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DeepCap Wednesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Investors weigh Fed’s cautious stance amid year-end market adjustments. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.33, +0.92%) |
| β° | Key Event: Tax Revenue release |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Division at the Fed: Some officials want to keep interest rates on hold “for some time”
Fed minutes and immediate market FX/treasury reactions set the rate-path tone for year-end positioning. -
Fed minutes show officials were in tight split over December rate cut
Fed policy deliberations and rate-path signals that could influence yields and markets. -
Most Gulf markets retreat as Saudi and UAE clash over Yemen
Geopolitical tensions are weighing on regional markets, linking diplomatic clashes to market moves.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Fed minutes dominated: officials signaled rates could be on hold βfor some time,β but the read showed internal division β a message that underpinned a year-end equity bid even as core rates drifted higher. That suggests todayβs session will test whether the pause narrative can coexist with rising sovereign yields and a firmer dollar.
The Setup
Risk gauges are mixed: VIX sits subdued at 14.33 (up 0.92%), EUR/USD has slid to 1.17 (down 0.85%), US 10βyr yields are 4.13% (up 0.49%) and Germanyβs 10βyr is 2.86% (up 1.06%), while Euribor 3M is steady at 2.02. The key divergence is clear β equity momentum and low volatility versus a modest pickup in global yields and dollar strength β a configuration that raises sensitivity to macro prints or balance-sheet signals.
Today’s Watch
Focus centers on the Fed balance-sheet release at 21:30 (US) and the Baker Hughes rig count at 18:00; Australia posts Services and Judo Bank Services PMIs at 23:00. Markets currently price a policy pause tone from the Fed minutes; a surprise in the balance-sheet path (faster runoff or unexpected expansion) would lift yields and tighten financial conditions, while softer-than-expected Australian services PMIs would undercut commodity-linked FX and EM risk. Todayβs session will hinge on whether yields confirm their drift higher or the pause narrative reasserts itself, and how the dollar reacts to those signals.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. β +15.52%
- FTAI Aviation Ltd. β +14.38%
- Fermi Inc. β +7.58%
- Under Armour, Inc. β +7.53%
- Ondas Holdings Inc. β +6.26%
- Navan, Inc. β +5.39%
- Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. β +5.12%
- Americold Realty Trust, Inc. β +4.78%
π Top Losers
- Corcept Therapeutics Incorporat β -12.06%
- Trump Media & Technology Group β -8.67%
- Vipshop Holdings Limited β -6.92%
- Energy Fuels Inc β -5.71%
- Rivian Automotive, Inc. β -5.22%
- Hut 8 Corp. β -5.22%
- Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. β -5.14%
- Beta Technologies, Inc. β -4.82%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/02 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | π΄ High |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Unemployment Rate | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | CA | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | πΈ Med |
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.33 | +0.92% | +2.36% | 13.47β17.62 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.85% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.02% | 0.0% | -1.46% | 2.0β2.08 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.13% | +0.49% | -0.96% | 4.11β4.18 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | +1.06% | 0.0% | 2.83β2.9 | Neutral |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed minutes and immediate market FX/treasury reactions set the rate-path tone for year-end positioning.
- Division at the Fed: Some officials want to keep interest rates on hold “for some time” β Axios, 12/31/2025
- Dollar holds gains after Fed minutes β Reuters, 12/30/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed policy deliberations and rate-path signals that could influence yields and markets.
- Fed minutes show officials were in tight split over December rate cut β CNBC, 12/30/2025
Trade & Diplomacy
Geopolitical tensions are weighing on regional markets, linking diplomatic clashes to market moves.
- Most Gulf markets retreat as Saudi and UAE clash over Yemen β Reuters, 12/30/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Assessment of national growth trajectories and policy/headline risks shaping economic outlooks.
- Americaβs economy looks set to accelerate β The Economist, 12/30/2025
- The year the U.S. economy bent but didn’t break β Axios, 12/30/2025
- US economy to ride tax cut tailwind but faces risks β Reuters, 12/29/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Fiscal and tax-policy changes that could materially affect US growth and consumer finances in 2026.
- Tax changes loom large for US economy in 2026 β Reuters, 12/29/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Xi Declares Chinaβs Economy Set to Hit 5% Growth Goal in 2025 β Bloomberg.com, 12/31/2025
- India is set to overtake Japan β and, yes, California β and become the worldβs fourth-largest economy β MarketWatch, 12/30/2025
- China will push more proactive macro policies in 2026, Xi says By Reuters β Investing.com, 12/31/2025
- Chinaβs economy looks more resilient than it feels as a property slump drags on β AP News, 12/30/2025
- Stocks Set for Biggest Annual Advance in Six Years: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/31/2025
- Asia-Pacific markets fall in year-end trade; investors parse China manufacturing data β CNBC, 12/31/2025
- European markets head for lower open on last trading day of 2025 β CNBC, 12/31/2025
- Stocks Waver in 2025βs Last Days; Treasuries Fall: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/30/2025
- Global stock markets’ winners and losers of 2025 β and where they’re headed β CNBC, 12/31/2025
- In a Wild Year for Markets, Investors Who Did Nothing Did Just Fine β The Wall Street Journal, 12/28/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Russian βGhost Shipβ sank off Spain while smuggling Nuclear reactor parts likely bound for North Korea β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-30
- Blackout in the Moscow region, more than 100,000 consumers without power β video β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-30
- βͺTomorrow is Warren Buffetβs last day as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway! β¬ β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-30
- Live: Russia declines to provide proof of alleged drone attack on Putin’s home β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-30
- US removal of panels honoring Black soldiers at WWII cemetery in the Netherlands draws backlash β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-30
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 30, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-30