DeepCap Tuesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Chip stocks lead Asia rebound; OpenAI files for IPO as AI giants head to public markets |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 18.92, -12.04%) |
| β° | Key Event: China credit data release (M2 Money Supply, New Loans, Total Social Financing) |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Odds of a Fed hike this year jump on prediction markets
Fed policy expectations and rate-sensitive market dynamics. -
Citadel Securities Sees Risk of Fed Forced to Raise Rates Soon
Federal Reserve policy outlook and rate environment driving strategic positioning. -
Markets are getting more skeptical on AI spend, says GQG’s Kersmanc
Market skepticism and selling pressure specifically tied to AI spending and tech valuations.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Tech resurgence dominated yesterday’s session as chip stocks led a broader market rebound, with Intel Corporation surging +11.19% and Cerebras Systems Inc. climbing +18.32%. The narrative shift from sector doom-loop fears to recovery hopes drove risk appetite across both equities and volatility markets. Asian overnight action reinforced this theme with KOSPI rebounding +7.68% to β©8,059 after last week’s 8.30% selloff, while Shanghai Composite added +0.69% to 3,987 CNY. The VIX collapsed 12.04% to 18.92, signaling diminished fear premium as investors rotated back into growth plays.
The Setup
Cross-asset signals paint a mixed picture heading into today’s session. While equity volatility compression suggests renewed risk appetite, bond markets tell a different story with UST10Y falling 0.22% to 4.56 while German 10-year yields rose 0.33% to 3.06, creating a notable divergence. EUR/USD held flat at 1.15, but EURIBOR3M remains elevated at 2.31, matching its 52-week high. The disconnect between falling US yields and rising European rates amid stable FX suggests region-specific monetary policy expectations are driving flows rather than broad risk sentiment.
Today’s Watch
China’s May credit data β including new loans forecast at 540 billion yuan versus April’s contraction of 10 billion β is due Friday, June 13 at 09:00 local time, and will test whether Beijing’s stimulus measures are translating into lending growth. The sharp rebound in KOSPI suggests Asian markets are pricing in policy support, but credit numbers will determine if that optimism extends to mainland China exposure. CFTC positioning data, due June 12 at 19:30, will reveal whether last week’s tech selloff triggered major spec unwinding, particularly in Nasdaq 100 futures where specs held -14.9K net short positions. Focus remains on whether yesterday’s chip rally can sustain without fresh catalysts.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Tango Therapeutics, Inc. β +52.97%
- Galaxy Digital Inc. β +21.36%
- Cerebras Systems Inc. β +18.32%
- MARA Holdings, Inc. β +11.85%
- Oscar Health, Inc. β +11.75%
- IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. β +11.28%
- Intel Corporation β +11.19%
- Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. β +11.1%
π Top Losers
- Brady Corporation β -15.06%
- Argan, Inc. β -10.76%
- PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tb β -9.46%
- Fervo Energy Company β -8.76%
- The Ensign Group, Inc. β -8.15%
- Wix.com Ltd. β -7.98%
- Polibeli Group Ltd β -7.23%
- United Natural Foods, Inc. β -6.99%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.92 | -12.04% | +17.88% | 15.32β21.51 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.31% | 0.0% | +1.76% | 2.19β2.31 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.56% | -0.22% | +2.47% | 4.44β4.57 | π Bid |
| DE 10Y | 3.06% | +0.33% | +1.66% | 2.94β3.1 | Neutral |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed policy expectations and rate-sensitive market dynamics.
- Odds of a Fed hike this year jump on prediction markets β CNBC, 06/05/2026
- World Cup Season Spurs Citi’s Bearish Call on Rates Volatility β Bloomberg
- Markets will be sensitive to things like credit spreads or rates: Renaissance Macro’s Jeff deGraaf β CNBC, 06/08/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Federal Reserve policy outlook and rate environment driving strategic positioning.
- Citadel Securities Sees Risk of Fed Forced to Raise Rates Soon β Bloomberg, 06/08/2026
- Dollar Is Best Bet in New Global Regime of High Rates, BMO Says β Bloomberg, 06/08/2026
- Daiwa Real Estate Unit Aims to Raise Rents to Fight Higher Rates β Bloomberg, 06/09/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market skepticism and selling pressure specifically tied to AI spending and tech valuations.
- Markets are getting more skeptical on AI spend, says GQG’s Kersmanc β CNBC, 06/08/2026
- US Stock Futures Drop After Tech Selloff, Oil Up: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg, 06/07/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Geopolitical developments affecting economic relationships and regional stability.
- Why Trump’s War Hasn’t Broken Iran’s Economy β Bloomberg
- 100 days of the Iran war: How global markets and the economy have been affected, in charts β CNBC, 06/07/2026
- Breakingviews – Ukraine can help Europe rearm, and its own economy β Reuters, 06/09/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic growth stories and structural economic developments across regions.
- India’s economy expands at 7.8% over January to March β faster than expected β CNBC, 06/05/2026
- The World’s Most Surprising Economic Success Story Isβ¦North Korea β WSJ
- ‘Old people and children are quite similar’: China’s ‘silver economy’ shines as births plunge β Financial Times
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- China is innovative. Its economy is a mess. Which will win out? β The Economist, 06/08/2026
- China’s May shipments to U.S. clock 5-year high growth at 35% as overall exports jump on tech boost β CNBC, 06/09/2026
- Prabowo’s populist policies propel a ‘doom-loop’ in Indonesian markets β Reuters, 06/08/2026
- Indian economy, government finances, see mounting costs from Iran war β Reuters, 06/09/2026
- Stock market jitters remain amid tech fears and renewed Middle East attacks β BBC, 06/08/2026
- Chip Stocks Lead a Market Rebound β WSJ, 06/08/2026
- Index correlation means multi-dimention diversification across assets and markets is crucial: CIO β CNBC, 06/09/2026
- Stocks bounce back, oil pares gains as Iran and Israel signal a pause β Reuters, 06/07/2026
- Equity markets will stabilize and the rally can continue, says Blue Line Capital’s Bill Baruch β CNBC, 06/08/2026
- Hispanic voters increasingly disapprove of Trump in recent bipartisan poll β Axios, 06/08/2026