times)
A three-dissenter split rattled Fed credibility and drove multi-year highs in Treasury yields. -
US economy grows at a sluggish 1.5% in second-quarter with inflation remaining stubbornly high (AP News)
Stagflation fears intensified as weak growth and sticky inflation complicated the Fed’s path forward. -
Microsoft rally lifts stocks, 30-year Treasury yield hits 19-year peak (Reuters)
Tech earnings drove broad equity gains even as surging long-end yields signaled persistent rate pressure. -
BOJ holds rates at 1%, warns of core inflation exceeding 2% target (CNBC)
BOJ’s hold alongside an inflation warning kept yen volatility elevated and global rate-path uncertainty alive. -
Dollar logs its worst week in over 3 months amid Fed doubts (Bloomberg)
Warsh’s credibility questions and the divided Fed vote sent the dollar to its sharpest weekly loss since spring.
The Week in Review
The Big Picture
The week ending August 2, 2026 was defined by a Federal Reserve that blinked β and markets that noticed. The FOMC held rates steady despite three dissenting votes calling for an immediate hike, putting Chairman Warsh’s credibility under direct scrutiny from both the press and the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.74%, its 52-week high, as investors absorbed the reality of a Fed internally fractured over inflation that, by officials’ own admission, remains too hot. Mortgage rates jumped to a one-year high alongside the yield move, adding a tangible economic cost to the policy standoff. EUR/USD held at 1.15 while DE10Y climbed to 3.23%, its own 52-week high, suggesting sovereign bond pressure is not a purely American problem. The VIX fell to 15.99 β down 13.94% on the week β which is less a sign of calm and more a reflection of equity markets choosing to read the hold as dovish, however contested that interpretation is.
US Markets
Equities shrugged off the Fed drama and posted a solid week: the S&P 500 gained +1.10%, the Dow Jones added +1.50%, and the Nasdaq trailed at +0.94%. The megacap earnings story drove the outperformance. Microsoft surged +19.43% and Amazon gained +17.37% on strong results, while Alphabet added +9.05%. The gains were concentrated enough to mask real damage elsewhere β Apple slid -8.31% and Micron dropped -8.57%, suggesting the market is sorting winners from losers rather than lifting all boats. Roblox was the week’s worst performer, falling -26.48%.
EU Markets
European equities outperformed Wall Street in percentage terms. The DAX led with a +3.50% weekly gain, the FTSE 100 rose +2.15%, and the STOXX 600 advanced +1.55%. Even as the ECB faces its own policy questions with EURIBOR 3M at 2.48%, European sentiment held up well. China’s signals of only cautious economic support β a key concern for European exporters β did not derail sentiment this week, though the risk remains live heading into August.
Asia Markets
Asia delivered a mixed but mostly constructive picture. The Hang Seng rose to HK$25,884, up +3.69% for the week, as Hong Kong-listed names benefited from the broader risk appetite. The ASX 200 gained to A$8,977, up +2.33%. The Shanghai Composite edged to 3,832 CNY, up just +0.47%, consistent with Beijing signaling limited stimulus ambition. The Nikkei 225 slipped -0.39% for the week to Β₯64,362, even as the BOJ held rates at 1% while warning that core inflation could exceed its 2% target β a hawkish tilt that weighed on Japanese equities over the period. The KOSPI at β©6,595 fell -1.42% on the week despite an extraordinary +17.91% single-session surge on Thursday, a move that warrants close scrutiny for its underlying catalyst.
5-Day Market Performance
πΊπΈ US Markets
-
S&P 500
+1.1% -
Nasdaq
+0.94% -
Dow Jones
+1.5%
πͺπΊ EU Markets
-
STOXX 600
+1.55% -
DAX
+3.5% -
FTSE 100
+2.15%
π Asia Markets
-
Nikkei 225 Β₯64,362
-0.39% -
Hang Seng HK$25,884
+3.69% -
KOSPI β©6,595
-1.42% -
Shanghai Composite 3,832 CNY
+0.47% -
ASX 200 A$8,977
+2.33%
Weekly Market Movers
π Week’s Top Gainers
- Microsoft Corporation β +19.43%
- Amazon.com, Inc. β +17.37%
- AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc β +12.35%
- UiPath, Inc. β +9.81%
- Alphabet Inc. β +9.05%
- Newell Brands Inc. β +8.11%
- Grab Holdings Limited β +4.48%
- Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. – β +4.03%
π Week’s Top Losers
- Roblox Corporation β -26.48%
- Micron Technology, Inc. β -8.57%
- Apple Inc. β -8.31%
- Rivian Automotive, Inc. β -7.65%
- Ondas Inc β -6.61%
- AT&T Inc. β -4.79%
- Space Exploration Technologies β -4.52%
- SoundHound AI, Inc. β -4.37%
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.99 | -6.44% | -13.94% | 15.67β20.66 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.48% | +0.4% | -0.4% | 2.44β2.49 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.74% | +1.28% | +1.07% | 4.55β4.74 | π Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.23% | +1.57% | +0.94% | 3.14β3.23 | π Bid |
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β οΈ Weekend Watch
Key developments to monitor before markets reopen:
- Fed credibility watch: three dissenting votes signal internal fracture β any weekend Warsh comments could reprice rate expectations sharply Monday.
