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DeepCap Week Ahead Outlook
The Week at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: NVIDIA earnings will redirect market focus from tariff noise to growth and AI performance |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 19.09, -5.64%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: NVIDIA (NVDA.US) quarterly earnings report |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
- Australia Is In โDifficult Positionโ on Rates, RBNZโs Silk Says
Central-bank commentary and conditional rate paths amid currency and geopolitical pressures. - Trump’s latest tariff salvos leave markets unfazed: ‘Sit still and do nothing,’ analysts say
A cluster of trade-policy moves from the Trump administration and reporting on how equity, FX and Treasury markets are responding regionally. - U.S. Economy Grew More Slowly at End of 2025
Sovereign and national economic stories showing weaker growth, reserve actions and political damage to economies.
The Week Ahead
The Weekend Signal
The dominant development was renewed U.S. tariff rhetoric over the weekend and the dissonant market response: equities in Asia largely shrugged while Treasury cash and futures registered fresh unease. That matters because tariffs are a supply-side inflation shock โ they push real rates and commodity prices in opposite directions to growth-sensitive assets. The immediate signal is split: the US 10-year sits at 4.07% (down 0.49% on the day) even as the VIX has eased to 19.09 (down 5.6%), suggesting investors are pricing a political shock as manageable for risk assets rather than as an outright recession trigger. If tariff measures harden or target key supply chains, expect upward pressure on yields and commodity prices and intermittent dollar strength; if rhetoric remains episodic, equities can keep digesting cyclicals and momentum.
The Macro Setup
The cross-asset picture is mixed and fragile. Volatility has retreated (VIX 19.09), EUR/USD is steady at 1.18, and front-end money-market rates (3M Euribor 2.02%) sit near policy-constrained levels, while core yields are described as โdepressedโ relative to recent peaks (US 10Y 4.07, DE 10Y 2.74). That combination โ lower implied volatility alongside still-elevated nominal yields โ looks like tentative risk-seeking with a pronounced sensitivity to policy or geopolitical shocks: calm until proven otherwise.
The Calendar
Key items this week are Nvidia earnings on Wednesday (2026-02-25), Australian S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs on Tuesday 22:00 AEDT (2026-03-03; forecast services 52.2 vs prior 56.3) and South Koreaโs Industrial Production and Retail Sales at 23:00 KST the same day (2026-03-03; mixed forecasts around 0.6โ1% vs uneven prior prints). Markets expect Nvidia to validate demand momentum in semis; a weak guide would compress cyclical leadership. The Australian PMIs are poised to show services cooling from strong prior readings โ a downside surprise would pressure cyclicals and AUD โ while softer-than-expected Korean production or retail figures would reinforce concerns about export-led weakness in Asia.
Key Events This Week
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 03/03 | EU | CPI | ๐ด High |
| Tue 03/03 | IT | CPI | ๐ด High |
| Tue 03/03 | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index | ๐ธ Med |
| Tue 03/03 | AU | S&P Global Services PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Tue 03/03 | AU | Judo Bank Services PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Tue 03/03 | AU | S&P Global Composite PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Tue 03/03 | AU | Services PMI | ๐ธ Med |
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.09 | -5.64% | -7.33% | 17.36โ21.77 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.02% | 0.0% | +1.0% | 1.98โ2.04 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.07% | -0.49% | +0.49% | 4.05โ4.28 | ๐ Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.74% | 0.0% | -0.72% | 2.74โ2.86 | ๐ Offered |
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๐ฐ Weekend Headlines Recap (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank commentary and conditional rate paths amid currency and geopolitical pressures.
- Australia Is In โDifficult Positionโ on Rates, RBNZโs Silk Says โ Bloomberg, 02/23/2026
- Israel Faces Close Call on Interest Rates as Iran Tensions Loom โ Bloomberg, 02/23/2026
- BOJ may raise rates in March if yen resumes slide, says ex-policymaker โ Reuters, 02/23/2026
US Tariffs and Market Reactions
A cluster of trade-policy moves from the Trump administration and reporting on how equity, FX and Treasury markets are responding regionally.
- Trump’s latest tariff salvos leave markets unfazed: ‘Sit still and do nothing,’ analysts say โ CNBC, 02/23/2026
- US tariff turmoil leaves Treasury markets dazed โ Reuters, 02/23/2026
- Asian Markets Shrug Off U.S. Tariff Uncertainties โ The Wall Street Journal, 02/23/2026
- Tariffs Are a Wild Card for the Economy Again โ The Wall Street Journal, 02/23/2026
- European stocks to start the week lower as markets react to new Trump tariffs โ CNBC, 02/23/2026
- Dollar, US Futures Decline on Tariff Uncertainty: Markets Wrap โ Bloomberg, 02/23/2026
- With US tariff rates up in the air, the economic fog again thickens By Reuters โ Investing.com, 02/23/2026
- South Korea’s Kospi hits fresh high as Asian markets brush off Trump’s latest tariff moves โ CNBC, 02/22/2026
Country Economies & Macro Growth
Sovereign and national economic stories showing weaker growth, reserve actions and political damage to economies.
- U.S. Economy Grew More Slowly at End of 2025 โ The New York Times, 02/20/2026
- Lebanon eyes sale of gold reserves to rescue banks and the economy โ Financial Times, 02/23/2026
- Venezuelaโs Leaders Killed the Economy. They Are Still In Charge. โ The Wall Street Journal, 02/23/2026
Market Churn and Sentiment
Analytical commentary describing underlying market volatility and sentiment beneath calm headline moves.
- Markets are churning furiously beneath a calm surface โ The Economist, 02/22/2026
Government shutdown & fiscal fallout
Headlines tying weaker growth and consumer pullback to a US government shutdown and its macro effects.
- US economic growth weaker than thought in fourth quarter with government shutdown, consumer pullback โ AP News, 02/20/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- US futures, bitcoin fall and Asian markets are mixed after the Supreme Court nixes Trump’s tariffs โ AP News, 02/23/2026
- China, India Among Winners After US Court Blocked Trump Tariffs โ Bloomberg, 02/23/2026
- Here Are the Countries and Products Subject to Tariffs Now โ The New York Times, 02/22/2026
- Asian markets mixed as Trump bypasses Supreme Court with new 15%tariff โ Seeking Alpha, 02/23/2026
- Oil drops as US and Iran prepare for further nuclear talks โ Reuters, 02/22/2026
- Watch Ellawn: GCC Continues to Outperform Many Global Markets โ Bloomberg, 02/23/2026
- Markets coiling, oil leading as dollar rebound signals build: BofA technicals (SP500:) โ Seeking Alpha, 02/22/2026
- The Grift Economy Goes Mainstream โ Investing.com, 02/23/2026
- At Least You Don’t Own a Flaming Jeep โ Bloomberg, 02/22/2026
- Thunderโs short-handed win over Cavaliers shows NBA markets stars too much โ The New York Times, 02/23/2026
Earnings Preview
- None
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Supreme Court rules that Trumpโs sweeping emergency tariffs are illegal | CNN Politics โ reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-20
- Iranian Rial has completely collapsed โ reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-21
- Supreme Court says Trump global tariffs are illegal โ reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-02-20
- Welcome to Scandinavia! Cruising the imaginary border between Sweden and Norway โ reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-21
- Trump Announces New 10% Global Tariff โ reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-20
- EU says it will accept no increase in US tariffs after Supreme Court ruling: ‘a deal is a deal’ โ reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-22
- Weekend Discussion Thread for the Weekend of February 20, 2026 โ reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-20
- Bitcoin falls below $65,000 as Trump tariff moves raise uncertainty โ reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-23