DeepCap Weekly Wrap
The Week at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Surging bond yields and tariff fears pressured equities on both sides of the Atlantic |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 18.58) |
| π‘ | Key Takeaway: Rising term premium is doing the Fed’s work β and then some |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Weekly Performance β |
Top 5 Headlines That Shaped the Week
-
Stocks sink on Big Tech cash burn; oil hits $100 for first time since May (Reuters)
Oil at $100 and AI spending blowouts drove the week’s sharpest equity selloff. -
Stagflation talk returns to rattle markets as oil rebounds to $100 (Reuters)
Surging oil plus tariff pressure revived stagflation fears, pressuring both stocks and bonds. -
Crucial Interest Rate Jumps to Highest Level of Trump’s Second Term (The New York Times)
Rising Treasury yields hit consumer borrowing costs and repriced risk across equity markets. -
Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices (CNBC)
Dimon’s blunt warning amplified bearish sentiment and drew broad mainstream financial coverage. -
European Central Bank holds interest rates at 2.25% after debating rise (Financial Times)
ECB’s hold amid internal rate-hike debate signaled policy divergence and weighed on European assets.
The Week in Review
The Big Picture
Rates dominated the week ending July 26. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.69% β near its 52-week high of 4.70% β as investors demanded higher term premiums to hold US debt. Tariff escalation under Trump and an Iran-linked energy shock drove oil and gasoline prices sharply higher, reviving rate-hike speculation that markets had shelved months ago. CNBC reported Fed funds futures pricing in a meaningful probability of a hike, a dramatic reversal from the rate-cut narrative that anchored H1. Mortgage rates hit their highest level in nearly a year, tightening the consumer squeeze. German 10-year Bund yields also rose to 3.2%, near their 52-week high of 3.23%, signaling the pressure is not purely a US story. VIX closed at 18.58 β still below its 52-week high of 18.77 but firmly elevated β suggesting investors absorbed the turbulence without full-blown panic.
US Markets
The S&P 500 fell -1.67% on the week, the Nasdaq dropped -2.88%, and the Dow shed -1.60%. Tech bore the heaviest selling: Tesla slid -13.50% while UiPath cratered -16.12% following earnings. Against that, AI-adjacent hardware names surged. Micron Technology jumped +14.41% and Super Micro Computer exploded +30.93%, underscoring that the AI infrastructure trade remains very much alive even as growth sentiment frays. Cleveland-Cliffs added +22.05%, likely catching a bid on steel tariff tailwinds. The divergence β legacy tech and rate-sensitive names down, AI-infrastructure plays and commodity beneficiaries up β defines the new rotation.
EU Markets
European indices held up better than Wall Street. The STOXX 600 lost -0.69% and the DAX dipped -0.61%, modest declines relative to the US selloff. The FTSE 100 bucked the trend with a +0.63% gain, benefiting from its heavy weighting in energy and commodity names as oil prices climbed. EURIBOR 3-month hit 2.49% β its 52-week high β signaling that European funding costs are tightening at the margin despite the ECB’s measured stance. EUR/USD held steady at 1.14, offering little relief or headwind for exporters.
Asia Markets
Asia absorbed the week’s anxiety unevenly. The Nikkei 225 fell to Β₯64,611, down -3.33% on the week and -2.73% on Friday alone β the region’s sharpest weekly loss, pressured by yen dynamics and global risk-off. The KOSPI dropped to β©6,691, off -1.91% weekly and a punishing -5.72% on Friday, reflecting South Korea’s acute sensitivity to trade and semiconductor cycle fears. The ASX 200 slipped to A$8,772, down -0.28%. Bucking the trend, the Hang Seng gained to HK$24,963 (+1.63% weekly) and the Shanghai Composite rose to 3,814 CNY (+1.33%), as domestic stimulus bets provided a partial offset to global pressure.
