DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: AI demand fears drive global equity sell-off as Asia markets slump; Fed September hike bets hold |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 18.89, +1.4%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: US Retail Inventories data and Fed Barkin speech โ key reads on consumer health ahead of the Fed’s September decision |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
-
Global markets fall as investors fret about AI demand
Global market sell-off driven by AI demand fears sits alongside a high-profile AI-fintech fundraise, reflecting both froth anxiety and continued venture conviction. -
Tech Stocks Drive ‘Unnerving’ Sell-Off in Global Markets
Tech-driven global sell-offs and high-profile bubble warnings reflect stretched valuations in risk assets. -
HKEX: Looking for opportunities to give mainland investors better global markets access
HKEX’s drive to open global markets to mainland Chinese investors reflects ongoing structural policy effort to deepen China’s financial integration.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Asia sold off hard on June 25, with the KOSPI collapsing -7.09% to โฉ8,297 โ its worst single-day drop in recent memory and -8.34% on the week โ while the Nikkei 225 shed -4.61% to ยฅ69,030 and the Hang Seng fell -1.75% to HK$22,672. The catalyst: renewed anxiety over AI demand, with global markets repricing growth expectations after the Financial Times flagged broad investor concern. Trip.com Group dropped -12.55%, Innodata -10.26%, and Figma -9.66%, reinforcing the risk-off tone. The lone bright spot was memory โ Sandisk surged +21.52% and Micron Technology +15.81%, suggesting selective conviction in AI infrastructure hardware even as the broader AI narrative wobbled.
The Setup
The indicator picture is defensive but not panicked. VIX sits at 18.89, up +1.40% on the day and +15.18% week-on-week, but still well inside its 52-week high of 22.22 โ elevated anxiety, not capitulation. UST10Y at 4.37 is at its 52-week low, suggesting a flight-to-quality bid is already embedded; DE10Y at 2.86 mirrors that at its own 52-week floor. EURIBOR3M at 2.30 โ also a 52-week low, down -0.86% on the day โ points to accelerating ECB cut expectations. EUR/USD at 1.14 is flat, offering no directional signal. The bond rally is telling: if yields are falling while the Fed is reportedly shifting hawkish per the FT and Reuters, something in that narrative will have to break.
Today’s Watch
ECB’s Isabel Schnabel speaks at 13:45 EU time โ any pushback on aggressive rate-cut pricing, given EURIBOR3M at fresh lows, could jolt European rates. Fed’s Barkin speaks at 16:35 US time; with markets debating a September hike, his tone on inflation will be parsed closely. China’s May Industrial Profits (consensus: 20, prior: 18.2) prints overnight and may either deepen or stabilize Asia’s selloff narrative heading into Friday’s session.
Market Movers
๐ Top Gainers
- DPC โ +42.06%
- Sandisk Corporation โ +21.52%
- Bio-Techne Corp โ +20.08%
- BlackBerry Limited โ +19.95%
- Acuity Inc. โ +17.64%
- Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. โ +16.61%
- Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. โ +16.37%
- Micron Technology, Inc. โ +15.81%
๐ Top Losers
- Trip.com Group Limited โ -12.55%
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L โ -12.5%
- EquipmentShare.com Inc โ -11.7%
- Innodata Inc. โ -10.26%
- Nuvation Bio Inc. โ -10.06%
- Honeywell Aerospace Inc. Common Stock When Issued โ -9.79%
- Figma, Inc. โ -9.66%
- Strategy Inc โ -9.44%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 06/26 | FR | Unemployment Benefit Claims | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 06/26 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos | ๐ธ Med |
| Sun 06/28 | JP | Retail Sales | ๐ธ Med |
| Sun 06/28 | JP | Retail Sales | ๐ธ Med |
Central Bank & Policy Calendar
-
June 27 โ ECB Schnabel Speech
[ecb]
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.89 | +1.4% | +15.18% | 16.2โ22.22 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.3% | -0.86% | -4.96% | 2.3โ2.42 | ๐ Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.37% | -0.46% | -2.02% | 4.37โ4.57 | ๐ Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | -0.35% | -2.39% | 2.86โ3.08 | ๐ Offered |
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๐ฐ Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters & Corporate AI Plays
Global market sell-off driven by AI demand fears sits alongside a high-profile AI-fintech fundraise, reflecting both froth anxiety and continued venture conviction.
- Global markets fall as investors fret about AI demand โ Financial Times, 06/26/2026
- Airwallex hits $11 billion valuation with $320 million raise as fintech pushes into finance run by AI agents โ CNBC, 06/26/2026
- Mark Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Create a Prediction Markets App โ The New York Times, 06/23/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters & Bubble Warnings
Tech-driven global sell-offs and high-profile bubble warnings reflect stretched valuations in risk assets.
- Tech Stocks Drive ‘Unnerving’ Sell-Off in Global Markets โ The New York Times
- SpaceX bond sale signals markets are in ‘bubble territory’, warns Allianz CIO โ Financial Times
China/Asia Policy & Markets: HKEX Global Access Push
HKEX’s drive to open global markets to mainland Chinese investors reflects ongoing structural policy effort to deepen China’s financial integration.
- HKEX: Looking for opportunities to give mainland investors better global markets access โ CNBC, 06/26/2026
Calendar & Outlook
CNBC markets wrap provides a session summary and orienting reference for the day’s trading.
- CNBC Markets Now: June 25, 2026 โ CNBC, 06/25/2026
Rates & Central Banks: Fed, ECB & Market Pricing
Multiple central bank signals โ Fed on hold then hike, ECB eyeing another raise, and market mispricing debates โ dominate the macro policy landscape.
- Outlook for Fed interest rates shifts in a hawkish direction โ Financial Times, 06/26/2026
- Fed expected to hold rates steady in July, hike in September โ Reuters, 06/25/2026
- Markets are mispricing the Fed as inflation pressures fade: Indosuez Wealth Management โ CNBC, 06/26/2026
- IMF sees solid momentum in US economy; says Fed right to hold interest rate steady โ Reuters, 06/25/2026
- ECB Will Need to Raise Interest Rates Again, Schnabel Says โ WSJ, 06/25/2026
- Will AI lower interest rates? โ The Economist, 06/25/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Americans are still shopping, despite climbing energy costs โ Axios, 06/25/2026
- Why Americans hate the “good” economy โ Axios, 06/25/2026
- Oil slides 2% as markets look past fresh Iran tensions and focus on supply outlook โ CNBC, 06/26/2026
- Markets on Watch for Intervention as Yen Weakens to Near Two-Year Low Against Dollar โ WSJ, 06/25/2026
- A $2.5 Billion Whodunit: The Hack That Dented the U.K. Economy โ The New York Times, 06/26/2026
- Fed’s Williams Sees Rates Well Positioned to Tame High Inflation โ Bloomberg.com
- EXCLUSIVE: Japan’s government blueprint nudges BOJ to fuel demand, clouding rates path โ Reuters, 06/25/2026
- Dollar rides into second half of 2026 on a ‘winner takes it all’ wave โ Reuters, 06/26/2026
- Naples Outpaces Milan as Southern Italy Drives Economic Growth โ Bloomberg.com, 06/26/2026