DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

CPI print tests rate-cut hopes as oil jitters and AI volatility linger

DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

The Day at a Glance

๐ŸŽฏ Theme: CPI print tests rate-cut hopes as oil jitters and AI volatility linger
๐Ÿ“Š Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.46, +3.76%)
โฐ Key Event: US CPI release today โ€” pivotal for higher-for-longer rate narrative
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Key Headlines

  1. AI-Dominated Leveraged ETFs Are Rattling Markets
    AI-driven leverage and ETF mechanics are amplifying market volatility, while Goldman signals cautious optimism for staying invested.
  2. Oil Extends Gains as Hormuz Deal Remains Elusive: Markets Wrap
    Cross-asset session and daily-wrap headlines driven by the US-Iran Hormuz standoff and its knock-on effect on equities and oil.
  3. The Republican Party Is Losing Its Edge With Voters on the Economy
    The Republican Party’s slipping economic credibility with voters signals a shifting political landscape ahead of electoral cycles.

The Day Ahead

Yesterday’s Takeaway

The dominant story on August 10 was the fading prospect of a Strait of Hormuz deal, which dragged Wall Street lower and kept oil risk elevated. Among the session’s notable losers, Coherent Corp. fell -14.24%, Silicon Motion -9.96%, and nLIGHT -9.17%. Overnight, Asia was split: the Nikkei surged to ยฅ66,970 (+2.08% day, +5.04% on the week), while the Hang Seng slipped to HK$25,722 (-0.83%) and Shanghai edged down to 3,956 CNY (-0.27%), reflecting divergent sentiment between Japan’s export-driven optimism and China-facing caution.

The Setup

Rate anxiety is hardening. UST10Y sits at 4.71 (+1.29% day), within a whisker of its 52-week high of 4.74 โ€” a level that has historically tightened financial conditions enough to matter. DE10Y echoes at 3.19 (+1.27% day), near its own 52-week ceiling of 3.23. EUR/USD dropped to 1.15 (-0.86% day), a meaningful single-session move suggesting dollar demand is back. VIX at 15.46 (+3.76% day) remains technically subdued but is trending off its 52-week low of 14.9 โ€” complacency is quietly eroding. EURIBOR3M at 2.47 is pinned near its 52-week low of 2.44, underscoring the ECB-Fed policy divergence that’s pressuring the euro.

Today’s Watch

Today’s (08/11) calendar is genuinely light. The week’s more consequential scheduled releases fall on Friday 08/14: CFTC positioning data (19:30 UTC), Nigeria’s July CPI print, and โ€” most importantly โ€” US July Retail Sales (forecast +0.2% m/m), which will give the first hard read on consumer resilience under elevated rates. The real near-term test is whether UST10Y consolidates below 4.74 or breaks to new 52-week highs, which would force a reassessment of equity valuations broadly. Watch Fastly (+20.86%) and Bending Spoons (+15.70%) for follow-through, and monitor whether the Hormuz headline risk escalates further into the week’s close.

Market Movers

๐Ÿ“ˆ Top Gainers

  • AbCellera Biologics Inc. โ€” +34.78%
  • Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock โ€” +27.27%
  • National Energy Services Reunit โ€” +23.33%
  • Fastly, Inc. โ€” +20.86%
  • Bending Spoons S.p.A. โ€” +15.7%
  • Calumet, Inc โ€” +15.17%
  • Helmerich & Payne, Inc. โ€” +12.86%
  • 10x Genomics, Inc. โ€” +12.57%

๐Ÿ“‰ Top Losers

  • Bitdeer Technologies Group โ€” -20.08%
  • AXT Inc โ€” -16.67%
  • Coherent Corp. โ€” -14.24%
  • Silicon Motion Technology Corpo โ€” -9.96%
  • Nayax Ltd. โ€” -9.95%
  • nLIGHT, Inc. โ€” -9.17%
  • X-Energy, Inc. โ€” -8.87%
  • MaxLinear, Inc โ€” -8.72%

Key Events Today

Date Region Event Impact
Fri 08/14 US Retail Sales Ex Autos ๐Ÿ”ธ Med
Fri 08/14 US Retail Sales ๐Ÿ”ธ Med
Fri 08/14 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos ๐Ÿ”ธ Med
Fri 08/14 US Retail Sales ๐Ÿ”ธ Med

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level ฮ” d/d ฮ” w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 15.46 +3.76% -2.52% 14.9โ€“20.66 ๐Ÿ“‰ Subdued
EUR/USD 1.15 -0.86% โ€” โ€” Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.47% -0.4% -0.4% 2.44โ€“2.5 Neutral
US 10Y 4.71% +1.29% +0.64% 4.61โ€“4.74 Neutral
DE 10Y 3.19% +1.27% +0.63% 3.13โ€“3.23 Neutral

๐Ÿ” Today’s DeepList Spotlight

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๐Ÿ“ฐ Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)

AI/Tech Valuation Jitters

AI-driven leverage and ETF mechanics are amplifying market volatility, while Goldman signals cautious optimism for staying invested.

Market Moves & Daily Wraps

Cross-asset session and daily-wrap headlines driven by the US-Iran Hormuz standoff and its knock-on effect on equities and oil.

Elections & Economic Perception

The Republican Party’s slipping economic credibility with voters signals a shifting political landscape ahead of electoral cycles.

Rates, Central Banks & Monetary Policy

A cluster of rate-path headlines spanning the Fed, RBA, and emerging markets, all wrestling with persistent inflation and the ‘higher for longer’ narrative.

Trade, Diplomacy & Geopolitical Risk

The US-Iran Hormuz standoff is the dominant geopolitical driver of oil prices and broader risk sentiment across the session.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

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