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DeepCap Wednesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Markets stabilize after AI concerns trigger volatility spike |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 19.55, -6.95%) |
| β° | Key Event: Manufacturing Output and Industrial Production data releases |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Fed’s Collins Says Rates Likely on Hold ‘For Some Time’
Federal Reserve policy stance and mortgage rate developments. -
Asia markets jump on better AI sentiment, tech stocks lead gains
Market volatility and recovery driven by AI-related fears and sentiment shifts. -
Asia markets rise on better AI sentiment, Trump speech awaited By Reuters
Market moves explicitly framed by AI sentiment shifts and tech sector volatility.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Markets staged a tentative recovery after AI-related concerns spooked investors early in the week, with tech stocks leading gains in Asia as sentiment stabilized. The bounce came as mortgage rates dropped below 6% for the first time since 2022, providing a potential catalyst for housing market activity. However, Goldman Sachs warned that a stock market correction now poses the biggest risk to the economy, suggesting the recent AI volatility exposed underlying fragility in risk appetite.
The Setup
Fear gauges are cooling with the VIX dropping 6.95% to 19.55, signaling reduced hedging demand as markets find their footing. Bond markets are flashing mixed signals – US 10-year yields edged up 0.25% to 4.05% while German counterparts fell 0.37% to 2.71%, creating a divergence worth monitoring. EURIBOR 3-month rates hit fresh 52-week highs at 2.03%, up 0.5% daily, reflecting persistent European rate pressures even as broader sentiment improves. Currency markets remain steady with EUR/USD unchanged at 1.18.
Today’s Watch
India’s industrial production data for January drops at 10:30 AM local time, with manufacturing output previously at 8.1% year-over-year. The data could provide insight into emerging market momentum amid global tech sector uncertainty. CFTC positioning data released overnight shows EUR speculative net positions at 174.5K contracts, indicating continued bullish sentiment on the single currency. With light economic calendars in major markets, focus shifts to whether yesterday’s tech recovery can sustain without fresh catalysts, particularly as positioning data suggests investors remain cautiously optimistic despite recent volatility.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Keysight Technologies Inc. β +23.05%
- ImmunityBio, Inc. β +17.5%
- Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. β +17.18%
- Leonardo DRS, Inc. β +14.89%
- Beam Therapeutics Inc. β +13.98%
- Zeta Global Holdings Corp. β +13.35%
- Cipher Mining Inc. β +12.48%
- TeraWulf Inc. β +11.99%
π Top Losers
- CECO Environmental Corp. β -22.76%
- Xometry, Inc. β -22.24%
- Whirlpool Corporation β -13.87%
- Armstrong World Industries Inc β -9.61%
- Planet Fitness, Inc. β -8.97%
- Primoris Services Corporation β -8.28%
- Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Interna β -8.21%
- Fresenius Medical Care AG β -7.85%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02/27 | CA | GDP Implicit Price | π΄ High |
| Fri 02/27 | US | Chicago PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 02/27 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos | πΈ Med |
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.55 | -6.95% | -3.65% | 17.36β21.2 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.03% | +0.5% | +1.5% | 1.98β2.03 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.05% | +0.25% | -0.74% | 4.04β4.22 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.71% | -0.37% | -1.09% | 2.71β2.84 | π Offered |
Premium
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Federal Reserve policy stance and mortgage rate developments.
- Fed’s Collins Says Rates Likely on Hold ‘For Some Time’ β Bloomberg.com
- Mortgage rates just dropped below 6%, matching lowest level since 2022 β CNBC, 02/23/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market volatility and recovery driven by AI-related fears and sentiment shifts.
- Asia markets jump on better AI sentiment, tech stocks lead gains β Reuters, 02/25/2026
- Stocks Mount Tentative Recovery After AI Scare: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 02/24/2026
- Breaking Down the Doomsday AI Memo That Spooked Markets β WSJ, 02/24/2026
- Opinion | How Fast Will A.I. Agents Rip Through the Economy? β The New York Times, 02/24/2026
- Celebrating 250 million: Empowering communities to enable the global AI economy β The Official Microsoft Blog, 02/24/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market moves explicitly framed by AI sentiment shifts and tech sector volatility.
- Asia markets rise on better AI sentiment, Trump speech awaited By Reuters β Investing.com, 02/25/2026
- South Korea and Japan stocks hit fresh highs amid regional gains after Wall Street’s AI relief rally β CNBC, 02/24/2026
- Asia markets trade mixed after Trump revives tariff threat and AI fears hit tech β CNBC, 02/24/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Trade policy implementation and geopolitical economic impacts.
- Here Are the Countries and Products Subject to Tariffs Now β The New York Times, 02/24/2026
- Russia Remade Its Economy for War, but It’s Come at a Huge Cost β The New York Times
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Fundamental economic growth data and macro performance indicators.
- U.S. Economy Grew More Slowly at End of 2025 β The New York Times, 02/20/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- European stocks set for higher open as market nerves ease β CNBC, 02/25/2026
- Biggest risk to the economy now? Goldman says it’s a stock market correction β CNBC, 02/24/2026
- Trump to deliver State of the Union address as voters sour on his economy β CNBC, 02/24/2026
- Virginia Governor Spanberger rips into Trump on economy, immigration β Reuters, 02/25/2026
- Tech Firms Lead Asian Markets Rally As Seoul, Tokyo Hit Records β Barron’s, 02/25/2026
- Asian Stocks Rise, Dollar Slips On Trump Speech: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 02/25/2026
- Trump uses longest-ever State of the Union to try to convince voters that US is ‘winning so much’ β AP News, 02/25/2026
- ‘Buoyant’ Hong Kong economy spurs fiscal deficit turnaround, budget shows β Reuters, 02/25/2026
- To raise low birth rates, we must help mothers β Financial Times, 02/25/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- OpenAIβs planned cash burn is insane… β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-24
- In less than a year, Trump erased 12 years of solvency for the trust fund that pays for Medicare Part A β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-02-24
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 25, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-24
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 24, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-24
- FedEx sues for refund of Trump tariffs, days after Supreme Court ruling β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-24
- The Netherlands refuses to host European Para Swimming Championships due to Russia’s participation (translation in comments) β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-24
- Slovaks took to the streets to express solidarity with Ukraine and protest Fico’s decision to stop electricity supplies to Ukraine β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-24
- Slovak opposition formally files a criminal complaint against Fico for high treason, terrorism, inhumanity, and other suspected crimes β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-24