5-Day Market Performance
πΊπΈ US Markets
-
S&P 500
-1.67% -
Nasdaq
-2.88% -
Dow Jones
-1.6%
πͺπΊ EU Markets
-
STOXX 600
-0.69% -
DAX
-0.61% -
FTSE 100
+0.63%
π Asia Markets
-
Nikkei 225 Β₯64,611
-3.33% -
Hang Seng HK$24,963
+1.63% -
KOSPI β©6,691
-1.91% -
Shanghai Composite 3,814 CNY
+1.33% -
ASX 200 A$8,772
-0.28%
Weekly Market Movers
π Week’s Top Gainers
- Super Micro Computer, Inc. β +30.93%
- Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. β +22.05%
- Ondas Inc β +15.43%
- Micron Technology, Inc. β +14.41%
- MARA Holdings, Inc. β +9.43%
- Hecla Mining Company β +7.21%
- Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) β +5.98%
- AT&T Inc. β +4.6%
π Week’s Top Losers
- UiPath, Inc. β -16.12%
- Opendoor Technologies Inc β -13.5%
- Tesla, Inc. β -13.5%
- American Airlines Group, Inc. β -10.44%
- Grab Holdings Limited β -8.84%
- Comcast Corporation β -7.82%
- AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc β -7.32%
- Huntington Bancshares Incorpora β -3.65%
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.58 | -0.64% | -1.01% | 15.03β18.77 | β οΈ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.49% | +0.81% | +0.4% | 2.31β2.49 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.69% | -0.21% | +3.08% | 4.55β4.7 | π Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.2% | -0.93% | +1.59% | 3.0β3.23 | π Bid |
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β οΈ Weekend Watch
Key developments to monitor before markets reopen:
- Iran-Israel tensions: any ceasefire signals or escalation over weekend directly impacts oil prices and risk sentiment Monday open.
- US 10Y yield at 4.69% β watch for weekend Fed commentary or Treasury auction demand signals that could push yields higher.
- China weekend data or PBoC commentary: any stimulus signals or PMI revisions could shift Asia open tone significantly.
- Oil prices: Iran conflict premium embedded in crude β weekend geopolitical headlines could gap energy stocks sharply at Monday open.
- VIX at 18.58 suggests residual unease; monitor any Trump tariff announcements or trade policy statements issued outside market hours.
π° This Week’s Headlines (6 themes)
Surging Yields, Rate Hikes & Mortgage Costs
A cluster of stories about rising bond yields, Fed rate-hike odds, and mortgage rates hitting multi-year highs, all pointing to tightening financial conditions.
- Crucial Interest Rate Jumps to Highest Level of Trump’s Second Term β The New York Times
- Odds of Federal Reserve rate hike surge as oil prices rip higher β CNBC
- What Surging Bond Yields Mean for Consumers and Markets β WSJ
- Why bond investors are pushing up some of your interest rates β CNBC
- Investors want a bigger reward for lending money β Axios
- Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Levels in Nearly a Year β WSJ
Trump Tariffs & Iran War as Macro Headwinds
Trade policy shocks and geopolitical conflict (Iran war) are identified as twin threats to U.S. economic resilience and global supply chains.
- What Trump’s Latest Tariffs Mean for the American Economy β WSJ
- Iran War and Trump’s Tariffs Threaten a Resilient U.S. Economy β The New York Times
- It’s one choke point after another in the global economy β Axios
- Analysis: Iran war energy shock hits the U.S. economy as gas and diesel prices climb β CNBC
AI Boom Underpinning Stocks & the Economy
Coverage examining the degree to which markets and economic growth are now contingent on continued AI expansion, raising concentration risk questions.
- Stocks and the Economy Are Increasingly Relying on the A.I. Boom β The New York Times
Market Wrap: Volatility Subsides
A market-session wrap noting that a turbulent week in financial markets found some equilibrium.
- Wild Markets Week Settles Down β WSJ
Corporate & Sector Moves
Firm-specific and sector-specific developments including Goldman Sachs expanding private markets access and Israeli banks threatening to cut off Palestinian financial ties.
- Goldman Sachs creates private markets platform as rich investors seek the next SpaceX and Stripe β CNBC
- Israeli Banks Threaten to Cut Off Palestinian Economy, Deepening Crisis β The New York Times
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- The world’s balance-sheet is out of kilter with its economy β The Economist
- Is the Fed About to Hike Rates? β WSJ
- Why the Federal Reserve should hike rates next week β CNBC
- European Central Bank holds interest rates at 2.25% after debating rise β Financial Times
- Rising Interest Rates Are a Danger for Marketsβand a Reason to Own TIPS β Barron’s
- Russia’s central bank gingerly cuts rates, caught between business complaints and inflation β AP News
- A Global Economy Jolted by an Oil Shock Now Gets a Tariff Reminder β The New York Times
- Stagflation talk returns to rattle markets as oil rebounds to $100 β Reuters
- Infrastructure Threats Rattle Markets β WSJ
- Stocks sink on Big Tech cash burn; oil hits $100 for first time since May β Reuters