DeepCap Tuesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market reacts to mixed economic signals ahead of key PMI data. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 16.15, +0.37%) |
| β° | Key Event: NBS Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Bank of England to hold rates on Feb 5, slim majority expect March cut – Reuters poll
Central-bank decisions and bond-market stress that shape the global rate outlook and borrower costs. -
Japan Bond Crash Unleashes a $7 Trillion Risk for Global Markets
Bond-market stress and rate/risk transmission from Japan that could reverberate through global fixed-income and credit markets. -
Big Techβs AI data center push is spawning a new heat economy
AI-driven infrastructure and spending trends that feed into tech-sector positioning and commodity/energy demand.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
A Reuters poll that the Bank of England will hold on Feb. 5 but that a slim majority expect a March cut drove the biggest market reaction: it reset expectations for UK policy and put pressure on sterling and rate-sensitive assets into the close. For today that means gilt curves and UK banks are the clearing mechanism for shifting rate odds, and any fresh BoE-speak or UK data will ripple into EUR/GBP, European equities and global carry trades.
The Setup
Risk sentiment looks muted but not nervous: the VIX sits at 16.15 (up 0.37% on the day, down 14.3% week on week), signalling subdued volatility. EUR/USD has firmed to 1.19 (+0.85%), while short-term euro money markets remain tightβEURIBOR 3M at 2.04 is at its 52-week high. Core yields show a split: US 10βyr at 4.23 (flat-to-neutral) versus German 10βyr at 2.87 (down 1.37%), a divergence that flags regional policy and growth differentials that could drive cross-asset flows today.
Today’s Watch
The calendar is led by China NBS PMIs at 01:30 (manufacturing forecast 50.4; nonβmanufacturing 50.3; general PMI prior 50.7); stronger prints would lift cyclicals and EM risk, weaker would reinforce downside growth narratives. CFTC speculative-position releases at 20:30 (EUR, CAD, AUD, MXN, S&P) could clarify recent currency moves, and Fed Governor Bowman speaks at 22:00βshe can recalibrate market Fed odds if tone shifts from neutral. Focus the session on GBP/gilt moves and whether PMIs or U.S. Fed rhetoric alter the apparent complacency in equity volatility.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Pattern Group Inc. – Series A β +12.54%
- Zoom Communications, Inc. β +11.28%
- DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. β +9.94%
- GDS Holdings Limited β +9.2%
- Cloudflare, Inc. β +9.17%
- The Magnum Ice Cream Company N. β +8.31%
- Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited β +8.1%
- Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. β +7.9%
π Top Losers
- Evolution Metals & Technologies β -26.62%
- TMC the metals company Inc. β -17.69%
- Revolution Medicines, Inc. β -16.91%
- Firefly Aerospace Inc. β -13.34%
- Critical Metals Corp. β -11.25%
- Hesai Group β -10.06%
- Rocket Lab Corporation β -9.47%
- CVR Energy Inc. β -9.49%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/30 | US | Chicago PMI | πΈ Med |
| Sat 01/31 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Sat 01/31 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Sat 01/31 | CN | PMI | πΈ Med |
| Sat 01/31 | CN | NBS General PMI | πΈ Med |
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- January 30 β ECB Buch Speech
- January 30 β Bundesbank Buch Speech
- January 30 β Fed Bowman Speech (Hawk)
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.15 | +0.37% | -14.28% | 14.49β20.09 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.19 | +0.85% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.04% | +0.49% | +0.49% | 2.02β2.04 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.23% | +0.24% | -1.63% | 4.14β4.3 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.87% | -1.37% | +1.06% | 2.82β2.91 | Neutral |
Premium
*Premium* β DeepCap Conviction
*Premium* β Key Levels to Watch
*Premium* β EU DeepList Watch
*Premium* β US DeepList Watch
*Premium* β Risk Scenarios
π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank decisions and bond-market stress that shape the global rate outlook and borrower costs.
- Bank of England to hold rates on Feb 5, slim majority expect March cut – Reuters poll β Reuters, 01/27/2026
- Fed is likely to hold interest rates steady, resisting Trump pressure. Hereβs what that means for borrowers β CNBC, 01/26/2026
- Why the Japanese bond drama matters for the global economy β Axios, 01/26/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Bond-market stress and rate/risk transmission from Japan that could reverberate through global fixed-income and credit markets.
- Japan Bond Crash Unleashes a $7 Trillion Risk for Global Markets β Bloomberg.com, 01/25/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
AI-driven infrastructure and spending trends that feed into tech-sector positioning and commodity/energy demand.
- Big Techβs AI data center push is spawning a new heat economy β CNBC, 01/27/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
AI-driven spending narratives and related investor positioning that could reshape sectoral and macro outlooks.
- AI spending frenzy could reshape the economy, Bridgewater CIOs say β Reuters, 01/26/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Headlines tied to tariff actions and trade friction between the US and Asian partners affecting stocks and sectors.
- CNBC Daily Open: Trump turns tariff pressure back on South Korea β but markets are focused on Big Tech earnings β CNBC, 01/27/2026
- South Korean auto stocks pare losses as Trump hikes tariffs over trade deal approval delay β CNBC, 01/26/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Opinion | The U.S. Economy Is Trumping Expectations β The Wall Street Journal, 01/26/2026
- Goodwill Thrives as Americans Stretch Their Dollars β The New York Times, 01/26/2026
- As lawyer rates surge, US firm charges $4,000 an hour for top partners β Reuters, 01/26/2026
- Record Debt in the Worldβs Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth β The New York Times, 01/27/2026
- Opinion | A Free-Market Milestone for Indiaβs Economy β The Wall Street Journal, 01/26/2026
- Currency markets on guard for intervention in Japan’s yen β Reuters, 01/25/2026
- FTSE 100 Set to Rise, Pound Holds Near $1.37 – Live β Bloomberg.com, 01/27/2026
- Asia markets seeing ‘unbelievable’ rush of capital, driving equity rallies and IPO frenzy β CNBC, 01/27/2026
- European markets set to open higher as earnings come into focus β CNBC, 01/27/2026
- Dollar Drops While Gold Tops $5,000, Stocks Rise: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 01/26/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Italian journalists threatened by ICE agents while reporting in Minneapolis β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-26
- Daily Discussion Thread for January 26, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-26
- Volkswagen considers pulling out of US factory plans over tariffs β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-01-26
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, January 27, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-26
- Peter Thiel comes to Paris to speak about the Antichrist β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-26
- Texas creates its own currency backed by gold and silver as a parallel legal tender to the dollar effective May 1st β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-01-26
- Germany prepares a ‘military Starlink’: Rheinmetall and OHB working on a sovereign satellite network β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-26
- EU countries give final approval to Russian gas ban β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-26