DeepCap Tuesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: Dimon’s risk warning shadows markets as Iran tensions and Fed uncertainty persist |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 18.65, -0.64%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: ECB Chief Economist Lane speech (Fri 07/24) and flash PMIs across EU, UK, and US โ key reads on growth momentum amid elevated rates |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
-
Conflict Rattles Stocks, Bonds as Oil Holds Gains: Markets Wrap
Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is rattling cross-asset markets, with oil holding gains and equities and bonds under pressure. -
Coinbase trading results may fall short of expectations, according to prediction markets
Company-specific and regulatory news spanning fintech/crypto exchange earnings expectations and a market regulator enforcement action. -
New Zealand Central Bank Governor Has Time to Balance a Tricky Economy
Central bank posture, rate-path signals, and bond-market dynamics dominate across multiple regions as the Fed, RBNZ, African central banks, and Japanese corporates all navigate elevated or shifting rate environments.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Jamie Dimon’s blunt warning โ that he wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasuries at current prices โ landed as the session’s sharpest signal, cutting against what has been a broadly complacent investor base. U.S.-Iran tensions added a geopolitical layer, pushing African central banks to hold rates higher and keeping oil-market uncertainty elevated. Asia overnight offered a mixed read: the KOSPI surged +3.60% to โฉ6,751, the Nikkei jumped +2.90% to ยฅ66,002, yet the Shanghai Composite shed -3.44% on the week despite a +0.90% session bounce, underscoring China’s fragile growth story after Beijing vowed to hit its annual target following a weaker-than-expected economy print.
The Setup
The risk picture is tighter than the VIX headline suggests. At 18.65 โ essentially at its 52-week high of 18.77 โ the VIX has risen +8.68% on the week, signalling genuine stress beneath surface calm. The UST 10Y sits at 4.6, near its 52-week high of 4.62, with DoubleLine arguing elevated yields will anchor the Fed’s inaction. The DE10Y hit its own 52-week high at 3.18 (+0.95% on the day), tightening European financial conditions alongside EURIBOR3M at 2.48, just one basis point from its annual ceiling. EUR/USD at 1.14 is flat, offering no directional signal. Money funds keeping cash closer, per Bloomberg, reinforces the message: duration risk is not being rewarded.
Today’s Watch
The 13:45 ET flash PMI trio is the session’s pivot point โ consensus expects S&P Global Manufacturing at 54.5 and Services at 51.5; a miss on either reopens the growth-versus-rates debate Dimon flagged. New Home Sales at 14:00 ET (consensus +3.4%, reversing June’s -7.3% drop) tests housing’s resilience at current mortgage rates. ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks at 15:30 ET โ any pivot on the rate path could move EUR rates sharply given DE10Y at cycle highs. StoneX Group’s -31.34% collapse warrants attention for financial-sector contagion reads.
Market Movers
๐ Top Gainers
- Archer Aviation Inc. โ +19.59%
- Cipher Digital Inc. โ +16.97%
- X-Energy, Inc. โ +11.7%
- CleanSpark, Inc. โ +10.67%
- Beta Technologies, Inc. โ +10.59%
- Hut 8 Corp. โ +10.37%
- Galaxy Digital Inc. โ +9.39%
- ChronoScale Holdings Corporatio โ +9.31%
๐ Top Losers
- StoneX Group Inc. โ -31.34%
- Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. โ -12.06%
- Penguin Solutions, Inc. โ -11.89%
- HDFC Bank Limited โ -10.54%
- Maase Inc. โ -9.26%
- SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. โ -9.09%
- Bloom Energy Corporation โ -8.33%
- CAVA Group, Inc. โ -7.76%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 07/24 | UK | CPI | ๐ด High |
| Fri 07/24 | FR | S&P Global Services PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/24 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/24 | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/24 | DE | S&P Global Services PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/24 | EU | S&P Global Services PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/24 | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/24 | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/24 | UK | S&P Global Services PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 07/24 | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | ๐ธ Med |
Central Bank & Policy Calendar
-
July 24 โ ECB Lane Speech
[ecb]
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.65 | -0.64% | +8.68% | 15.03โ18.77 | โ ๏ธ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.48% | 0.0% | +2.9% | 2.31โ2.49 | ๐ Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.6% | 0.0% | +0.22% | 4.47โ4.62 | ๐ Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.18% | +0.95% | +1.6% | 2.91โ3.18 | ๐ Bid |
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๐ฐ Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Market Moves & Daily Wraps
Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is rattling cross-asset markets, with oil holding gains and equities and bonds under pressure.
- Conflict Rattles Stocks, Bonds as Oil Holds Gains: Markets Wrap โ Bloomberg.com, 07/21/2026
- Oil Markets on Edge as Houthi Rebels Threaten Shipping in the Middle East โ The New York Times, 07/20/2026
Sectors & Corporate Movers
Company-specific and regulatory news spanning fintech/crypto exchange earnings expectations and a market regulator enforcement action.
- Coinbase trading results may fall short of expectations, according to prediction markets โ CNBC, 07/20/2026
- India markets regulator penalises depository over 2022 malware attack โ Reuters, 07/20/2026
Rates & Central Banks
Central bank posture, rate-path signals, and bond-market dynamics dominate across multiple regions as the Fed, RBNZ, African central banks, and Japanese corporates all navigate elevated or shifting rate environments.
- New Zealand Central Bank Governor Has Time to Balance a Tricky Economy โ WSJ, 07/21/2026
- Money Funds Keep Cash Closer as Fed Leaves Markets Guessing โ Bloomberg.com, 07/20/2026
- How Climbing Rates Are Reshaping Japan’s Corporate Financing โ Bloomberg.com
- DoubleLine Says Higher Bond Yields to Help Fed Keep Rates Steady โ Bloomberg.com, 07/20/2026
- Iran War Risk Pushes African Central Banks to Hold Rates Higher โ Bloomberg.com, 07/21/2026
Iran/Geopolitical Risk & Market Contagion
Rising U.S.-Iran tensions are rippling through asset markets globally, from broad market jostling to African rate policy.
- U.S.-Iran Tensions Jostle Markets โ WSJ, 07/20/2026
China & Asia-Pacific Macro Outlook
China’s policy resolve to hit growth targets and South Korea’s Q2 slowdown reflect diverging but interconnected Asia-Pac macro pressures.
- China Vows to Achieve Annual Growth Target After Economy Weakens โ Bloomberg.com, 07/21/2026
- What is China’s next surprise for oil markets? Lower imports, higher fuel exports? โ Reuters, 07/21/2026
- South Korean economy likely slowed in Q2 after robust Q1 growth โ Reuters, 07/21/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Mexico economy to grow less than previously expected on trade concerns โ Reuters, 07/20/2026
- Markets looking for durable AI spending, not just blockbuster earnings: Strategist โ CNBC, 07/21/2026
- Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices โ CNBC, 07/20/2026
- Capital One defeats lawsuit alleging excessive credit-card rates โ Reuters, 07/20/2026
- CNBC Markets Now: July 20, 2026 โ CNBC, 07/20/2026
- Bernstein’s Ian Moore on why prediction markets are outpacing sports books โ CNBC, 07/20/2026
- Watch Clarida Sees Fed on ‘Wait and See Mode’ in 2026 Rates โ Bloomberg.com, 07/21/2026
- Markets price in two ECB rate hikes by early 2027 on inflation concerns โ Reuters, 07/20/2026
- The new Fed boss is tight-lipped. That might upset the markets โ Financial Times, 07/20/2026
- Dallas Fed President Logan calls for ‘modestly’ higher interest rates โ CNBC, 07/16/2026