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DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: Market eyes economic data as central banks signal potential policy shifts. |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.84, -5.43%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: Producer Price Index release at 8:30 AM |
| 🔥 | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch → |
Key Headlines
-
Exclusive: Some in BOJ see scope to raise rates sooner than markets expect, sources say
Policymakers and rate moves across major central banks and the mortgage market are shaping yield expectations and housing activity. -
Global Corporate Bond Yield Premiums Fall to Lowest Since 2007
Headlines focused on interest-rate guidance, yield moves and rate-sensitive flows that shape market positioning. -
Morning Bid: How much more yen jawboning before intervention?
Headlines focused on central-bank policy, FX jawboning and political pressure affecting rate dynamics.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The Reuters report that some inside the BOJ see scope to raise rates sooner than markets expect was the day’s single-market mover. That repricing of Japanese policy shifts the cross-asset map: it adds upside pressure to regional yields and the yen while complicating the carry trade that’s been buoyed by flows from China’s $1.2 trillion windfall and stronger US earnings. For today that means risk assets start on a conditional footing—earnings and China flows support equities, but any fresh hawkish BOJ color would tighten global yield curves and sap sentiment.
The Setup
Volatility eased; VIX is 15.84 (-5.43%) even as US 10-year yield slipped to 4.17 (-0.24%). EUR/USD sits at 1.16 flat, German 10-year at 2.82 with EURIBOR 3M depressed at 2.02. The divergence is clear: implied equity volatility down and core yields slightly lower, yet Asian rate risk is being repriced higher after the BOJ signals and ahead of Asian data—an intra-market tug between China-driven liquidity and potential central-bank hawkish surprises.
Today’s Watch
Key items: Bundesbank President Nagel speaks at 10:00 (market will parse tone on ECB path), Colombia posts retail sales and industrial production at 15:00, Korea’s PPI prints at 21:00 (forecast 1.7% vs 1.9% prior), and Japan reports machinery orders at 23:50 (mixed forecasts). Portugal holds presidential voting at 00:00. Markets expect marginally cooler Asian inflation and steady ECB messaging; surprises—hawkish Nagel, stronger Korea PPI, or firmer Japan orders—would amplify yield repricing. Focus for the session: whether BOJ-driven rate repricing continues to dominate flows or if China-linked liquidity and earnings momentum keep risk assets bid.
Market Movers
📈 Top Gainers
- Figure Technology Solutions, In — +16.37%
- Erasca, Inc. — +15.04%
- Galaxy Digital Inc. — +13.48%
- Fluence Energy, Inc. — +12.58%
- Penumbra, Inc. — +11.82%
- Talen Energy Corporation — +11.8%
- StubHub Holdings, Inc. — +11.36%
- AtriCure, Inc. — +10.94%
📉 Top Losers
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L — -14.53%
- Arcus Biosciences, Inc. — -11.28%
- Circle Internet Group, Inc. — -9.67%
- Beam Therapeutics Inc. — -9.49%
- Reddit, Inc. — -9.36%
- NewMarket Corp — -8.36%
- USA Rare Earth, Inc. — -8.15%
- Celcuity Inc. — -8.04%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- January 16 — Fed Bowman Speech (Hawk)
- January 16 — Fed Jefferson Speech (Neutral)
- January 17 — Bundesbank Nagel Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.84 | -5.43% | +2.52% | 14.2–16.75 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | 0.0% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.02% | 0.0% | -0.49% | 2.02–2.03 | 📉 Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.17% | -0.24% | 0.0% | 4.11–4.2 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.82% | 0.0% | -0.35% | 2.81–2.9 | 📉 Offered |
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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policymakers and rate moves across major central banks and the mortgage market are shaping yield expectations and housing activity.
- Exclusive: Some in BOJ see scope to raise rates sooner than markets expect, sources say — Reuters, 01/16/2026
- Poland May Cut Rates Already in February, MPC’s Kotecki Says — Bloomberg.com, 01/16/2026
- Australian Rate Increase Could Be More Likely Than Markets Expect — wsj.com, 01/16/2026
- China central bank to cut sector-specific rates to boost economy — Reuters, 01/15/2026
- Mortgage rates fall to lowest level in over 3 years as home-buying activity picks up — MarketWatch, 01/15/2026
- Trump’s new push for lower rates — Axios, 01/14/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Headlines focused on interest-rate guidance, yield moves and rate-sensitive flows that shape market positioning.
- Global Corporate Bond Yield Premiums Fall to Lowest Since 2007 — Bloomberg.com, 01/16/2026
- Rates Spark: Sterling Rates And U.S. TIC Data — Seeking Alpha, 01/16/2026
- Can Mark Carney Trump-proof Canada’s economy? — Financial Times, 01/16/2026
- Fed’s Schmid Says Inflation Warrants Keeping Interest Rates Unchanged — wsj.com, 01/15/2026
- Pound Drops and Bond Yields Rise After GDP Data — Bloomberg.com, 01/15/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Headlines focused on central-bank policy, FX jawboning and political pressure affecting rate dynamics.
- Morning Bid: How much more yen jawboning before intervention? — Reuters, 01/16/2026
- Trump’s Fed fight looks like something from another country — BBC, 01/16/2026
- BOJ to raise rates again to 1% or higher by end-September, possibly by July: Reuters poll — Reuters, 01/15/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Stories driven by AI optimism or valuation narratives that are moving tech and related equities.
- Asian Tech Stocks to Rise on Renewed AI Optimism: Markets Wrap — Bloomberg.com, 01/16/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Shipping and trade-route developments that directly affect freight and global trade flows.
- Maersk ramps up Suez Canal return that could dampen freight rates — Reuters, 01/15/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- German economy breaks 2-year slide with modest 2025 growth — Reuters, 01/15/2026
- Wage hike decision ‘actively damaging’ Isle of Man economy — BBC, 01/16/2026
- UK economy bounces back in November, boosted by JLR recovery — Reuters, 01/15/2026
- US farm economy shows widening cracks as costs rise, jobs vanish — Reuters, 01/15/2026
- Germany’s economy is so bad even sausage factories are closing — The Economist, 01/15/2026
- UK economy surprises with stronger-than-expected 0.3% growth in November — CNBC, 01/15/2026
- Germany’s Economy Grows for First Time Since 2022 — wsj.com, 01/15/2026
- Number of Businesses in New York City Plunged Last Spring, Report Says — The New York Times, 01/15/2026
- China’s $1.2 Trillion Windfall Quietly Seeps Into Global Markets — Bloomberg.com, 01/16/2026
- Asian chip stocks advance, Taiwan outperforms after trade deal with U.S. — CNBC, 01/16/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Germany’s Merz Admits Nuclear Exit Was Strategic Mistake — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-15
- Anger in Iceland over incoming US ambassador’s ‘52nd state’ joke — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-15
- 69 bagger, $30k -> $2.09mil — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-15
- Daily Discussion Thread for January 15, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-15
- Finland and Estonia Announced Joining Denmark-led NATO exercise in Greenland — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-15
- Rightwing Dutch activist banned from UK — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-15
- Trump is preparing to unleash inflation on his own voters — reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-01-15
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, January 16, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-15