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DeepCap Weekly Wrap
The Week at a Glance
| π― | Theme: US-Iran tensions dominated markets while mortgage rates hit multi-year lows |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 19.86) |
| π‘ | Key Takeaway: Geopolitical risk premium returned to energy markets amid broader defensive positioning |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Weekly Performance β |
Top 5 Headlines That Shaped the Week
-
Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades
Geopolitical tensions drove energy sector volatility and inflation concerns across global markets. -
U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6% for First Time in Years
Rate decline boosted real estate stocks and housing-sensitive sectors significantly this week. -
Any chance of a Fed interest-rate cut in 2026 is ‘evaporating before our very eyes’ with Iran war set to stoke oil prices
Oil price surge shifted Fed policy expectations, impacting bond yields and rate-sensitive assets. -
Stocks Mount Tentative Recovery After AI Scare: Markets Wrap
Tech sector stabilization helped major indices recover from earlier AI-driven selloff concerns. -
S&P 500 Faces February Loss as Europe, Asia Rally: Markets Wrap
Regional divergence highlighted US underperformance versus stronger European and Asian equity gains.
The Week in Review
The Big Picture
Iran conflict dominated market sentiment this week as tensions escalated following US strikes, triggering risk-off flows across assets. Oil markets faced their biggest disruption since 2022, with natural gas experiencing similar shocks as traders priced in potential supply disruptions. The volatility index climbed 6.6% to 19.86, reflecting heightened uncertainty, while bond markets rallied as investors sought safe havens. US 10-year yields fell sharply to 3.95%, hitting 52-week lows, with German bunds following suit at 2.66%. The geopolitical premium now overshadows previous Fed dovishness expectations, as energy price pressures threaten to complicate central bank easing cycles.
Despite headline risks, equity markets showed surprising resilience. The flight-to-quality bid compressed risk premiums across developed markets, with mortgage rates falling below 6% for the first time in years. However, energy market disruptions could reignite inflation concerns, potentially derailing rate cut expectations that had supported risk assets through early 2025.
US Markets
US equities posted modest gains despite geopolitical headwinds, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.6% and the Dow adding 0.36%. The Nasdaq lagged at just 0.18%, weighed down by technology selloffs including NVIDIA’s 7.5% decline. Streaming and fintech names dominated weekly gainers, led by Paramount’s 27.94% surge and Netflix’s 26.6% rally, suggesting investors rotated into defensive growth stories. Block jumped 25.52% while solar stocks faced brutal selling pressure, with Sunrun plummeting 33.72% on sector headwinds. The divergence between defensive tech and high-beta energy plays reflected uncertainty over Iran’s impact on growth versus inflation dynamics. Crypto-adjacent names like MARA Holdings gained 13.45%, benefiting from digital asset strength amid traditional market volatility.
EU Markets
European markets outperformed US counterparts across the board, with the STOXX 600 gaining 0.98% and the DAX advancing 1.17%. The FTSE 100 led with a 2.11% weekly surge, likely supported by sterling weakness and defensive characteristics of UK large-caps during geopolitical stress. The outperformance suggests European markets may be less sensitive to Middle East tensions than initially feared, or that investors view the region as relatively insulated from direct energy supply shocks given diversified sources post-2022. German bund yields fell more aggressively than US Treasuries, dropping 2.92% week-over-week to match 52-week lows at 2.66%, indicating markets still expect ECB easing despite energy price volatility. The euro remained flat against the dollar at 1.18, showing limited currency impact from regional risk factors.
