DeepCap Tuesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Markets climb despite Iran tensions as traders await positioning data |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 19.12, -0.57%) |
| β° | Key Event: CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions release |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Bessent says Fed should ‘wait and see’ before lowering rates, Semafor reports
Central bank policy positioning and rate path outlook from Fed, ECB, and RBA officials. -
RBA’s Hauser uncertain if rates adequate to control inflation
Central bank policy uncertainty and rate path developments across major economies. -
Americans hate the 2026 economy
Consumer sentiment and structural economic themes affecting growth outlook.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Markets staged a relief rally as geopolitical tensions around Iran eased, with stocks recovering to pre-conflict levels. The shift from crisis mode to cautious optimism drove the VIX down 20.89% over the week to 19.12, hitting new 52-week lows. This de-escalation narrative powered broad-based gains, though Treasury Secretary Bessent’s hawkish Fed commentary kept bond markets mixed, with US 10-year yields falling to 4.28% while German bunds climbed to 3.10%.
The Setup
Risk appetite remains fragile despite yesterday’s calm. The VIX at cycle lows suggests complacency may be building, while cross-asset signals show divergence. European rates are climbing faster than US counterparts, with 3-month Euribor hitting 2.20% (new 52-week highs) as the ECB maintains its hawkish stance. The dollar’s 0.85% decline against the euro to 1.18 reflects this rate differential, but positioning data will reveal whether this move has legs or represents profit-taking after recent volatility.
Today’s Watch
CFTC positioning data at 7:30pm ET will provide the clearest picture of how traders navigated the Iran crisis. S&P 500 net shorts at -45.7K and Nasdaq longs at 12.5K heading into the conflict suggest significant unwinding likely occurred. Natural gas positioning (-184K contracts short) will be particularly telling given energy market volatility. With no major economic releases scheduled, focus shifts to whether yesterday’s risk-on move can sustain without fresh catalysts. Currency positioning in emerging markets like Brazil (40.1K long real) and Mexico (57.5K long peso) could signal broader EM sentiment shifts if geopolitical stability holds.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Revolution Medicines, Inc. β +41.35%
- Xanadu Quantum Technologies Lim β +28.24%
- Avis Budget Group, Inc. β +23.69%
- Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. β +23.36%
- Almonty Industries Inc. β +15.32%
- Maase Inc. β +14.21%
- Oracle Corporation β +12.69%
- Credo Technology Group Holding β +12.35%
π Top Losers
- GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin β -9.55%
- Fastenal Company β -6.85%
- Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) β -5.47%
- Nextpower Inc. β -5.44%
- Dutch Bros Inc. β -5.4%
- Abercrombie & Fitch Company β -5.17%
- The Vita Coco Company, Inc. β -5.12%
- American States Water Company β -5.07%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
Fed Speak This Week
- April 17 β ECB Buch Speech
- April 17 β Bundesbank Buch Speech
- April 17 β Fed Barkin Speech (Neutral)
- April 17 β Fed Waller Speech (Hawk)
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.12 | -0.57% | -20.89% | 19.12β31.05 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | +0.85% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.2% | +2.33% | +5.77% | 2.08β2.2 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.28% | -0.23% | -0.47% | 4.28β4.44 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 3.1% | +1.31% | +3.33% | 2.95β3.1 | π Bid |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy positioning and rate path outlook from Fed, ECB, and RBA officials.
- Bessent says Fed should ‘wait and see’ before lowering rates, Semafor reports β Reuters, 04/14/2026
- RBA’s Hauser not sure interest rates are at the right level to tame inflation β Reuters, 04/14/2026
- Traders see clear path to higher-for-longer ECB rates β Reuters, 04/13/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy uncertainty and rate path developments across major economies.
- RBA’s Hauser uncertain if rates adequate to control inflation β Investing.com
- Euro zone bond yields rise as markets up ECB rate hike bets β Reuters, 04/13/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Consumer sentiment and structural economic themes affecting growth outlook.
- Americans hate the 2026 economy β Axios, 04/13/2026
- The ‘Annoyance Economy’ Is More Than Just Annoying β The New York Times
- Wall Street’s earnings fantasies may soon get harsh reality check β Reuters, 04/13/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic growth patterns, consumer spending pressures, and labor market dynamics across major economies.
- Consumer Spending, Engine of the U.S. Economy, Is Under Strain β The New York Times, 04/10/2026
- The Economy Is Growing, Jobs Aren’t. Why That Might Be OK. β WSJ
- China exports miss estimates in March, imports post best growth in more than four years β CNBC, 04/14/2026
Market Moves & Daily Wraps
Broad market moves and session wraps driven by geopolitical developments and oil price volatility.
- Stocks gain, oil and dollar retreat on hopes for US-Iran resolution β Reuters, 04/14/2026
- US stocks rally and return to where they were before the US-Iran war β AP News, 04/13/2026
- Stocks Fall, Yields Edge Higher as Oil Tops $100: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg, 04/13/2026
- Asia markets open higher amid hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal; China trade data in focus β CNBC, 04/13/2026
- CNBC Daily Open: Markets bet on a U.S.-Iran deal amid Hormuz blockade β CNBC, 04/14/2026
- From panic to pricing in: Are markets past ‘peak fear and sell-off’ despite oil price surge? β CNBC, 04/13/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- CNBC Markets Now: April 13, 2026 β CNBC, 04/13/2026
- Markets falling out of love with Italian debt as Meloni’s problems mount β Reuters, 04/13/2026
- Goldman Sets Tone for Q1 Earnings Season. How Markets React Is Key. β Barron’s, 04/13/2026
- Publicis posts 4.5% net revenue organic growth, maintains lead in US and Chinese markets β Reuters, 04/14/2026
- Westpac flags Mideast risk, weaker markets income; RAMS sale cost hits profit β Reuters, 04/13/2026
- How Trump’s Iran War Reversals Have Whipsawed Markets β WSJ
- Iran war weighs on global economy as IMF meeting starts β Reuters, 04/13/2026
- How Iran, Suffering Under Sanctions, Diversified Its Economy β The New York Times, 04/13/2026
- European markets set to rise on hopes that Iran peace talks can resume β CNBC, 04/14/2026
- Asia markets trade lower as oil surges after U.S. moves to blockade Iran ports β CNBC, 04/12/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Daily Discussion Thread for April 13, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-13
- Von der Leyen uses OrbΓ‘n defeat to push for end of veto in EU foreign policy β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-04-13
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 14th, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-13
- Federal Reserve: Without Tariffs, Inflation Would Have Dropped to Pre-Pandemic Levels During 2025 β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-04-13
- You all have forgotten the Saddam-Bunker model for middle east conflicts. β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-13
- I’m sorry bears, back to hibernation β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-04-13
- Asking Ukraine to cede land ‘unworthy’ of Hungary’s 1956 resistance, Magyar says β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-04-13