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DeepCap Wednesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: Investors brace for CPI data amid mixed global market signals. |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.75, -1.01%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: CPI release at 8:30 AM |
| 🔥 | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch → |
Key Headlines
-
Fed should not cut rates in 2026 – but it will, and it could be inflationary: Nations Indexes
Central-bank commentary and rate-path views shaping expectations for monetary policy and inflation. -
Raymond James: Quite A Big Income Effect From Lower Rates (NYSE:RJF)
Items focused on central-bank commentary, the rate path and implications for income and euro/Asian rate markets. -
Rates Outlook: The Bar Is High to Move Euro Rates
Outlook piece focused on the high hurdle for moving euro-area interest rates and the broader rate path.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
US equities pushed to fresh highs as cautious Fed rhetoric and thin headlines dominated flow; Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari signaled that rates don’t need large additional cuts, and the dollar nudged higher. That mix leaves today vulnerable to policy-sensitivity: a hawkish tone or stickier inflation signals would lift yields and dent the risk rally, while benign data would reinforce equity momentum.
The Setup
Risk reads as fragile upside. VIX sits at 14.75 (-1.01% day, +2.93% week) — elevated despite equity highs — EUR/USD at 1.17 is neutral, EURIBOR 3M is 2.03 and at its 52-week high, US 10‑yr at 4.17 is range-bound and Germany 10‑yr slipped to 2.85 (-0.7%). The divergence — record-level equity prices against an elevated VIX and rising short-term euro funding — points to complacent positioning with policy-rate uncertainty simmering.
Today’s Watch
Key reads arrive at 15:00 ET: University of Michigan surveys (inflation expectations forecast 4.2, sentiment 53.2) alongside a Kashkari speech; Atlanta Fed GDPNow prints at 15:30 ET. Later, Baker Hughes rig count (18:00 ET, prior 412) and Fed’s Barkin at 18:35 ET could move oil and rates. Markets expect steady consumer inflation expectations and modest sentiment improvement; upside surprises in expectations or hawkish Fed comments are the tail risks that would lift yields and test equity leadership — that’s the session’s focus.
Market Movers
📈 Top Gainers
- OneStream, Inc. — +28.38%
- Sandisk Corporation — +27.56%
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L — +22.15%
- Western Digital Corporation — +16.77%
- Seagate Technology Holdings PLC — +14.0%
- Hecla Mining Company — +12.87%
- ViaSat, Inc. — +12.88%
- Navitas Semiconductor Corporati — +12.6%
📉 Top Losers
- McGraw Hill, Inc. — -10.98%
- InterDigital, Inc. — -7.99%
- SoFi Technologies, Inc. — -7.86%
- PBF Energy Inc. — -7.69%
- American International Group, I — -7.48%
- Modine Manufacturing Company — -7.46%
- Roblox Corporation — -6.43%
- KANZHUN LIMITED – American Depo — -6.47%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/09 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 🔴 High |
| Fri 01/09 | CA | Unemployment Rate | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 01/09 | US | Unemployment Rate | 🔸 Med |
| Fri 01/09 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 🔸 Med |
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- January 9 — ECB Lane Speech
- January 9 — Fed Kashkari Speech (Hawk)
- January 9 — Fed Barkin Speech (Neutral)
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.75 | -1.01% | +2.93% | 13.47–14.95 | ⚠️ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.03% | 0.0% | +0.5% | 2.0–2.03 | 📈 Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.17% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.11–4.2 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.85% | -0.7% | -0.35% | 2.83–2.9 | Neutral |
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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank commentary and rate-path views shaping expectations for monetary policy and inflation.
- Fed should not cut rates in 2026 – but it will, and it could be inflationary: Nations Indexes — CNBC, 01/07/2026
- Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari indicates interest rates don’t need to be cut much more — CNBC, 01/05/2026
Rates, central banks & mortgages
Items focused on central-bank commentary, the rate path and implications for income and euro/Asian rate markets.
- Raymond James: Quite A Big Income Effect From Lower Rates (NYSE:RJF) — Seeking Alpha, 01/07/2026
- Rates Spark: The Bar Is High To Move Euro Rates — Seeking Alpha, 01/07/2026
- Thai economy’s competitiveness is declining, central bank says By Reuters — Investing.com, 01/07/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Outlook piece focused on the high hurdle for moving euro-area interest rates and the broader rate path.
- Rates Outlook: The Bar Is High to Move Euro Rates — Investing.com, 01/07/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Geopolitical moves and political-risk headlines raising questions about territorial ambitions and regional economic fallout.
- After Trump’s Military Victory in Venezuela, Cuba’s Economy Is in ‘Freefall’ — The New York Times, 01/07/2026
- Prediction markets show rising odds Trump seizes Panama Canal, moves on Greenland — CNBC, 01/06/2026
- Trump wants to take over Greenland — but the island’s economy faces ‘major challenges’ — CNBC, 01/06/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Geopolitical action tied to oil and dollar geopolitics with potential trade/finance implications.
- Trump’s Venezuela oil grab revives ‘petrodollar’ debate — Reuters, 01/07/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Merz Says Parts of German Economy in ‘Very Critical’ Condition — Bloomberg.com, 01/06/2026
- Martin Wolf on the economy in 2026 — Financial Times, 01/07/2026
- Thai economy’s competitiveness is declining, central bank says — Reuters, 01/07/2026
- Chinese Buyers Crowd Markets to Share in Silver’s Rally — Bloomberg.com, 01/07/2026
- Asian defense stocks pull back amid mixed regional trading, geopolitical uncertainty — CNBC, 01/06/2026
- European markets head for mixed open as Greenland fears grow — CNBC, 01/07/2026
- FTSE 100 Live: Index Hits Fresh Record as Miners Gain — Bloomberg.com, 01/07/2026
- Stocks rise to records, dollar edges up as investors await economic news — Reuters, 01/06/2026
- Stock Market News, Jan. 6, 2026: Dow Adds New Record, Closes Above 49000 — The Wall Street Journal, 01/07/2026
- Record Stock Rally Stalls in Asia, Oil Declines: Markets Wrap — Bloomberg.com, 01/07/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland: “We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power,” he said. “These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.” — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-06
- Joint Statement by European Allies on Greenland — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-01-06
- US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military – White House — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-06
- Retired US general says US ‘needs Europe’ to ‘save it’ from itself — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-01-06
- Daily Discussion Thread for January 06, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-06
- Danish Foreign Policy Committee called to emergency meeting to discuss Denmark–US relations — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-06
- Dutch Navy Suspends Joint Anti-Drug Operations with US in Caribbean — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-06