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DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Manufacturing data tests economic resilience as mortgage rates ease |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 18.63, +3.9%) |
| β° | Key Event: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI release |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6% for the First Time Since 2022
Mortgage rates hitting multi-year lows and rate dynamics driving currency movements. -
Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since 2022, giving buyers a glimpse of affordability
Housing market relief as mortgage rates decline to multi-year lows. -
Asia markets open mixed after Wall Street pullback on Nvidia slump
Market reactions to Nvidia performance and broader tech valuation concerns.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Mortgage rates breaking below 6% for the first time since 2022 dominated yesterday’s narrative, signaling a potential shift in housing market dynamics that could ripple through consumer spending patterns. The move coincided with a broader bond rally that saw 10-year Treasury yields drop to 4.0%, now sitting at 52-week lows. Even as Nvidia’s strong earnings failed to lift broader markets, the rates story suggests traders are positioning for a more dovish monetary policy environment ahead.
The Setup
Risk indicators paint a mixed picture heading into March. The VIX climbed 3.9% to 18.63, remaining in neutral territory but showing some uptick in hedging demand. Bond markets tell a clearer story: German 10-year yields fell to 2.7% (also at 52-week lows), while 3-month Euribor dropped 1.47% to 2.01%. The synchronized decline in long-term rates across major economies suggests markets are pricing in softer growth expectations. EUR/USD held steady at 1.18, indicating currency markets remain focused on relative rate differentials rather than risk-off flows.
Today’s Watch
Manufacturing PMI data kicks off the month, with Australia’s reading expected to slip to 51.5 from 52.3 at 22:00 UTC. Korean trade data offers early clues on global demand, with February’s trade balance forecast to widen to $11B from January’s $8.74B. The key test comes from Bundesbank’s Nagel at 15:00 UTC, where any dovish commentary could extend the bond rally. Given yesterday’s rate-driven moves, focus shifts to whether manufacturing data supports the narrative of slowing growth that’s driving the bond bid.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Sezzle Inc. β +35.26%
- LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. β +24.41%
- First Advantage Corporation β +22.79%
- IonQ, Inc. β +21.7%
- Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. β +20.91%
- Caesars Entertainment, Inc. β +19.11%
- Warby Parker Inc. β +17.82%
- Enerflex Ltd β +16.97%
π Top Losers
- Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. β -39.44%
- ACM Research, Inc. β -16.69%
- Shift4 Payments, Inc. β -15.62%
- FS KKR Capital Corp. β -15.24%
- Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. β -15.13%
- Chemed Corp β -15.0%
- Donaldson Company, Inc. β -11.73%
- Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. β -11.66%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02/27 | US | Chicago PMI | πΈ Med |
| Sun 03/01 | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Sun 03/01 | AU | Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
Fed Speak This Week
- March 1 β Bundesbank Nagel Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.63 | +3.9% | -7.91% | 17.36β21.2 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.01% | -1.47% | 0.0% | 1.98β2.04 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.0% | -0.25% | -2.2% | 4.0β4.21 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.7% | -0.37% | -1.82% | 2.7β2.84 | π Offered |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Mortgage rates hitting multi-year lows and rate dynamics driving currency movements.
- Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6% for the First Time Since 2022 β WSJ, 02/26/2026
- US mortgage rate dips below 6% but economists don’t expect a housing boom β Reuters, 02/26/2026
- Aussie jumps, yen slumps as rates play dominates in February β Reuters, 02/27/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Housing market relief as mortgage rates decline to multi-year lows.
- Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since 2022, giving buyers a glimpse of affordability β MarketWatch, 02/26/2026
- Relief for US homeowners as mortgage rates hit lowest since 2022 β Financial Times, 02/26/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market reactions to Nvidia performance and broader tech valuation concerns.
- Asia markets open mixed after Wall Street pullback on Nvidia slump β CNBC, 02/26/2026
- Why Nvidia’s Big Profits Aren’t Lifting Markets – The New York Times β The New York Times
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market moves and commentary driven by AI-related anxiety and mega-cap tech volatility.
- Asian shares wobble, yen and Treasuries rise on AI, geopolitical woes β Reuters, 02/27/2026
- Watch Netflix Drops Warner Bid; AI Anxiety Hits Markets | The Asia Trade 2/27/2026 β Bloomberg.com, 02/27/2026
- Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says markets ‘got it wrong’ on AI threat to software companies β CNBC
Trade & Diplomacy
Dollar weakness and regional market impacts from US tariff policy developments.
- Dollar Loses, China Wins in US Tariffs Upheaval: Markets Pulse β Bloomberg.com, 02/27/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- The Economy Is a Feeling β The New York Times, 02/26/2026
- Economists are questioning the K-shaped economy narrative β Axios, 02/26/2026
- India’s Growth May Outpace Current Estimates After Data Overhaul β Bloomberg.com
- Biggest risk to the economy now? Goldman says it’s a stock market correction β CNBC, 02/24/2026
- Royal Bank of Canada Earnings Lifted by Personal Banking, Markets Growth β WSJ, 02/26/2026
- India markets regulator changes gold, silver valuation for mutual funds β Reuters, 02/26/2026
- SCHD: The Perfect Macro Storm Ahead β Seeking Alpha, 02/27/2026
- Breakingviews – EU’s markets Big Bang depends on local fireworks β Reuters
- HKEX CEO: Capital ‘pushed’ into Asia markets amid global volatility β CNBC, 02/27/2026
- Markets Have Had a Wild Ride. Here Are the Factors That Could Bring the Next Surprise. β Barron’s, 02/26/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Croatia refuses to transport Russian oil to Hungary β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-26
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 26, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-26
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 27, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-26
- How each group voted in the EP resolution affirming the EUβs support for Ukraine β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-26
- Drone shot down as it approached French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in Sweden β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-26
- Greeceβs Varoufakis to stand trial after admitting drug use 36 years ago β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-26
- Ukraine wins because Russia failed to seize country – Zelenskyy β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-26