- BOJ held at 1% but flagged core inflation above 2% target; watch Sunday Asia open for yen reaction and any follow-up BOJ commentary.
- China signaled only cautious stimulus amid stumbling economy; weekend PBoC or State Council statements could move Asia equities and commodities at open.
- US 10Y at 4.74% with mortgage rates at one-year highs β monitor Treasury futures Sunday night for any further yield pressure heading into Monday session.
- Hungary nuclear shutdown risk: watch for weekend government response; regional energy market spillover could affect EU sovereign spreads Monday.
π° This Week’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
A cluster of Fed, BOJ, and mortgage-rate headlines dominate the week, with the Fed holding steady amid internal dissent and Warsh’s hawkish undertones sparking debate about the next move.
- Analysis: Markets heard a dovish Kevin Warsh. The Fed chairman’s own words suggest a rate hike β CNBC
- Fed rates dissenters make their case for higher rates β Axios
- Divided Fed holds interest rates steady, but three members voted to hike β CNBC
- Fed holds rates steady: What it means for credit cards, savings accounts, mortgages and auto loans β CNBC
- Average 30-year US mortgage rate rises to highest level in a year at 6.66% β AP News
- Instant View: Investors react to BOJ’s decision to hold rates β Reuters
- Trump wanted interest rate cuts to be ‘Rocket Fuel’ for the economy. He is losing that fight so far β AP News
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Global central banks hold rates amid inflation concerns, while Treasury yields hit multi-year highs and mortgage rates climb.
- Charting the Global Economy: Central Banks Hold the Line β Bloomberg.com
- BOE on Alert for Signs of Persistent Inflation as It Holds Rates β WSJ
- Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady. Here’s what that means for consumers β CNBC
- America In Focus: US economy expands at sluggish pace, mortgage rate hit the highest level in a year β AP News
- Dollar logs its worst week in over 3 months amid Fed doubts β Bloomberg
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
US economic momentum slows and job-market composition raises structural concerns, while Asian growth outlook stays measured.
- In Trump’s Economy, Job Gains Go to Women. That’s Not an Entirely Good Thing. β The New York Times
- The Economy Slows β The New York Times
- Malaysia Minister Sees Stable Second-Half Growth, Bernama Says β Bloomberg.com
- Indian companies plan for fresh price hikes, testing inflation outlook β Bloomberg
Market Moves & Daily Wraps
Broad equity and bond market sessions show tech-driven stock gains offset by surging multi-year Treasury yields.
- Stocks boosted by tech earnings; bond yields hit multi-year highs β Reuters
- Microsoft rally lifts stocks, 30-year Treasury yield hits 19-year peak β Reuters
Sectors & Corporate Movers
Energy sector corporate performance stands out as Big Oil capitalises on volatile commodity markets.
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- America’s Favorite Compact SUV Just Ditched the Gas-Only Option β WSJ
- New York sues Kalshi, says its prediction markets are illegal gambling β Reuters
- Data centre boom fuels demand for workforce housing β Bloomberg
- Fed Holds Rates Steady but Three Officials Vote for Increase β WSJ
- Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Despite Three Votes for an Increase β The New York Times
- Inflation Worries Prompted Fed Officials to Dissent on Holding Rates Steady β The New York Times
- Fed officials who voted to hike rates say action is needed now against inflation β CNBC
- Three Fed Officials Say Inflation Should Have Prompted Higher Rates β WSJ
- Exclusive | Fed’s Barkin Says It’s a ‘Close Call’ Whether Rates Are High Enough β WSJ
- Analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh’s credibility in question after leaving interest rates unchanged β CNBC