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DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: U.S. economic resilience contrasts with cautious global market sentiment. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 13.47, -3.79%) |
| β° | Key Event: Manufacturing Production data release at 10:00 AM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Fed chair candidate Hassett says U.S. is way behind the curve on lowering interest rates
Commentary and opinion on the Fed, rate-setting and views on the pace of policy easing. -
Fed Should Lower Rates If the Market Does Well, Trump Says
Political pressure and commentary related to Fed policy that could influence the rate outlook. -
US economy grew at 4.3% rate in third quarter
Multiple outlets reporting stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth and consumer-driven strength.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The clear market mover was the surprise strength in U.S. activity β headlines flagged 4.3% GDP growth β and markets treated it as growth-confirming rather than recession-risk, which pushed 10-year yields up to 4.16% and equities to favour cyclicals and small-cap winners. For today that means the benchmark story is growth vs. rates: stronger data keeps upward pressure on yields and tilts the session toward rate-sensitive sectors and EM sentiment.
The Setup
Risk gauges are subdued: VIX sits at 13.47 (down 3.8% on the day and at its 52-week low), EUR/USD is flat at 1.18, while US 10-year yields are higher by 0.73% to 4.16. Short-term euro rates (EURIBOR 3M) are depressed at 2.0, down ~2%, and German 10s are steady at 2.86. The notable divergence is falling volatility alongside rising U.S. yields β markets are pricing growth without commensurate risk premia, which leaves positioning vulnerable to data shocks or central-bank signals.
Today’s Watch
Key releases: Israel manufacturing and industrial production at 11:00 (manufacturing consensus 3.4% vs prior -5.6%), China industrial profits at 01:30, and the BoJ Summary of Opinions at 23:50. The CFTC speculative net positions report (including S&P speculative short of -190.4 previously) posts around 20:30 and could reveal positioning stress. Markets expect a re-acceleration in production; upside would reinforce the growth/yield mix and pressure rate-sensitive assets, while downside would undercut the current complacency. Focus the session on moves in U.S. yields, cyclicals, and any BoJ language that shifts JPY/drivers of global carry.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. β +25.5%
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK β +15.62%
- Travere Therapeutics, Inc. β +13.91%
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK β +13.55%
- UiPath, Inc. β +7.52%
- Almonty Industries Inc. β +6.79%
- Zai Lab Limited β +6.29%
- Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V β +6.07%
π Top Losers
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. β -8.89%
- Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat β -8.03%
- D-Wave Quantum Inc. β -5.49%
- Beta Technologies, Inc. β -4.74%
- Perpetua Resources Corp. β -4.04%
- Fermi Inc. β -4.0%
- IonQ, Inc. β -3.06%
- On Holding AG β -2.92%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 13.47 | -3.79% | -23.55% | 13.47β17.62 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.0% | -1.96% | -3.85% | 2.0β2.1 | π Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.16% | +0.73% | +0.48% | 4.12β4.19 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | 0.0% | +0.35% | 2.85β2.9 | π Offered |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Commentary and opinion on the Fed, rate-setting and views on the pace of policy easing.
- Fed chair candidate Hassett says U.S. is way behind the curve on lowering interest rates β CNBC, 12/23/2025
- Opinion: Why Jerome Powell was right all along about interest rates, inflation and the economy β MarketWatch, 12/23/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Political pressure and commentary related to Fed policy that could influence the rate outlook.
- Fed Should Lower Rates If the Market Does Well, Trump Says β Bloomberg.com, 12/23/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth (U.S. GDP beats and outlook)
Multiple outlets reporting stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth and consumer-driven strength.
- US economy grew at 4.3% rate in third quarter β Financial Times, 12/23/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Top-line US growth and consumer resilience data that set the near-term macro backdrop.
- Resilient US consumers drive strongest economic expansion in 2 years β AP News, 12/23/2025
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Regional policy and structural economic pieces from Asia that speak to reform and tech/industrial strategy.
- Chinaβs Sprint for Tech Dominance Canβt Hide an Economy Full of Holes β The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2025
- Narendra Modi turns his focus to reforming Indiaβs economy β Financial Times, 12/23/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Asian Stocks Set for Muted Open in Holiday Trade: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/26/2025
- Asia markets edge higher amid holiday-thinned trade; gold and silver hit fresh highs β CNBC, 12/25/2025
- Asia markets mixed in Christmas Eve trading; gold crosses $4,500 for the first time β CNBC, 12/23/2025
- Most Gulf markets fall on lower oil prices β Reuters, 12/25/2025
- S&P 500, Dow hit all-time closing highs; gold, silver touch records β Reuters, 12/24/2025
- Economy grows, chip tariff delay, new S&P 500 record and more in Morning Squawk β CNBC, 12/24/2025
- Rubleβs World-Beating Rally Poses New Risk for Russian Economy β Bloomberg.com, 12/24/2025
- Stocks Hit Highs as βSanta Rallyβ Countdown Begins: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/23/2025
- Prediction markets are coming to sports in a big way. Hereβs what you need to know – The Athletic β The New York Times, 12/23/2025
- Emerging markets had a bumper year β hereβs what could be in store in 2026 β CNBC, 12/23/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- I copied WSB top picks of 2025 and yeah, 77%. That is the unbeatable edge, where is this years list? β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-25
- Zelenskyy wishes Putin would ‘perish’ in Christmas Eve address β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-25
- 125% Year β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-25
- Bulgaria: 7 days until the euro – 2,000 leva gross salary becomes 1,022.59 euros β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-25
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, December 26, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-25
- Merry Christmas from the Polish border! β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-25