DeepCap Week Ahead Outlook

Venezuela shock lifts defense stocks as PPI and high yields test market resilience

DeepCap Week Ahead Outlook

The Week at a Glance

🎯 Theme: Venezuela shock lifts defense stocks as PPI and high yields test market resilience
📊 Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.51, -2.94%)
⏰ Key Event: Producer Price Index (PPI) release
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Key Headlines

  1. Bank of Japan chief vows to keep raising interest rates
    Central-bank policy and fiscal/monetary interactions that can shift global rates and market positioning.
  2. Israel to Hold Rates as Regional and Domestic Politics Wobble
    Policy and rate-path headlines, including central-bank decisions and drivers for Treasury yields.
  3. Emerging-Market Stocks Set for Record High on Tech Optimism
    Tech-led optimism shaping equity moves, particularly in growth/EM assets tied to tech sentiment.

The Week Ahead

The Weekend Signal

The capture of Venezuela’s Maduro dominated headlines and re-routed risk flows over the weekend: defense stocks jumped in Asia while oil swung and several Gulf markets traded lower. That matters because the episode raises the odds of episodic supply-risk shocks to oil and forces investors to re-price geopolitical risk into energy, defense equities and sovereign debt — a live cross-asset stress test heading into a week that includes large Treasury supply and crude inventory data. Markets have so far priced the event as episodic rather than structural: oil volatility and regional equity weakness are visible, but broader risk measures have not pierced higher territory.

The Macro Setup

The risk picture is cautious but contained. VIX sits at 14.51 (down intraday but up 6.7% week-over-week), signalling still-subdued realised volatility despite a weekly uptick in fear. US 10-year yields are at 4.18 (slightly lower intraday but up week-over-week) while German 10s are at 2.90 and showing an elevated move, and EURIBOR 3M at 2.03 is steady. The notable divergence is higher sovereign yields alongside a VIX that remains tame — markets are moving risk through rates and curves rather than volatility spikes. That combination keeps price discovery active but points to elevated caution: shocks will show up via rates and commodity channels before equities reprice materially.

The Calendar

Key items this week concentrate on Tuesday: the US Monthly Budget Statement (Tue 19:00 US; market forecast -250 vs prior -173) and a large 30‑year Treasury auction (Tue 18:00 US) that could widen long-end yields if demand softens. Oil markets get the API crude report (Tue 21:30 US), which can amplify the weekend’s Venezuela-driven swings if inventories surprise. Earlier on Tuesday, US New Home Sales print and, later, Japan’s money-supply release may offer additional nuance to the BOJ’s tightening narrative. No major corporate earnings headline the week.

Key Events This Week

Date Region Event Impact
Tue 01/13 US CPI 🔴 High
Tue 01/13 US CPI s.a 🔴 High
Tue 01/13 US CPI 🔴 High
View Full Calendar

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level Δ d/d Δ w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 14.51 -2.94% +6.69% 13.47–17.62 📉 Subdued
EUR/USD 1.17 0.0% — — Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.03% 0.0% +0.5% 2.0–2.05 Neutral
US 10Y 4.18% -0.48% +1.7% 4.11–4.2 Neutral
DE 10Y 2.9% +1.4% +1.4% 2.83–2.9 📈 Bid

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📰 Weekend Headlines Recap (6 themes)

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Central-bank policy and fiscal/monetary interactions that can shift global rates and market positioning.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Policy and rate-path headlines, including central-bank decisions and drivers for Treasury yields.

AI/Tech Valuation Jitters

Tech-led optimism shaping equity moves, particularly in growth/EM assets tied to tech sentiment.

Trade & Diplomacy — Venezuela shock and energy-market implications

Multiple pieces on Maduro’s ouster/capture and policy actions that could reshape energy flows, winners/losers and market reaction.

Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth

Broad economy pieces and data-driven takeaways to watch for 2026.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

Market Futures

Social Media Buzz

For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

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