DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

Market reacts to Fed's influence as retail sales data looms.

DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

The Day at a Glance

🎯 Theme: Market reacts to Fed’s influence as retail sales data looms.
📊 Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.12, +4.35%)
⏰ Key Event: Retail Sales data release at 8:30 AM
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Key Headlines

  1. Pound Edges Higher as Fed Threat Hits Dollar
    Headlines focused on the Fed, questions about Fed independence and related market/currency moves driven by policy and legal pressure on the central bank.
  2. Stocks and Treasuries calm after Fed indictment jitters, dollar weakens
    Fed leadership, investigations and commentary plus policy actions are driving market moves, dollar swings and mortgage-rate changes.
  3. Transcript: Markets shrug off investigation into Powell
    Multiple headlines focus on the US Fed and Chair Jerome Powell — legal scrutiny and political attacks are driving market moves, safe-haven flows and headlines around policy credibility.

The Day Ahead

Yesterday’s Takeaway
The dominant move was a softer dollar after reports of subpoenas and political pressure on the Fed, which flipped cross markets: equities pushed to new closing records, gold hit fresh highs and the yen weakened to lows versus the dollar. That dynamic signals risk appetite remains fragile—equities can rally on a weaker dollar even as real-rate drivers keep Treasury yields high—so expect today’s trading to test whether the political shock is transitory or persistently alters policy risk premia.

The Setup
Risk metrics are mixed. VIX is up to 15.12 (+4.35%), still low but elevated versus recent troughs; EUR/USD has jumped to 1.17 (+0.86%), underscoring dollar pressure. US 10-year yields sit at 4.20% (+0.48%) while Germany’s 10-year is 2.84% (-1.05%), a gap that keeps cross-border carry and FX flows active. EURIBOR 3M is at 2.02 (-0.49%), near its low — a reminder money markets aren’t pricing aggressive short-term tightening. The divergence—rising US yields alongside a weaker dollar and equity strength—is the key risk imbalance to monitor.

Today’s Watch
Key items: Bundesbank chief Nagel speaks at 10:00 CET; Colombia posts Retail Sales and Industrial Production at 15:00 (IP forecast 0.5% vs prior 1.9%); CFTC speculative position updates (including crude, corn, aluminium, AUD, GBP) at 20:30 US. Markets expect softer IP; a downside surprise would undercut commodity demand narratives and pressure EM FX. Focus: whether Nagel or the IP prints shift yield-FX interplay and reprice the policy-risk premium that has been driving cross-asset moves.

Market Movers

📈 Top Gainers

  • Beam Therapeutics Inc. — +22.29%
  • Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat — +21.64%
  • Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited — +21.6%
  • Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor — +15.86%
  • BillionToOne, Inc. — +15.37%
  • MACOM Technology Solutions Hold — +12.97%
  • Fermi Inc. — +12.96%
  • CoreWeave, Inc. — +12.22%

📉 Top Losers

  • Alphatec Holdings, Inc. — -22.34%
  • Nuvation Bio Inc. — -19.65%
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Company — -17.69%
  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — -15.02%
  • Summit Therapeutics Inc. — -13.41%
  • Urban Outfitters, Inc. — -12.31%
  • GeneDx Holdings Corp. — -11.92%
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. — -11.29%

Key Events Today

No major economic events scheduled.

View Full Calendar

Fed Speak This Week

  • January 16 — Fed Bowman Speech (Hawk)
  • January 16 — Fed Jefferson Speech (Neutral)
  • January 17 — Bundesbank Nagel Speech

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level Δ d/d Δ w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 15.12 +4.35% +1.48% 13.47–15.45 ⚠️ Elevated
EUR/USD 1.17 +0.86% — — Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.02% -0.49% -0.49% 2.02–2.03 📉 Easing
US 10Y 4.2% +0.48% +0.72% 4.11–4.2 📈 Bid
DE 10Y 2.84% -1.05% -1.05% 2.81–2.9 Neutral

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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Headlines focused on the Fed, questions about Fed independence and related market/currency moves driven by policy and legal pressure on the central bank.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Fed leadership, investigations and commentary plus policy actions are driving market moves, dollar swings and mortgage-rate changes.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Multiple headlines focus on the US Fed and Chair Jerome Powell — legal scrutiny and political attacks are driving market moves, safe-haven flows and headlines around policy credibility.

AI/Tech Valuation Jitters

Features on the AI-driven concentration of wealth and implications for markets and valuations.

Trade & Diplomacy — Europe Defense/Energy Trend

European shift toward a ‘war economy’ and defense spending is being framed as a long-term industrial/commodity trend.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

Market Futures

Social Media Buzz

For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

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