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DeepCap Tuesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| ๐ฏ | Theme: Focus on retail sales data as markets react to economic uncertainty. |
| ๐ | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 21.2, +2.91%) |
| โฐ | Key Event: Retail Sales data release at 10:00 AM |
| ๐ฅ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch โ |
Key Headlines
-
Bank of England to cut rates in March, timing of further cuts unclear: Reuters poll
Central-bank guidance and rate decisions shaping market expectations across the UK, Europe and Asia. -
AI disruption could spark a โshock to the systemโ in credit markets, UBS analyst says
Headlines linking AI-driven disruption to market risks, here specifically warning of stress in credit markets. -
Asia markets cautious ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks
Geopolitical and diplomatic developments (notably USโIran talks) that are influencing regional market caution.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
A bond rally was the market’s headline: US 10โyear yields slid to 4.03% after rate-sensitive assets outperformed, signaling traders are leaning into slower Fed tightening expectations. That move fed a modest dollar bid and higher equity dispersion โ today will test whether minutes and GDP confirm a durable pivot in rates or merely a tactical reversal that reprices duration and FX flows.
The Setup
Risk is jittery: the VIX sits at 21.2, up 2.9% on the day and more than 22% week-on-week, while US 10โyear yields are depressed at 4.03% and German 10โyear at 2.76%. EUR/USD is steady at 1.19 and EURIBOR 3โmonth is about 2.0, inside its narrow range. The divergence between elevated volatility and falling core yields points to positioning-driven moves: equity leaders and laggards showed idiosyncratic shocks yesterday, not broad sector rotation.
Today’s Watch
The calendar is light until a cluster of CFTC speculative position prints at 20:30 (AUD prev 33.2; GBP prev -25.8; GOLD prev 160; CRUDE prev 117.8; NZD prev -34.9; MXN prev 85; CAD prev 13.3; BRL prev 31.6; CORN prev -18.3), followed by New Zealand retail sales at 21:45 (prev 1.2). Markets also enter the session awaiting Fed minutes and US GDP headlines flagged yesterday; a hawkish tilt in minutes or stronger GDP would likely reverse the bond rally and lift the dollar, while softer outcomes would reinforce lower yields and risk repricing in commodities and FX. Focus: whether CFTC positioning confirms the recent flow into duration and commodity longs or prompts abrupt unwind.
Market Movers
๐ Top Gainers
- Evolution Metals & Technologies โ +29.92%
- Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. โ +26.8%
- Rivian Automotive, Inc. โ +26.64%
- Magna International, Inc. โ +18.87%
- Coinbase Global, Inc. – 3 โ +16.46%
- ICON plc โ +16.13%
- Fastly, Inc. โ +13.84%
- Fermi Inc. โ +11.12%
๐ Top Losers
- Disc Medicine, Inc. โ -21.91%
- Bright Horizons Family Solution โ -18.25%
- Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc โ -17.62%
- Pinterest, Inc. โ -16.83%
- Callaway Golf Company โ -15.05%
- DraftKings Inc. โ -13.51%
- Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. โ -12.78%
- Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. โ -12.26%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02/20 | US | GDP Sales | ๐ด High |
| Fri 02/20 | US | GDP Price Index | ๐ด High |
| Fri 02/20 | CA | Retail Sales | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Services PMI Flash | ๐ธ Med |
| Fri 02/20 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | ๐ธ Med |
Fed Speak This Week
- February 20 โ Fed Bostic Speech (Dove)
- February 20 โ Fed Logan Speech (Neutral)
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | ฮ d/d | ฮ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.2 | +2.91% | +22.12% | 16.34โ21.77 | โ ๏ธ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.19 | 0.0% | โ | โ | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.0% | +1.01% | 0.0% | 1.98โ2.04 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.03% | -0.49% | -4.28% | 4.03โ4.28 | ๐ Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.76% | 0.0% | -2.82% | 2.76โ2.89 | ๐ Offered |
Premium
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*Premium* โ Risk Scenarios
๐ฐ Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank guidance and rate decisions shaping market expectations across the UK, Europe and Asia.
- Bank of England to cut rates in March, timing of further cuts unclear: Reuters poll โ Reuters, 02/16/2026
- Dollar holds gains in thin trading as markets await Fed minutes, US GDP โ Reuters, 02/17/2026
- Romania to Hold Rates as Sticky Inflation Prevents Debate on Cut โ Bloomberg.com, 02/17/2026
- Australia central bank sees no set path for future rates, following Feb hike โ Reuters, 02/17/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Headlines linking AI-driven disruption to market risks, here specifically warning of stress in credit markets.
- AI disruption could spark a โshock to the systemโ in credit markets, UBS analyst says โ CNBC, 02/13/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Geopolitical and diplomatic developments (notably USโIran talks) that are influencing regional market caution.
- Asia markets cautious ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks โ Reuters, 02/17/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Broader economic assessments and country-level growth updates that set the backdrop for markets.
- US markets and the economy are heading into uncharted territory โ Financial Times, 02/17/2026
- Russiaโs economy has entered the death zone โ The Economist, 02/16/2026
- Japan’s economy avoids technical recession, but fourth-quarter rebound misses expectations โ CNBC, 02/16/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Macro narratives on uneven recoveries, structural economic divides, and early political tests tied to growth.
- Japanโs fragile Q4 economic recovery poses early test for Takaichi โ Reuters, 02/16/2026
- What Executives Are Saying About the โK-Shapedโ Economy โ The New York Times, 02/11/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- European markets set to open lower as earnings remain in focus โ CNBC, 02/17/2026
- Asian Stocks Set for Muted Start in Holiday Trade: Markets Wrap โ Bloomberg.com, 02/16/2026
- Bonds Rise on Rate Bets; Gold Dips Below $5,000: Markets Wrap โ Bloomberg.com, 02/16/2026
- Global week ahead: Markets brace for more AI noise and ‘scare trading’ โ CNBC, 02/15/2026
- Victory Sophus Emerging Markets Fund Q4 2025 Commentary (Mutual Fund:USEMX) โ Seeking Alpha, 02/17/2026
- Opinion | States Encroach on Prediction Markets โ The Wall Street Journal, 02/16/2026
- Donald Trumpโs schemes to juice the economy โ The Economist, 02/15/2026
- Morning Bid: Quiet markets, loud diplomacy: All eyes on Iran By Reuters โ Investing.com, 02/17/2026
- Diplomatic Feud With China Weighs on Japanโs Economy โ The New York Times, 02/16/2026
- The Quiet Architect of Trumpโs Global Trade War โ The New York Times, 02/16/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Companies Set to Unleash Sweeping Price Hikes Thanks to Trump โ reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-02-16
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 17, 2026 โ reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-16
- US interference in Polish politics โoutrageousโ, Polandโs foreign minister says โ reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-16
- Carney constructs a mega anti-US trade alliance – The Canadian prime minister is spearheading discussions between the EU and a major Indo-Pacific trade bloc after calling on middle powers to join forces โ reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-16
- Belgian Foreign Minister officially summons US ambassador following fierce outburst aimed at Belgium: “Unacceptable statements” โ reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-16
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 16, 2026 โ reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-16
- My biggest day yet โ reddit.com/r/Daytrading, 2026-02-16