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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Stocks rebound as market digests Fed’s rate stance and economic growth signals. |
| π | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 16.9, -15.88%) |
| β° | Key Event: CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions release at 3:30 PM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Fed to hold rates through March, and possibly through Powell’s tenure, on strong growth: Reuters poll
Policy commentary and market moves tied to central-bank guidance and rising mortgage/rate dynamics. -
More Japanese Companies See Downside to Rising Rates
Policy decisions and interest-rate developments across major economies that influence credit conditions and markets. -
Global bond markets shaken by Japan selloff, Greenland worries
Bond-market stress tied to a Japan-led selloff and geopolitical ‘Greenland’ worries is rattling global yields.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Markets snapped back after the White House walked back threatened tariffs on Europe β that reversal was the single biggest mover, cutting risk premia and halving the prior dayβs selloff. Expect todayβs session to test whether the relief rally sticks: equities can stay firm, but the move removes a near-term geopolitical overhang and keeps cross-asset flows biased toward risk assets for now.
The Setup
Sentiment shows that shift: VIX plunged to 16.9 (-15.9%), yet yields edged up β US 10-year at 4.26 (+0.24%) and Germany 10-year at 2.88 (+0.7%) β a growth-optimism mix rather than outright complacency. EURIBOR 3M sits elevated at 2.03, underscoring tighter euro-area money markets. The key divergence is falling volatility alongside rising yields; that combination can sustain equity gains but raises sensitivity to any fresh hawkish CPI/Fed cues or renewed trade headlines.
Today’s Watch
The marketβs attention will land on a batch of CFTC speculative net-position releases at 20:30 (S&P, Nasdaq, commodities and several FX pairs) β prior S&P net positions were -122.1, a metric that could confirm whether shorts are being covered. Geopolitical headlines or re-escalation of tariff talk would reverse the recent rally; mechanically, look for US 10-year yields to test the 4.3 area and for the CFTC prints to show whether positioning has shifted enough to fuel a sustained move.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Lucid Group, Inc. β +17.88%
- Moderna, Inc. β +15.84%
- ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. β +14.58%
- Rambus, Inc. β +14.38%
- TMC the metals company Inc. β +13.31%
- BioNTech SE β +11.78%
- Intel Corporation β +11.72%
- Dana Incorporated β +10.86%
π Top Losers
- MakeMyTrip Limited β -12.13%
- Legend Biotech Corporation β -11.36%
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β -9.91%
- Credo Technology Group Holding β -9.18%
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. β -7.95%
- Intuitive Machines, Inc. β -7.5%
- Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat β -7.48%
- Vizsla Silver Corp. β -7.48%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales Ex Autos | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | πΈ Med |
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.9 | -15.88% | +0.9% | 14.49β20.09 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.03% | 0.0% | +0.5% | 2.02β2.03 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.26% | +0.24% | +2.9% | 4.14β4.3 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.88% | +0.7% | +2.13% | 2.81β2.88 | π Bid |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy commentary and market moves tied to central-bank guidance and rising mortgage/rate dynamics.
- Fed to hold rates through March, and possibly through Powell’s tenure, on strong growth: Reuters poll β Reuters, 01/21/2026
- SNB’s Schlegel: Negative rates possible if Swiss franc stays strong β CNBC, 01/22/2026
- Mortgage refinances surged again, but rates are now suddenly jumping higher β CNBC, 01/21/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy decisions and interest-rate developments across major economies that influence credit conditions and markets.
- More Japanese Companies See Downside to Rising Rates β Bloomberg, 01/22/2026
- ECB’s Lagarde says European economy needs ‘deep review’ to face new world order β Reuters, 01/21/2026
- With Trump taking aim at credit card rates, now is the best time to improve your credit score β CNBC, 01/21/2026
- China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged despite slowing economic growth β CNBC, 01/20/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Bond-market stress tied to a Japan-led selloff and geopolitical ‘Greenland’ worries is rattling global yields.
- Global bond markets shaken by Japan selloff, Greenland worries β Reuters, 01/20/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Headlines covering tariffs, international trade deals and market reactions to tariff developments.
- Wall Street ends higher as investors cheer Greenland framework deal, averted tariffs β Reuters, 01/22/2026
- Geopolitical and tariff risk back with a bang for markets β Reuters, 01/21/2026
- EU suspends approval of US trade deal β BBC, 01/21/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Geopolitical and trade shifts between the US and Europe that are creating market uncertainty and policy debate.
- What a Break With Europe Means for the American Economy – WSJ β The Wall Street Journal, 01/20/2026
- Trump Wants Greenland. Markets Donβt Know What to Make of That. β The Wall Street Journal, 01/19/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Why one major money manager is banking on Trump finding a Greenland off-ramp that calms markets β CNBC, 01/21/2026
- Trump is erasing the global economic order β Financial Times, 01/20/2026
- Argentinaβs Economy Shrank More Than Expected After Midterm Vote β Bloomberg, 01/21/2026
- Mexico’s economy up 2.3% y/y in December, preliminary estimate shows β Reuters, 01/21/2026
- China Wins as Trump Cedes Leadership of the Global Economy β The New York Times, 01/22/2026
- South Korea Economy Weakened in 2025 as Tariffs Took a Toll β The Wall Street Journal, 01/22/2026
- South Korea economy unexpectedly contracts in Q4, but AI boom brightens outlook β Reuters, 01/22/2026
- Japan may struggle to calm markets tripped up by Takaichi’s taboo tax cut β Reuters, 01/21/2026
- China can’t make consumers buy goods, so it leans on services to drive economy β Reuters, 01/20/2026
- South Korea’s Economy Grew Just 1% In 2025, Lowest In Five Years β Barron’s, 01/22/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- President Trump says he will no longer be imposing 10% tariffs on EU countries on February 1st. β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-21
- Daily Discussion Thread for January 21, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-21
- Zelensky calls for European army of 3 million soldiers β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-21
- The American president steps back from the brink. But the damage has been done. β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-21
- Ukraine will not send troops to Greenland, says Zelenskyy β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-21
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, January 22, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-21
- Iβm going to throw up. From $30k loss to $200k+ SPY gains in 5 minutes β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-21