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DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Tech sector weakness pressures global markets amid cautious investor sentiment. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 21.77, +16.79%) |
| β° | Key Event: BoE Gov Bailey Speech at 10:00 AM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
India’s central bank keeps policy rates steady at 5.25% as U.S., EU trade deals set to support growth
Multiple central banks kept policy steady or signalled future easing, and political pressure around Fed appointments highlights rate-path and policy risk. -
Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75%
Multiple central banks holding or signalling steady policy β market and FX moves are tracking rate decisions and guidance. -
Watch India Keeps Rates Steady: What It Means for Markets
Central-bank rate decisions and signals on policy path in major economies.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The dominant move was the tech/software rout bleeding into credit markets β equities sold across the sector and strained debt spreads, and that spillover set a risk-off tone heading into today. Expect risk assets to start the session on the defensive, with any hawkish or dovish tilt from central-bank actors likely to re-price both equity risk premia and short-term funding costs.
The Setup
Volatility has jumped: VIX sits at 21.77 (up 16.79% on the day and at its 52βweek high), while US 10βyear yields are at 4.20 and labeled βdepressed,β suggesting safe-haven bid despite equity stress. EURIBOR 3M is 2.04 (near its high), exposing a divergence between sticky European short-term funding and softer US yields. EUR/USD is unchanged at 1.18. Watch the dislocation: equity volatility and pressure in credit versus mechanically lower long yields β that mix can amplify directional moves in FX, gilts and corporate spreads.
Today’s Watch
Key items: BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 06:40 β markets will parse whether he narrows the path to cuts after the hold; a more hawkish tone could lift sterling and steepen gilts. UK House Price Index at 07:00 is forecast +0.4% vs -0.6% prior β a surprise to the upside would undercut near-term easing bets. Chinaβs FX reserves at 08:00 (forecast 3.36 vs 3.358 prior) will influence EM sentiment and the yuan; Japan posts overtime pay and average cash earnings late (23:30β23:50), where stronger wage prints would matter for BoJ expectations. Focus for the session: policy signals from Bailey and the House Price print, and whether flows tied to the tech/credit stress sustain elevated VIX and keep yields anchored.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Phibro Animal Health Corporatio β +21.95%
- Kulicke and Soffa Industries, I β +19.27%
- SiTime Corporation β +17.91%
- FormFactor, Inc. β +17.19%
- McKesson Corporation β +16.52%
- The Ensign Group, Inc. β +13.85%
- Regal Rexnord Corporation β +12.17%
- Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. β +11.58%
π Top Losers
- Fluence Energy, Inc. β -34.63%
- Ralliant Corporation β -31.79%
- Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T β -19.19%
- CleanSpark, Inc. β -19.13%
- MARA Holdings, Inc. β -18.72%
- Hut 8 Corp. β -17.89%
- Strategy Inc β -17.12%
- Maximus, Inc. β -16.51%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- February 6 β Fed Jefferson Speech (Neutral)
- February 8 β BoE Gov Bailey Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.77 | +16.79% | +28.97% | 15.64β21.77 | β οΈ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.04% | +0.49% | +0.49% | 2.02β2.04 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.2% | +0.48% | -0.94% | 4.18β4.3 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.85% | -0.35% | +0.35% | 2.84β2.91 | π Offered |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Multiple central banks kept policy steady or signalled future easing, and political pressure around Fed appointments highlights rate-path and policy risk.
- India’s central bank keeps policy rates steady at 5.25% as U.S., EU trade deals set to support growth β CNBC, 02/06/2026
- Bank of England holds rates after narrow 5-4 vote, signals reduction ahead β Reuters, 02/05/2026
- ECB holds rates but it’s not a ‘non-event,’ economists say. Here’s why β CNBC, 02/05/2026
- Trump would decide whether to investigate Fed pick Warsh over refusal to cut rates: Bessent β CNBC, 02/05/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Multiple central banks holding or signalling steady policy β market and FX moves are tracking rate decisions and guidance.
- Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% β BBC, 02/05/2026
- ECB holds interest rates at 2% β Financial Times, 02/05/2026
- ECB’s Escriva sees interest rates stable β Reuters, 02/06/2026
- Traders bet the ECB will stick with steady rates, keeping one eye on the euro β Reuters, 02/05/2026
- India’s central bank keeps rates on hold after US trade deal β Reuters, 02/06/2026
- Bank of Canada says restructuring of economy will take years β Reuters, 02/05/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank rate decisions and signals on policy path in major economies.
- Watch India Keeps Rates Steady: What It Means for Markets β bloomberg.com, 02/06/2026
- Bank of England votes narrowly to hold rates but signals reduction ahead β Reuters, 02/05/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
A tech/software-led sell-off is rippling across equities and credit, with Asian markets following Wall Street’s tech weakness.
- The Software Rout Is Spreading Pain to the Debt Markets β The Wall Street Journal, 02/06/2026
- Asian Stocks to Fall as US Tech, Crypto Extend Dip: Markets Wrap β bloomberg.com, 02/06/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Tech-led selloffs and growth fears are roiling markets and amplifying risk aversion.
- Growth Scare Hits Markets Edgy From Tech Selloff β The Wall Street Journal, 02/05/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- U.S. Economy Shed Nearly 1 Million Job Openings Last Year β The Wall Street Journal, 02/05/2026
- Can emerging marketsβ stellar run continue? β The Economist, 02/04/2026
- The Global Economyβs Warning Signals Are Broken β The New York Times, 02/03/2026
- Indonesian markets resume selloff after Moody’s cuts outlook β Reuters, 02/06/2026
- US dollar hits two-week high, pound slumps after BoE holds rates β Reuters, 02/06/2026
- Falling tech stocks and a plunge for bitcoin hit Wall Street β AP News, 02/05/2026
- CNBC Daily Open: Amazon’s projected capex dwarfs that of its peers β which have already spooked markets β CNBC, 02/06/2026
- Chinaβs Easy Money Floods Metals Markets as Real Economy Falters β bloomberg.com, 02/06/2026
- Prabowo Puts Indonesia on Collision Course With Global Investors β bloomberg.com, 02/06/2026
- CME Group hikes gold, silver margins again as volatility grips markets β Reuters, 02/06/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 05, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-05
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 06, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-05
- Getting flushed β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-05
- Epstein Files: Steve Bannon was an advisor to the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-05
- MSTR is sitting on an $8.8 billion unrealized loss β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-05
- “Three to four months left.” Putin was warned of a major economic crisis by the summer. β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-05