The Day Ahead

Yesterday’s Takeaway

The dominant story heading into July 23 was dual-front energy pressure: an Iran war shock pushing gas and diesel prices higher, while two simultaneous conflicts tightened global energy supplies broadly. That geopolitical backdrop coincided with the “surging bond yields” narrative that dominated WSJ coverage — UST10Y sits at its 52-week high of 4.67, though it was unchanged on the day, reflecting persistent inflation anxiety rather than a single-session catalyst. AI optimism provided a partial offset — Super Micro Computer surged +19.84% and Dell Technologies +9.32%, confirming that infrastructure spending tied to AI remains a live bid even as macro headwinds build. Asia overnight delivered a mixed but mostly constructive picture: the KOSPI ₩7,051 ripped +3.73%, Hang Seng HK$25,183 gained +1.17%, while the Nikkei ¥66,634 added +0.78% despite a rough week (-3.08% WTD). In Europe, UK Prime Minister Burnham moved to cut business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues, a supply-side relief for the hospitality sector, even as a separate study found June’s heatwave cost the UK economy more than £1bn.

The Setup

Risk appetite looks tentatively steadier. VIX dropped to 16.64 (-2.40% day), though it remains +6.19% on the week — that week-over-week gap signals residual anxiety rather than genuine calm. The real tension is in rates: UST10Y at 4.67 is at its 52-week high, DE10Y hit 3.2 (also a 52-week high, +0.31% day), and EURIBOR3M at 2.48 is just one basis point off its own 52-week ceiling. EUR/USD is flat at 1.14, suggesting the FX market is in a holding pattern while bond markets price in persistent inflation risk tied partly to energy. Novagold’s +10.30% move reinforces that defensive commodity positioning remains active.

Today’s Watch

The July 24 calendar is more substantive than it first appears. Flash US PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the headline data: S&P Global Manufacturing is forecast at 54.3 (prior 53.9), Services at 51.5 (prior 51.2), and Composite at 52.3 (prior 51.9) — a beat or miss here will set the tone for whether the economy is absorbing the energy shock or beginning to crack. ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks at 15:30 UTC and could shape European rate expectations given DE10Y at its 52-week high. CFTC positioning data at 19:30 and Irish Consumer Confidence at 23:01 are secondary. The overarching question for July 24 is whether UST10Y holds at or breaches its 52-week high of 4.67 amid ongoing energy-inflation anxiety, and whether AI-related names like Super Micro can consolidate yesterday’s extraordinary gains or give them back.

Market Movers

Key Events Today

Macro Dashboard

Premium

Premium — DeepCap Conviction

Premium — Key Levels to Watch

Premium — EU DeepList Watch

Premium — US DeepList Watch

Premium — Risk Scenarios