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DeepCap Wednesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Investors eye retail sales data amid easing market volatility. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 20.29, -4.29%) |
| β° | Key Event: Retail Sales data release at 8:30 AM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
RBNZ Leaves Interest Rates on Hold, Expects Inflation to Soften
Policy and rate-path headlines focused on central-bank decisions and IMF guidance for major Asian economies. -
New Zealand Holds Key Rate at 2.25% as Inflation Risks Build
Central-bank decisions and commentary (Fed, RBNZ) driving rate and FX dynamics across markets. -
Volatility Grips Wall Street as AI Anxiety Lingers: Markets Wrap
Market moves and commentary framed explicitly around AI-driven volatility and valuation worries.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Volatility remained the story: headline-driven AI anxiety and mixed macro headlines left VIX elevated even as it slipped to 20.29 (-4.29% on the day, +14.05% week-on-week). That pullback in implied volatility alongside still-elevated readings signals a fragile risk tone for today β risk trades can run but reversals will be sharp. Cross-asset, that dynamic keeps pressure on safe-haven bonds and gold if positioning unwinds, while currencies that rely on risk appetite (AUD, MXN) will feel any sudden repositioning.
The Setup
Risk-on signals are lukewarm. EUR/USD sits at 1.19, EURIBOR 3M is 2.0, US 10-year at 4.07 and Germany 10-year at 2.74; both bund and Treasury yields are described as depressed despite small intraday moves (DE10Y -0.72% today, US10Y +0.25%). The divergence is clear: implied volatility is above normal, but front-end and core sovereign yields are not spiking, implying traders are funding carry while keeping hedges. That mismatch β elevated VIX with subdued yields β raises the odds of a quick repricing if net-position data shift flows.
Today’s Watch
The market calendar is thin on headline macro but heavy on positioning prints: a cluster of CFTC speculative net-position releases at 20:30 (EUR previous 180.3; Gold 160; Copper 45.9; MXN 85; NZD -34.9) and NZ retail sales at 21:45. Markets expect routine updates; what would move prices is a material change versus those prior nets β e.g., a sharp drop in EUR longs or a big increase in gold longs. Focus for the session: whether the positioning prints trigger cross-asset flow reversals that re-ignite volatility or confirm the current, tentative carry-based setup.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Masimo Corporation β +34.22%
- ZIM Integrated Shipping Service β +25.45%
- eToro Group Ltd. β +20.43%
- Disc Medicine, Inc. β +17.19%
- Knife Riv Holding Co. β +16.34%
- Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd. β +16.04%
- National Energy Services Reunit β +16.03%
- Wingstop Inc. β +13.59%
π Top Losers
- Franklin Electric Co., Inc. β -14.65%
- Genuine Parts Company β -14.56%
- Herc Holdings Inc. β -13.29%
- IPG Photonics Corporation β -12.38%
- Liquidia Corporation β -11.41%
- Liberty Global Ltd. β -10.57%
- Trump Media & Technology Group β -9.74%
- Allegion plc β -9.38%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02/20 | US | GDP Price Index | π΄ High |
| Fri 02/20 | US | GDP Sales | π΄ High |
| Fri 02/20 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Services PMI Flash | πΈ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | πΈ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | πΈ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | πΈ Med |
Fed Speak This Week
- February 20 β Fed Bostic Speech (Dove)
- February 20 β Fed Logan Speech (Neutral)
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.29 | -4.29% | +14.05% | 16.34β21.77 | β οΈ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.19 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.0% | 0.0% | +1.01% | 1.98β2.04 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.07% | +0.25% | -1.93% | 4.05β4.28 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.74% | -0.72% | -2.49% | 2.74β2.89 | π Offered |
Premium
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*Premium* β EU DeepList Watch
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*Premium* β Risk Scenarios
π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy and rate-path headlines focused on central-bank decisions and IMF guidance for major Asian economies.
- RBNZ Leaves Interest Rates on Hold, Expects Inflation to Soften β The Wall Street Journal, 02/18/2026
- IMF urges Japan to keep raising rates, avoid reducing sales tax β Reuters, 02/17/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank decisions and commentary (Fed, RBNZ) driving rate and FX dynamics across markets.
- New Zealand Holds Key Rate at 2.25% as Inflation Risks Build β Bloomberg, 02/18/2026
- Dollar firm as focus turns to peace talks; Kiwi hit by RBNZ’s easy stance β Reuters, 02/18/2026
- Fedβs Barr Says Appropriate to Hold Rates for βSome Timeβ β Bloomberg, 02/17/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Market moves and commentary framed explicitly around AI-driven volatility and valuation worries.
- Volatility Grips Wall Street as AI Anxiety Lingers: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg, 02/17/2026
- What the 10-year Treasuryβs move toward 4% says about AI anxiety in markets β MarketWatch, 02/17/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Broader economy stories on growth prospects, consumer pain from conflict, and stagnation in major economies.
- Food prices are surging in Russia. Is the war hitting Russians in the pocket? β BBC, 02/18/2026
- US markets and the economy are heading into uncharted territory β Financial Times, 02/17/2026
- The US economy is turning β Financial Times, 02/17/2026
- German economy remains stuck and set for just 1% growth in 2026, chamber of commerce says β Reuters, 02/17/2026
- Russiaβs economy has entered the death zone β The Economist, 02/16/2026
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Coverage of firms and strategies targeting China’s evolving domestic-consumption landscape.
- CNBC’s The China Connection newsletter: Businesses scramble to reach China’s growing experiences economy β CNBC, 02/18/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Asia Set for Positive Open After Choppy US Session: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg, 02/18/2026
- European stocks set for higher open as traders monitor global market moves β CNBC, 02/18/2026
- Emerging Markets Strike Cautious Note Amid Holidays, Fed Anxiety β Bloomberg, 02/17/2026
- US investment grade credit markets care about the tech wreck, just not very much β Financial Times, 02/17/2026
- European markets close higher as investors digest key points from Munich Security Conference β CNBC, 02/16/2026
- Robinhood Says Its Private-Markets Fund Will Go Public in Coming Weeks β The Wall Street Journal, 02/17/2026
- “We will see you in court”: U.S. commission fights states on prediction markets β Axios, 02/17/2026
- Opinion | States Encroach on Prediction Markets β The Wall Street Journal, 02/16/2026
- REITs Rally As Rates Retreat β Seeking Alpha, 02/17/2026
- CFTC Faces More Pushback From States Over Prediction Markets β Bloomberg, 02/18/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Tesla Sales Down 55% in UK, 58% in Spain, 59% in Germany, 81% in Netherlands, 93% in Norway vs. 2024 β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-17
- Costco defied Trumpβs DEI directive as Target and Walmart scaled back. Business is booming β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-02-17
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 17, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-17
- Ukraine Makes Fastest Battlefield Gain inΒ 2.5 Years asΒ Starlink Disruption Hits Russia Hard β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-17
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 18, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-17
- ‘We will discriminate’: Elon Musk-backed Restore Britain party launches with hard-right vision -Rupert Lowe MP vowed that ‘millions must go’ and called for a ban on halal and kosher slaughter β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-17
- Netflix grants Warner Bros. Discovery 7-day waiver to reopen deal talks with Paramount Skydance β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-17
- Bitcoin Crash Forshadows The Next US Recession; ‘Buy The Dip’ Mantra Is Over, Strategist Says β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-02-17