DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: Soft CPI cools rate fears; AI and consumer names lead relief rally |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 14.55, -4.78%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: CFTC speculative positioning data due Friday across gold, JPY, wheat, CHF, and silver |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
-
Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflation data
Soft US inflation data drives Fed rate-hold expectations while mortgage demand revives and Australia’s central bank signals upside rate risks. -
Watch Why the Fed Is Likely to Hold Rates: TD Strategist
Fed rate-hold expectations and US inflation data drive the policy-path narrative across multiple outlets. -
Watch It’s A ‘Weird Time’ For The US Economy, Says Christopher Smart
Analytical take on the mixed or unusual state of the US macro environment.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
July CPI came in soft, handing markets the clearest inflation relief in months. The Fed’s September meeting is now effectively a hold โ Reuters called it explicitly โ and risk assets responded accordingly. AI infrastructure names led the charge: Nebius Group surged +34.14%, CoreWeave jumped +19.28%, and Super Micro Computer added +19.02%. Quantum computing name Quantinuum powered a +27.97% move on its own catalyst, while the WSJ’s August 12 market wrap also flagged a notable rally in Wendy’s alongside the AI names. Former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji โ the architect of China’s transition to a market economy โ died at 97 on August 12, per Reuters and the NYT, a moment that drew wide reflection on China’s economic modernization. In Asia overnight, the KOSPI extended its weekly run to +7.44%, closing at โฉ6,765 (+2.82% day), while the Nikkei 225 hit ยฅ68,441 (+1.36% day). The CPI print sets a constructive tone heading into today’s August 13 session.
The Setup
The risk picture looks calm but not complacent. VIX sits at 14.55, down -4.78% on the day and at a fresh 52-week low โ fear is structurally absent right now. UST10Y eased to 4.68% (-0.43% day), a signal the bond market is pricing out near-term Fed tightening. EUR/USD is pinned at 1.15 with zero movement, while DE10Y holds at 3.17% unchanged on the day but up +1.28% on the week โ a subtle divergence worth tracking. EURIBOR3M ticked up to 2.49%, near its 52-week high of 2.50%, suggesting European rate expectations haven’t fully relaxed. The Hang Seng and ASX 200 both dipped modestly, warning that the enthusiasm isn’t universal. A CNBC Daily Open note flags that markets are also looking past the soaring U.S. budget deficit, a dynamic worth monitoring as the session develops.
Today’s Watch
Today’s macro calendar is quiet. The next scheduled data of consequence is Friday August 14’s US Retail Sales print (July; consensus +0.1% MoM), which will be the first read on consumer spending post-CPI and could either reinforce or complicate the soft-landing narrative. Also on Friday at 19:30, CFTC positioning updates will cover speculative net positions across gold, JPY, EUR, GBP, Nasdaq 100, and others โ these won’t move markets in real time but will clarify whether institutional positioning was already leaning long risk ahead of the CPI print, or whether Tuesday’s rally opened fresh room to run. The key question for today’s session: does the AI-infrastructure momentum consolidate, or does the lack of fresh catalysts invite profit-taking after yesterday’s sharp single-day moves?
Market Movers
๐ Top Gainers
- Nebius Group N.V. โ +34.14%
- Quantinuum Inc. โ +27.97%
- ERock, Inc. โ +22.84%
- SharonAI Holdings, Inc. โ +21.0%
- CoreWeave, Inc. โ +19.28%
- Super Micro Computer, Inc. โ +19.02%
- Marex Group Limited โ +18.69%
- Astronics Corporation โ +17.33%
๐ Top Losers
- Maase Inc. โ -21.4%
- Fervo Energy Company โ -16.59%
- Liquidia Corporation โ -10.52%
- Alamar Biosciences, Inc. โ -9.43%
- LandBridge Company LLC โ -9.05%
- AECOM โ -8.96%
- GRAIL, Inc. โ -8.66%
- Bending Spoons S.p.A. โ -8.35%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 08/14 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 08/14 | US | Retail Sales | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 08/14 | US | Retail Sales | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 08/14 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos | ๐ธ Med |
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.55 | -4.78% | -7.97% | 14.55โ20.66 | ๐ Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.49% | +0.4% | -0.4% | 2.44โ2.5 | ๐ Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.68% | -0.43% | 0.0% | 4.61โ4.74 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 3.17% | 0.0% | +1.28% | 3.13โ3.23 | Neutral |
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๐ฐ Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Soft US inflation data drives Fed rate-hold expectations while mortgage demand revives and Australia’s central bank signals upside rate risks.
- Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflation data โ Reuters, 08/12/2026
- US consumer inflation mild in July, economy still not out of the woods โ Reuters, 08/12/2026
- Mortgage rates finally stop rising, causing demand to trickle back โ CNBC, 08/12/2026
- Australia central banker says rate risks are skewed higher โ Reuters, 08/13/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed rate-hold expectations and US inflation data drive the policy-path narrative across multiple outlets.
- Watch Why the Fed Is Likely to Hold Rates: TD Strategist โ Bloomberg.com, 08/13/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Analytical take on the mixed or unusual state of the US macro environment.
- Watch It’s A ‘Weird Time’ For The US Economy, Says Christopher Smart โ Bloomberg.com, 08/12/2026
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Legacy and continuity of China’s economic modernisation marked by the death of its architect Zhu Rongji.
- Zhu Rongji, Chinese premier who cajoled economy into modern era, dies at 97 โ Reuters, 08/12/2026
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Death of Zhu Rongji marks the passing of a key architect of China’s market-economy transition.
- Zhu Rongji, Former Premier Who Pushed China to a Market Economy, Dies at 97 โ The New York Times, 08/12/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- CNBC Daily Open: Markets look past soaring U.S. budget deficit โ CNBC, 08/13/2026
- Markets Get Inflation Relief, AI Names and Wendy’s Rally | Markets P.M. for August 12 โ WSJ
- CNBC Markets Now: August 12, 2026 โ CNBC, 08/12/2026
- Asian Stocks Poised to Gain on Benign US Inflation: Markets Wrap โ Bloomberg.com, 08/12/2026
- Volatility tumbles as markets shrug off Middle East risks โ Financial Times, 08/11/2026
- Dollar gains, yen slips as US CPI meets expectations โ Reuters, 08/12/2026
- Australia’s Origin Energy beats annual profit view, sees stronger energy markets earnings โ Reuters, 08/12/2026
- New York City Council announces probe into prediction market platforms’ marketing strategies โ CNBC
- FlightAware withdraws lawsuit against Kalshi over flight-cancellation markets โ Reuters, 08/12/2026
- The closing of the U.S. economy’s K-shaped gap โ Axios, 08/11/2026