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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: China growth concerns clash with geopolitical tensions as markets digest war risks |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 21.15, -10.27%) |
| β° | Key Event: Multiple inflation rate releases across regions |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Weekly mortgage demand surged 11% higher last week, as rates sat near 4-year low
Central bank policy updates and mortgage market dynamics. -
U.S. economy got off to a choppy start in 2026, the Fed finds. Here’s the good and bad news.
Fed assessment of economic conditions and mixed signals for monetary policy outlook. -
What Hotels Are Telling Us About America’s Economy
Broader economic health indicators and consumer-facing sector performance.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Asian markets surged overnight as geopolitical tensions showed signs of cooling, with the VIX plunging 10.27% to 21.15 as risk appetite returned. The rally in Korean stocks led broader regional gains, while energy markets remained volatile amid ongoing Iran conflict concerns. This risk-on shift sets up a potential continuation in US markets, though elevated bond yields suggest underlying caution persists.
The Setup
Cross-asset signals paint a mixed picture heading into today’s session. While equity volatility compressed sharply, bond markets tell a different story with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.12% – a fresh 52-week high that’s up 2.74% on the week. German bunds moved counter-trend, declining 0.36% to 2.76%, creating a notable divergence in sovereign debt markets. The dollar held steady against the euro at 1.16, while Euribor rates touched new highs at 2.04%, reflecting persistent European rate pressures.
Today’s Watch
The economic calendar is light, with China’s foreign exchange reserves at 8:00 AM ET offering the only major data point. Markets will instead focus on CFTC positioning data at 8:30 PM, particularly crude oil specs after energy volatility dominated headlines. The positioning reports could reveal whether institutional money followed retail into the recent commodity rally. With bonds at yearly highs and volatility compressed, today’s session hinges on whether yesterday’s risk-on momentum can overcome rising rate concerns or if the bond market’s warning signals reassert themselves.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Stevanato Group S.p.A. β +18.81%
- Galaxy Digital Inc. β +17.7%
- Moderna, Inc. β +15.99%
- SSR Mining Inc. β +14.97%
- Coinbase Global, Inc. – 3 β +14.57%
- Hut 8 Corp. β +13.89%
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. β +13.17%
- IREN LIMITED β +12.84%
π Top Losers
- ImmunityBio, Inc. β -10.0%
- Evolution Metals & Technologies β -7.65%
- JFrog Ltd. β -7.22%
- Brown Forman Inc β -6.65%
- AXT Inc β -6.3%
- GitLab Inc. β -6.18%
- Brown Forman Inc β -5.79%
- DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. β -5.67%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 03/06 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | πΈ Med |
| Fri 03/06 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos | πΈ Med |
| Fri 03/06 | US | Unemployment Rate | πΈ Med |
| Fri 03/06 | CA | PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 03/06 | CA | Ivey PMI s.a | πΈ Med |
| Fri 03/06 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos | πΈ Med |
Fed Speak This Week
- March 6 β ECB Schnabel Speech
- March 6 β Fed Hammack Speech
- March 6 β RBA Hauser Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.15 | -10.27% | +17.96% | 17.93β23.57 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.04% | +0.49% | +0.49% | 2.0β2.04 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.12% | +0.49% | +2.74% | 3.95β4.12 | π Bid |
| DE 10Y | 2.76% | -0.36% | +1.85% | 2.66β2.77 | π Bid |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy updates and mortgage market dynamics.
- Weekly mortgage demand surged 11% higher last week, as rates sat near 4-year low β CNBC, 03/04/2026
- Fed’s Beige Book Sees a Stable Economy Still Facing Challenges β WSJ
- Bank of Canada warns of risks linked to non-bank players in debt markets β Reuters, 03/04/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed assessment of economic conditions and mixed signals for monetary policy outlook.
- U.S. economy got off to a choppy start in 2026, the Fed finds. Here’s the good and bad news. β MarketWatch
- Fed report says economy solid, notes disruption from immigration crackdown in Minnesota β Reuters, 03/04/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Broader economic health indicators and consumer-facing sector performance.
- What Hotels Are Telling Us About America’s Economy β WSJ
- Global Economy Is Facing the Prospect of Another Profound Shock β The New York Times, 03/03/2026
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Structural policy shifts from China including historic growth target adjustment.
- China Sets Economy’s Growth Target Below 5% for First Time in Decades β The New York Times
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Chinese fiscal policy measures aimed at economic stimulus and growth support.
- China Keeps Budget Deficit Target at Record High to Spur Economy β Bloomberg.com, 03/05/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- The Power Brokers Behind the $250 Billion Influencer Economy β WSJ, 03/04/2026
- Brown-Forman Says Sales in Developed Markets Still Falling β WSJ, 03/04/2026
- Markets Have One Clear Iran War Winner β America β Bloomberg.com, 03/05/2026
- Stock markets and oil prices still volatile over fears Iran war may drag on β BBC, 03/04/2026
- Asian shares surge, led by KOSPI; Treasuries fall as traders weigh war impact β Reuters, 03/05/2026
- Global Markets Swing as Investors Assess Energy Price Impact β The New York Times, 03/04/2026
- Asian Stocks Set to Slip After Oil Extends Rally: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 03/04/2026
- European markets head for another mixed open as war unsettles traders β CNBC, 03/05/2026
- Damage to Israeli economy from Iran war seen at about $3 billion a week β Reuters, 03/04/2026
- How Iran’s Strait of Hormuz shutdown could hit the global economy β Axios, 03/05/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- The smoking hulk of sanctioned Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz, which suffered a massive explosion in the Mediterranean early yesterday β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-03-04
- Daily Discussion Thread for March 04, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-03-04
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 05, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-03-04
- Pornography depicting sexual relationships between step-relatives set to be banned β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-03-04
- βAbsolutely Massiveβ Price Shocks Coming as Trumpβs Iran War Drives Up Gas, Diesel Prices | βWhat should really terrify Republicans is… the futures price on wholesale gasoline,β said economist Paul Krugman. β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-03-04