5-Day Market Performance
πΊπΈ US Markets
-
S&P 500
+0.6% -
Nasdaq
+0.18% -
Dow Jones
+0.36%
πͺπΊ EU Markets
-
STOXX 600
+0.98% -
DAX
+1.17% -
FTSE 100
+2.11%
Weekly Market Movers
π Week’s Top Gainers
- Paramount Skydance Corporation β +27.94%
- Netflix, Inc. β +26.6%
- Block, Inc. β +25.52%
- MARA Holdings, Inc. β +13.45%
- Opendoor Technologies Inc β +13.39%
- SoundHound AI, Inc. β +9.83%
- Rocket Companies, Inc. β +6.44%
- UiPath, Inc. β +5.51%
π Week’s Top Losers
- Sunrun Inc. β -33.72%
- CoreWeave, Inc. β -12.42%
- NVIDIA Corporation β -7.5%
- Nu Holdings Ltd. β -7.47%
- IREN LIMITED β -3.33%
- Plug Power, Inc. β -2.72%
- Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. – β -2.59%
- SoFi Technologies, Inc. β -2.52%
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.86 | +6.6% | +4.03% | 17.65β21.2 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.01% | 0.0% | -0.5% | 1.98β2.04 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 3.95% | -1.5% | -3.42% | 3.95β4.18 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.66% | -1.48% | -2.92% | 2.66β2.81 | π Offered |
Premium
*Premium* β Key Levels to Watch
*Premium* β DeepList Weekly Performance
*Premium* β Risk Scenarios
β οΈ Weekend Watch
Key developments to monitor before markets reopen:
- Monitor Iran’s response to U.S. strikes – any retaliation could spike oil prices and volatility Monday
- Watch Asian markets open Sunday night for risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions
- Track Brent crude futures – geopolitical premium could push prices above recent highs
- Fed officials may comment on inflation risks from potential oil price surge
- VIX at 19.86 suggests markets pricing moderate stress – watch for gap higher Monday
π° This Week’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed policy outlook and mortgage rate developments amid shifting economic conditions.
- Any chance of a Fed interest-rate cut in 2026 is ‘evaporating before our very eyes’ with Iran war set to stoke oil prices β MarketWatch
- U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6% for First Time in Years β The New York Times
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Mortgage rate developments and housing market dynamics.
- Mortgage rates just dropped below 6%, matching lowest level since 2022 β CNBC
- Real estate stocks outperform broader markets for second straight month (XLRE:NYSEARCA) β Seeking Alpha
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market volatility driven by AI disruption concerns and Nvidia earnings volatility.
- Wall St Week Ahead AI disruption looms over markets with US jobs data on tap β Reuters
- Stocks Mount Tentative Recovery After AI Scare: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com
- Asia markets trade mixed after Wall Street pullback on Nvidia slump β CNBC
- Stocks Climb Before Nvidia’s High-Stakes Earnings: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic perception and consumer spending patterns reflecting structural inequality.
- Golden age? Americans doubt Trump’s claim of booming economy as midterms near, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds β Reuters
- How the ‘K-shaped’ economy is showing up at two big U.S. gyms β CNBC
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic outlook and growth expectations from institutional perspectives.
- IMF expects US economy to strengthen and create jobs, managing director tells Fox Business β Reuters
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- S&P 500 Faces February Loss as Europe, Asia Rally: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com
- Trump touts economy, energy in Texas, mum on his favorite in Republican Senate race β Reuters
- Iran Crisis Threatens Worst Disruption in Gas Markets Since 2022 β Bloomberg.com
- Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades β Reuters
- Global gas markets face their biggest shock since 2022 on Iran conflict β Investing.com
- ‘Bigger ramifications than Venezuela’: Markets brace for impact after U.S. strikes Iran β CNBC
- What’s at Stake for Oil Markets as Trump Strikes Iran β Bloomberg.com
- How US-Iran tensions could shape world markets β Reuters
- How the U.S. attack on Iran could shake oil prices β Axios
- How the attack on Iran could impact the global oil market and economy β CNBC
Social Week-in-Review
What the community was discussing this week:
- Weβre so back β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets
- Palantir Sues Swiss Magazine For Accurately Reporting That The Swiss Government Didnβt Want Palantir β reddit.com/r/europe
- Red light therapy is key. Practice for Monday. β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets
- U.S.-Israel launch massive attack on Iran; 4 U.S. military bases hit in retaliation β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets
- Belgian Armed Forces Board and Seize Russian Shadow Fleet Oil Tanker β reddit.com/r/europe
- Iran’s revolutionary guards tell ships passage through Strait of Hormuz ‘not allowed’, EU naval mission official says β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets
- British jets in the air in defensive action over Middle East β reddit.com/r/Europe
- Market reaction if Iranian leader Khamenei was taken out in a strike and the βwarβ was essentially over? β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets