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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market sentiment remains cautious amid holiday trading and economic uncertainties. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.95, +4.33%) |
| β° | Key Event: Tax Revenue data release, time not specified |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Economist Mark Zandi sees the Fed surprising with three rate cuts in first half of 2026
Fed and funding-market developments that speak to the near-term rate path and liquidity dynamics. -
Mortgage Rates at 2025 Low Give Homebuyers Momentum in New Year
Policy signals from the Fed and falling mortgage rates are shaping the outlook for yields and housing demand. -
Americaβs economy looks set to accelerate
Broad macro takes on US growth prospects and the headline risks heading into 2026.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
US equities closed out a strong year, but the headline was mixed: risk assets rallied into year-end even as Treasury yields ticked higher and volatility crept up. That sets a fragile tone for today β the market is positioned for upside, yet rising US 10βyear yields (4.17%, +0.97%) and a higher VIX (14.95, +4.33%) mean buyers need confirming liquidity and rate signals to sustain gains. Cross-asset: silver weakness and crypto underperformance suggest commodities and digital assets may lag equities if rates remain elevated.
The Setup
Today’s risk picture is a one-step-forward, half-step-back setup: EUR/USD sits flat at 1.17, EURIBOR 3M is 2.02, and German 10βyear yields are steady at 2.86 β steady European backdrop versus slightly firmer US yields. The notable divergence is between equity momentum (year-end gains) and rising US yields plus a tick up in VIX, which elevates tail-risk sensitivity. Idiosyncratic volatility is also high: big biotech swings β Corcept down ~50% β and sectoral moves in energy and consumer names keep dispersion elevated.
Today’s Watch
Key scheduled prints: US Fed balance sheet (21:30 ET) and Baker Hughes rig count (18:00 ET), with Australiaβs Services PMIs and Judo Bank Services PMI at 23:00 local (23:00 listed). Markets expect the Uruguay inflation print (17:00) to slow to 3.9% from 4.09%. Watch the Fed balance sheet for liquidity confirmation, Baker Hughes for oil-price shifts that could feed energy names, and whether US yields extend their move β that will determine if the yearβend equity bid broadens or narrows.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. β +22.75%
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK β +9.65%
- Ondas Holdings Inc. β +8.57%
- Trump Media & Technology Group β +5.33%
- PBF Energy Inc. β +4.15%
- Nike, Inc. β +4.12%
- Cytokinetics, Incorporated β +3.54%
- Icahn Enterprises L.P. – Deposi β +3.42%
π Top Losers
- Corcept Therapeutics Incorporat β -50.42%
- QXO, Inc. β -8.32%
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β -8.3%
- NIO Inc. β -7.27%
- “Sprott Physical Silver Trust” β -6.23%
- Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Du β -5.99%
- Xometry, Inc. β -5.81%
- XPeng Inc. β -4.7%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/02 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | π΄ High |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Unemployment Rate | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | CA | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | πΈ Med |
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.95 | +4.33% | +10.99% | 13.47β17.62 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.02% | 0.0% | -0.98% | 2.0β2.07 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.17% | +0.97% | +0.97% | 4.11β4.18 | π Bid |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.83β2.9 | Neutral |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed and funding-market developments that speak to the near-term rate path and liquidity dynamics.
- Economist Mark Zandi sees the Fed surprising with three rate cuts in first half of 2026 β CNBC, 12/31/2025
- Fed buying, record repo facility use steady year-end US funding markets β Reuters, 12/31/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy signals from the Fed and falling mortgage rates are shaping the outlook for yields and housing demand.
- Mortgage Rates at 2025 Low Give Homebuyers Momentum in New Year β Bloomberg.com, 12/31/2025
- Division at the Fed: Some officials want to keep interest rates on hold “for some time” β Axios, 12/30/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Broad macro takes on US growth prospects and the headline risks heading into 2026.
- Americaβs economy looks set to accelerate β The Economist, 12/30/2025
- The U.S. economy is facing no shortage of worries as it heads into 2026 β MarketWatch, 12/31/2025
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Beijing policy moves and demographic measures that signal macro/structural direction for 2026.
- China’s plan to boost birth rates with condom tax and cheaper childcare β BBC, 12/31/2025
- China’s Xi promises more proactive macro policies in 2026 β Reuters, 12/31/2025
Market Moves & Daily Wraps
Year-end market wrap-ups, charts and summaries capturing asset performance and sector moves across regions.
- Stock Market News, Dec. 31, 2025: Silver Prices Slide; Dow Inches Lower to End 2025 β The Wall Street Journal, 01/01/2026
- What just happened? Ten charts to help make sense of markets in 2025 β Reuters, 12/31/2025
- US stocks clinch double-digit annual gains, capping a stellar year β Reuters, 12/31/2025
- European markets close mixed on last trading day of 2025; Defense stocks rose β CNBC, 12/31/2025
- Here are 5 key charts that defined a wild year for global financial markets β MarketWatch, 12/31/2025
- Global stock markets’ winners and losers of 2025 β and where they’re headed β CNBC, 12/31/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- US stock market ends 2025 on a high note after volatile year β BBC, 12/31/2025
- 5 themes that defined business and markets in 2025: Morning Squawk β CNBC, 12/31/2025
- Modiβs A-Team Sets the Stage for an Encore in 2026 β Bloomberg.com, 01/01/2026
- Bitcoin set for first yearly loss since 2022 as macro trends weigh on crypto β Reuters, 12/31/2025
- Vaccination rates plummet nationwide. See how your county compares β Axios, 12/31/2025
- Most of Iran Shuts Down as Government Grapples With Protests and Economy β The New York Times, 12/31/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Wendy’s newest hire starts tomorrow β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-31
- US halts raid on shadow fleet tanker after Russian flag appears β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-31
- Chechen leader urgently hospitalised in Moscow β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-31
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 31, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-31
- Poland calls for EU action against AI-generated TikTok videos calling for “Polexit” β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-31
- Stay away from options β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-31