DeepCap Friday Outlook

Investors weigh economic signals as industrial production data looms.

DeepCap Friday Outlook

The Day at a Glance

🎯 Theme: Investors weigh economic signals as industrial production data looms.
πŸ“Š Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.87, +1.47%)
⏰ Key Event: Industrial Production data release at 10:00 AM
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Key Headlines

  1. BOJ signals more hikes in hawkish tilt, warns of action against yield spike
    Central-bank decisions, moves in sovereign yields and FX reactions are driving market positioning and policy expectations.
  2. Mortgage refinances surged again, but rates are now suddenly jumping higher
    Policy guidance and retail-rate moves are driving mortgage and deposit behaviour and market expectations about the rate path.
  3. Fed Not Seen Cutting Rates Again Until June in Latest Survey
    Central-bank decisions, market rate signals and liquidity moves are driving yield dynamics and market calm.

The Day Ahead

Yesterday’s Takeaway
The Bank of Japan’s hawkish tilt β€” holding the policy rate but flagging more hikes and warning against a yield spike β€” was the dominant market mover, keeping the yen choppy and forcing investors to reassess global rate differentials. Expect today’s session to remain sensitive to JPY moves and any shifts in sovereign yields as traders reprice the odds of further BOJ tightening; that repricing can ripple into FX crosses, US Treasuries and commodity flows.

The Setup
Risk tone is subdued but watchful: VIX sits at 15.87 (+1.47%), signalling calm with a bit more nervousness, EUR/USD has jumped to 1.18 (+0.85%), and US 10-year yields eased to 4.24% (-0.24%) while Germany’s 10-year is at 2.89% (unchanged). Short-term Euribor remains elevated at 2.03%. The notable divergence is falling US yields versus persistent European yields and an emboldened BOJ β€” that mix supports FX volatility and creates two-way pressure on global rates and carry trades.

Today’s Watch
Key prints arrive at 20:30 US time when a suite of CFTC speculative net position reports posts β€” previous positions include EUR 132.7, Gold 251.2 and JPY -45.2 β€” which could amplify moves already driven by central-bank repricing. Earlier, Industrial Production for Israel is due at 11:00 (prior 0.3) but lacks a consensus forecast. Markets expect modest position churn; surprises in CFTC flows, or a larger-than-expected JPY response to BOJ rhetoric, will set the session’s tempo. Focus: JPY/jgb dynamics and whether positioning reads shift FX and commodity trends.

Market Movers

πŸ“ˆ Top Gainers

  • Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β€” +40.44%
  • Evolution Metals & Technologies β€” +23.68%
  • Critical Metals Corp. β€” +20.89%
  • Americas Gold and Silver Corpor β€” +18.93%
  • Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat β€” +17.99%
  • USA Rare Earth, Inc. β€” +17.49%
  • Navitas Semiconductor Corporati β€” +15.68%
  • GRAIL, Inc. β€” +14.83%

πŸ“‰ Top Losers

  • Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. β€” -16.0%
  • Abbott Laboratories β€” -10.04%
  • Old Republic International Corp β€” -9.3%
  • McCormick & Company, Incorporat β€” -8.05%
  • GE Aerospace β€” -7.38%
  • Alphatec Holdings, Inc. β€” -7.22%
  • Legend Biotech Corporation β€” -6.84%
  • Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. β€” -6.48%

Key Events Today

Date Region Event Impact
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales Ex Autos πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 US S&P Global Composite PMI πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 US S&P Global Services PMI πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/23 US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash πŸ”Έ Med
View Full Calendar

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level Ξ” d/d Ξ” w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 15.87 +1.47% +0.06% 14.49–20.09 πŸ“‰ Subdued
EUR/USD 1.18 +0.85% β€” β€” Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.03% 0.0% +0.5% 2.02–2.03 πŸ“ˆ Sticky
US 10Y 4.24% -0.24% +1.44% 4.14–4.3 Neutral
DE 10Y 2.89% 0.0% +1.76% 2.81–2.89 πŸ“ˆ Bid

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πŸ“° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Central-bank decisions, moves in sovereign yields and FX reactions are driving market positioning and policy expectations.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Policy guidance and retail-rate moves are driving mortgage and deposit behaviour and market expectations about the rate path.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Central-bank decisions, market rate signals and liquidity moves are driving yield dynamics and market calm.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Central-bank commentary on cross-border rate dynamics and inflation risks.

Trade & Diplomacy

Tariff rhetoric and diplomatic developments are re-shaping regional markets and risk sentiment.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

Market Futures

Social Media Buzz

For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

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