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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: AI optimism drives risk appetite as VIX drops below 18 |
| π | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 17.93, -8.29%) |
| β° | Key Event: Industrial Production data release |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Bank of Korea holds rates at 2.50% as expected
Central bank policy decisions and housing market impacts from rate changes. -
S.Korea central bank holds rates, adopts dot-plot path signalling extended pause
Central bank policy decisions and mortgage market developments affecting rate expectations. -
Asian Stocks to Climb as Nvidia Boosts Sentiment: Markets Wrap
Market moves and sentiment driven by AI developments and Nvidia’s market influence.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Nvidia’s pre-earnings rally drove broader risk appetite as Jensen Huang dismissed software sector displacement fears, setting up today’s high-stakes earnings release. The VIX collapsed 8.29% to 17.93, signaling diminished hedging demand ahead of the chip giant’s results. Asian markets already responded positively in overnight trading, with sentiment shifting from tariff concerns to earnings optimism across European sessions.
The Setup
Cross-asset signals point to compressed volatility and muted macro stress heading into Nvidia’s report. The VIX sits just above its 52-week low of 17.36, while bond markets show stability with US 10-year yields holding at 4.05% and German Bunds unchanged at 2.71%. European interbank rates remain elevated at 2.04% on the 3-month Euribor, but the EUR/USD holds steady at 1.18. This configuration suggests markets are positioned for a benign outcome, leaving room for surprise moves if results disappoint.
Today’s Watch
All eyes turn to Nvidia’s earnings after market close, with options positioning suggesting traders expect significant moves regardless of direction. Before then, India’s industrial production data at 10:30 GMT could provide emerging market context, with manufacturing output previously at 8.1%. The CFTC commitment of traders reports at 20:30 GMT will reveal speculative positioning across currencies and commodities, particularly relevant given recent dollar strength. Clear Secure’s 39% surge and Circle Internet’s 35% gain yesterday highlight continued appetite for AI-adjacent names, while Diageo’s 16% plunge shows earnings sensitivity remains high across sectors.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Clear Secure, Inc. β +38.96%
- Circle Internet Group, Inc. β +35.47%
- CAVA Group, Inc. β +26.36%
- CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdi β +25.3%
- Everus Construction Group, Inc. β +24.84%
- Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. β +24.07%
- Navitas Semiconductor Corporati β +19.61%
- Axon Enterprise, Inc. β +17.55%
π Top Losers
- ImmunityBio, Inc. β -17.4%
- Intuitive Machines, Inc. β -15.93%
- Diageo plc β -15.65%
- GoDaddy Inc. β -14.28%
- First Solar, Inc. β -13.61%
- Verra Mobility Corporation β -13.52%
- Liquidia Corporation β -10.63%
- Cytokinetics, Incorporated β -10.29%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02/27 | CA | GDP Implicit Price | π΄ High |
| Fri 02/27 | US | Chicago PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 02/27 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos | πΈ Med |
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.93 | -8.29% | -8.61% | 17.36β21.2 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.04% | +0.49% | +1.49% | 1.98β2.04 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.05% | 0.0% | -0.74% | 4.04β4.21 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.71% | 0.0% | -1.09% | 2.71β2.84 | π Offered |
Premium
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy decisions and housing market impacts from rate changes.
- Bank of Korea holds rates at 2.50% as expected β Investing.com, 02/26/2026
- Mortgage rates hit lowest level in nearly 4 years, but homebuyers are still stuck on the sidelines β CNBC, 02/25/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central bank policy decisions and mortgage market developments affecting rate expectations.
- S.Korea central bank holds rates, adopts dot-plot path signalling extended pause β Investing.com
- As mortgage rates hit their lowest level since 2022, here’s where 5 pros say they’re heading in March β MarketWatch
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market moves and sentiment driven by AI developments and Nvidia’s market influence.
- Asian Stocks to Climb as Nvidia Boosts Sentiment: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg, 02/26/2026
- Stocks Climb Before Nvidia’s High-Stakes Earnings: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg
- Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says markets ‘got it wrong’ on AI threat to software companies β CNBC
- Breaking Down the Doomsday AI Memo That Spooked Markets β WSJ, 02/24/2026
- Opinion | How Fast Will A.I. Agents Rip Through the Economy? β The New York Times, 02/24/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market moves and scrutiny driven by AI sector dynamics and mega-cap tech concerns.
- CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia’s earnings beat and other AI news give markets relief β for now β CNBC
- Stocks Mount Tentative Recovery After AI Scare: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg, 02/24/2026
- Nvidia under microscope as AI economy spurs concerns β Axios, 02/25/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Tariff policies and their economic impact on global trade relationships.
- IMF Says Tariff Upheaval Risks Harm to ‘Buoyant’ US Economy β Bloomberg
- Here Are the Countries and Products Subject to Tariffs Now β The New York Times, 02/25/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- World’s Top Money Managers Favor Emerging Markets, Citi Says β Bloomberg
- Does India’s Economy Really Rival Japan’s? β Bloomberg
- Europe Capital Markets Are Making a Great Leap Forward Against America β Bloomberg, 02/26/2026
- Investors should demand more transparency from private-markets firms β The Economist, 02/25/2026
- Biggest risk to the economy now? Goldman says it’s a stock market correction β CNBC, 02/24/2026
- Russia Remade Its Economy for War, but It’s Come at a Huge Cost β The New York Times
- Sentiment shifts in European markets as traders go from tariffs to earnings β CNBC, 02/26/2026
- Video: Trump Echoes Biden on the Economy in State of the Union Speech β The New York Times, 02/25/2026
- How Trump’s Claims About the Economy in the State of the Union Stack Up β Barron’s
- Private credit in emerging markets surges to record, industry group says β Reuters, 02/25/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 25, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-25
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 26, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-25
- I’ll sell when it hits 100m… β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-25
- Days before the national debt is due to hit $39 trillion, President Trump didn’t mention it once during the longest State of the Union ever β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-02-25
- OrbΓ‘n deploys troops to protect Hungarian energy facilities from alleged Ukrainian attacks β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-25
- Seniors hold almost 70% of Spanish household savings β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-25
- Nearly half of companies are turning to poor βpeanut butterβ raisesβfollowing the same pattern of the 2008 recession, an expert says. And it could take years to recover β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-02-25