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DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market sentiment shifts as traders react to mixed economic signals. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 20.82, +17.96%) |
| β° | Key Event: GDP data release at 10:00 AM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Trump Wants Lower Rates. The Fed Sees Little Reason to Comply.
Headlines focused on rate policy debates and central-bank direction, including political pressure on the Fed. -
What would it take for the Fed to raise rates?
Discussion of the Fed’s policy trigger points and what would prompt another rate move. -
Asian Stocks to Drop as AI Jitters Hit Wall Street: Markets Wrap
Asia-focused equity weakness attributed to renewed AI-related sentiment jitters on Wall Street.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Volatility reasserted itself: the VIX jumped 17.96% to 20.82 as AI-related sentiment swings and mixed earnings headlines pushed risk assets around. That spike signals a cautious open today β expect thinner risk appetite into early hours and a bias for headline-driven, idiosyncratic moves rather than broad market trends. Cross-asset, the volatility spike came alongside modest Treasury yield gains, so the immediate reaction looks equity-specific rather than a broad flight-to-safety.
The Setup
Risk reads uneven. VIX 20.82 sits elevated, US 10βyear at 4.12% (up 0.49%) and Germany 10βyear at 2.78% (down 0.71%), leaving the USβGermany spread near 1.34 percentage points. EUR/USD is steady at 1.19 while EURIBOR 3M is 1.99, close to its 52βweek low (1.98). The divergence β a sharp rise in equity volatility with only modest moves in core yields and a stable euro β points to concentrated stock-level dispersion (Fastly +72%, ICON -39.85%) and sector-focused risk, not a wholesale macro shock.
Today’s Watch
Focus shifts to Asia overnight: Japan releases Q4 GDP and cinvestorx at 23:50 (consensus: GDP 0.4% q/q, annualized 2.0; GDP price index 3.5%) and Korea posts January trade figures at 23:55 (exports forecast +33.9%). Markets expect growth rebound in Japan and resilient Korean exports; upside surprises in Japanβs GDP or price index would pressure JGBs and strengthen the case for a firmer yen, while weaker external demand in Korea would deepen risk-off. Session focus: whether volatility cools and earnings chatter refocuses flows, or whether idiosyncratic shocks keep risk-premia elevated.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Fastly, Inc. β +72.29%
- Cognex Corporation β +36.35%
- IPG Photonics Corporation β +35.48%
- Sphere Entertainment Co. β +22.07%
- Iridium Communications Inc β +21.29%
- Crocs, Inc. β +19.01%
- McGraw Hill, Inc. β +15.96%
- US Foods Holding Corp. β +13.4%
π Top Losers
- ICON plc β -39.85%
- RXO, Inc. β -20.45%
- Applovin Corporation β -19.68%
- The Magnum Ice Cream Company N. β -17.92%
- Baxter International Inc. β -15.99%
- Landstar System, Inc. β -15.6%
- Tyler Technologies, Inc. β -15.39%
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. β -15.17%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 02/15 | JP | GDP Capital Expenditure | π΄ High |
| Sun 02/15 | JP | GDP Price Index | π΄ High |
| Sun 02/15 | JP | GDP External Demand | π΄ High |
| Sun 02/15 | JP | GDP Growth Annualized | π΄ High |
| Sun 02/15 | JP | GDP Growth Rate | π΄ High |
| Sun 02/15 | JP | GDP Private Consumption | π΄ High |
Fed Speak This Week
- February 14 β ECB Lagarde Speech
- February 15 β ECB President Lagarde Speech
- February 15 β ECB Lagarde Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.82 | +17.96% | -4.36% | 16.15β21.77 | β οΈ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.19 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 1.99% | +0.51% | -2.45% | 1.98β2.04 | π Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.12% | +0.49% | -2.37% | 4.1β4.28 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.78% | -0.71% | -2.46% | 2.78β2.89 | π Offered |
Premium
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*Premium* β Risk Scenarios
π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Headlines focused on rate policy debates and central-bank direction, including political pressure on the Fed.
- Trump Wants Lower Rates. The Fed Sees Little Reason to Comply. β Barron’s, 02/12/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Discussion of the Fed’s policy trigger points and what would prompt another rate move.
- What would it take for the Fed to raise rates? β Reuters, 02/12/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Asia-focused equity weakness attributed to renewed AI-related sentiment jitters on Wall Street.
- Asian Stocks to Drop as AI Jitters Hit Wall Street: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 02/13/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Pieces on markets repricing the economic and profit implications of AI-driven disruption.
- AI Whack-A-Mole as Markets Continue Repricing the Cost of Disruption β Investing.com, 02/13/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Stories examining labour-market dynamics, uneven growth patterns and their implications for the broader economy.
- The US economy is growing – so where are all the jobs? β BBC, 02/13/2026
- Reeves says ‘more to do’ after sluggish GDP growth β BBC, 02/12/2026
- What Executives Are Saying About the βK-Shapedβ Economy β The New York Times, 02/11/2026
- The office job decline may solve a mystery of the 2020s economy β Axios, 02/12/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Russia’s economy will keep slowing in first half of 2026, Interfax quotes minister as saying β Reuters, 02/12/2026
- Brazilβs economy is being throttled by entrenched interests β The Economist, 02/11/2026
- The Big Money in Todayβs Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor – WSJ β The Wall Street Journal, 02/10/2026
- Malaysia’s economy grows at fastest pace in 3 years in 2025, exceeding expectations β Reuters, 02/13/2026
- Trade bellwether Singapore says global βfragilityβ will hit economy β Financial Times, 02/13/2026
- Stock Futures Rise as Traders Watch Earnings, Data: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 02/12/2026
- Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Iran Concerns Ebb, Wider Markets Drop β Bloomberg.com, 02/13/2026
- Deutsche Bankβs private bank eyes hiring push in emerging markets By Reuters β Investing.com, 02/13/2026
- SoftBank’s PayPay moves closer to public markets with US IPO filing β Reuters, 02/12/2026
- Jamie Dimon Must Lower Credit Card Interest Rates, Navarro Says β Bloomberg.com, 02/12/2026
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 12, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-12
- Winter Olympics 2026: Ukrainian athlete disqualified from skeleton over helmet tribute β live β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-12
- If AMZN goes up 8% tomorrow this will be worth $1 million. If not, Iβm cooked β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-12
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 13, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-12
- Macron advocates for a single European energy grid. French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday advocated for a single European energy market and for the construction of an integrated electricity grid β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-12
- βThe fiscal trajectory is not sustainableβ: Congressional Budget Office Warns About the Highest Debt in U.S. History as Trump Adds $1.4 Trillion to 10-year Deficit β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-02-12
- βSport shouldnβt mean amnesia, and the Olympic movement should help stop wars, not play into the hands of aggressors,β Zelensky wrote on X. β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-12