DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

Markets rally on Trump war-end hints while VIX retreats from elevated levels

DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

The Day at a Glance

🎯 Theme: Markets rally on Trump war-end hints while VIX retreats from elevated levels
πŸ“Š Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 26.15, -2.35%)
⏰ Key Event: ECB Cipollone Speech
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Key Headlines

  1. Fed’s Miran still believes Fed should cut interest rates – Bloomberg TV
    Central bank policy outlook and rate-path expectations across regions.
  2. Fed’s Daly: no single most-likely path for rates
    Federal Reserve policy path and rate outlook commentary.
  3. Instant view: World markets rally as Trump postpones military strikes on Iranian power plants
    Geopolitical disruption impacting regional economic relationships and supply chains.

The Day Ahead

Yesterday’s Takeaway

Markets rallied sharply on Trump’s suggestion that an Iran resolution is “near,” with oil tumbling as geopolitical risk premiums unwound. The president’s hint at postponing military strikes on Iranian power plants triggered cross-asset rotation from safe havens back into risk assets. This diplomatic pivot signals today could see continued pressure on commodities while growth-sensitive sectors extend gains, though the durability of any Middle East breakthrough remains highly uncertain.

The Setup

The VIX’s 2.35% decline to 26.15 reflects easing near-term volatility concerns, yet it remains elevated above its 52-week low of 22.37, suggesting underlying caution persists. US 10-year yields jumped 0.69% to 4.38%, approaching their annual high of 4.39% as Treasury demand cooled alongside geopolitical fears. German bunds moved inversely, falling 1.31% to 3.01%, creating a notable divergence that highlights dollar strength and differing regional risk perceptions. The EUR/USD held flat at 1.16, masking this underlying bond market tension.

Today’s Watch

ECB’s Cipollone speaks at 9:00 AM, where any dovish commentary could accelerate the euro’s recent weakness against continued US rate uncertainty. The EcoFin meeting at 10:00 AM may address fiscal coordination amid diverging European growth outlooks. CFTC positioning data released overnight showed persistent JPY shorts at -67.8 and GBP shorts at -65.5, suggesting currency volatility could spike if geopolitical sentiment shifts again. The session’s focus centers on whether yesterday’s diplomatic optimism can sustain without concrete progress, particularly as oil’s sharp decline tests energy sector support levels.

Market Movers

πŸ“ˆ Top Gainers

  • PayPay Corporation – American D β€” +21.16%
  • Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. β€” +19.99%
  • AXT Inc β€” +18.81%
  • Fastly, Inc. β€” +14.09%
  • Intuitive Machines, Inc. β€” +13.91%
  • Hut 8 Corp. β€” +11.55%
  • Clear Secure, Inc. β€” +11.1%
  • ImmunityBio, Inc. β€” +10.98%

πŸ“‰ Top Losers

  • SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. β€” -9.6%
  • Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β€” -7.87%
  • Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T β€” -7.72%
  • Enphase Energy, Inc. β€” -7.59%
  • Liberty Energy Inc. β€” -7.44%
  • Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm β€” -6.83%
  • Alumis Inc. β€” -6.78%
  • EquipmentShare.com Inc β€” -6.7%

Key Events Today

Date Region Event Impact
Fri 03/27 US Retail Inventories Ex Autos πŸ”Έ Med

Fed Speak This Week

  • March 27 β€” Fed Daly Speech (Neutral)
  • March 27 β€” ECB Schnabel Speech
  • March 28 β€” ECB Cipollone Speech

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level Ξ” d/d Ξ” w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 26.15 -2.35% +11.23% 22.37–29.49 Neutral
EUR/USD 1.16 0.0% β€” β€” Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.11% 0.0% -2.31% 2.05–2.16 Neutral
US 10Y 4.38% +0.69% +4.29% 4.1–4.39 πŸ“ˆ Bid
DE 10Y 3.01% -1.31% +2.03% 2.84–3.05 πŸ“ˆ Bid

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πŸ“° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Central bank policy outlook and rate-path expectations across regions.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Federal Reserve policy path and rate outlook commentary.

Trade & Diplomacy

Geopolitical disruption impacting regional economic relationships and supply chains.

Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth

Structural economic themes including migration policy and AI economic transformation.

Market Moves & Daily Wraps

Broad market rallies and cautious positioning driven by geopolitical developments.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

Social Media Buzz

For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

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