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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: U.S. economic strength challenges traditional forecasts amid record market highs. |
| π | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 13.47, -3.79%) |
| β° | Key Event: BoJ Summary of Opinions at 12:00 JST |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Fed chair candidate Hassett says U.S. is way behind the curve on lowering interest rates
Central-bank commentary and rate-path deliberations that could influence policy and global yields. -
10-year Treasury yield moves lower as investors mull rates path following strong GDP data
Fed and Treasury-rate headlines tying stronger GDP data to shifting rate expectations and political pressure on policy. -
BOJ debated need to keep raising rates, October meeting minutes show
Headlines focused on policy-rate deliberations and mortgage-rate movements that directly affect borrowing costs and yield expectations.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The headline: U.S. GDP unexpectedly strong β a 4.3% Q3 print β pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to closing records even as precious metals briefly hit highs. That combination signals a market reconciling stronger growth with still-comfortable financial conditions: equities price better earnings outlooks while bond markets and safe-haven flows remain muted. Expect today to test whether equities can hold gains without a sustained rise in yields.
The Setup
Risk readings are subdued. VIX sits at 13.47, down 3.8% on the day and at its session low, signaling low realized volatility. US 10-year yields eased to 4.13 (-0.96%), German 10s are 2.86, and EUR/USD is steady at 1.18. Euroibor 3M at 2.0 is near its low. The notable divergence is clear: equities at records alongside falling or stable core yields and a very low VIX β a complacency signal that could amplify directional moves if one leg breaks.
Today’s Watch
Key data: China Industrial Profits (01:30 GMT) forecast +2.2% (prev 1.9%) β an upside would support cyclicals and commodities; BoJ Summary of Opinions (23:50) may hint at intra-meeting debate but is unlikely to alter policy immediately. CFTC speculative position releases (20:30) will refresh FX positioning across EUR, GBP, AUD, BRL, CHF, NZD. Focus for the session: whether yields reprice higher on growth momentum or equities must unwind if bond markets start to catch up.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. β +25.5%
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK β +15.62%
- Travere Therapeutics, Inc. β +13.91%
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK β +13.55%
- UiPath, Inc. β +7.52%
- Almonty Industries Inc. β +6.79%
- Zai Lab Limited β +6.29%
- Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V β +6.07%
π Top Losers
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. β -8.89%
- Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat β -8.03%
- D-Wave Quantum Inc. β -5.49%
- Beta Technologies, Inc. β -4.74%
- Perpetua Resources Corp. β -4.04%
- Fermi Inc. β -4.0%
- IonQ, Inc. β -3.06%
- On Holding AG β -2.92%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 13.47 | -3.79% | -23.55% | 13.47β17.62 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.0% | -1.96% | -3.85% | 2.0β2.1 | π Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.13% | -0.96% | -0.72% | 4.12β4.19 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | 0.0% | -0.35% | 2.85β2.9 | π Offered |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank commentary and rate-path deliberations that could influence policy and global yields.
- Fed chair candidate Hassett says U.S. is way behind the curve on lowering interest rates β CNBC, 12/23/2025
- South Korea c.bank to assess incoming data to decide whether and when to lower rates β Reuters, 12/25/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed and Treasury-rate headlines tying stronger GDP data to shifting rate expectations and political pressure on policy.
- 10-year Treasury yield moves lower as investors mull rates path following strong GDP data β CNBC, 12/24/2025
- Opinion: Why Jerome Powell was right all along about interest rates, inflation and the economy β MarketWatch, 12/23/2025
- Fed Should Lower Rates If the Market Does Well, Trump Says β Bloomberg.com, 12/23/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Headlines focused on policy-rate deliberations and mortgage-rate movements that directly affect borrowing costs and yield expectations.
- BOJ debated need to keep raising rates, October meeting minutes show β Reuters, 12/24/2025
- US mortgage rates fall for second consecutive week β Investing.com, 12/24/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Reports and analysis on U.S. growth, consumer-driven strength and uneven economic outcomes for Americans.
- U.S. economy grows by 4.3% in third quarter, much more than expected, delayed report shows β CNBC, 12/23/2025
- The U.S. Economy Keeps Powering Ahead, Defying Dire Predictions β The Wall Street Journal, 12/24/2025
- US economy grows at fastest pace in two years β BBC, 12/23/2025
- Consumers Power Strongest U.S. Economic Growth in Two Years β The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2025
- The Economy Avoided a Recession in 2025, but Many Americans Are Reeling β The New York Times, 12/22/2025
- βThis Is Something That Traditional Economics Isnβt Prepared to Deal Withβ β The New York Times, 12/23/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
GDP prints, wage dynamics and commentary indicating faster growth and distributional divergence across the economy.
- GDP report is a much-needed vote of confidence for the economy β Axios, 12/24/2025
- Rubleβs World-Beating Rally Poses New Risk for Russian Economy β Bloomberg.com, 12/24/2025
- βThe gap is wideningβ: inside Donald Trumpβs K-shaped economy β Financial Times, 12/24/2025
- The Economy Is Heating Up. Why the Experts Keep Getting It Wrong. β Barron’s, 12/24/2025
- U.S. GDP Grew 4.3%, Surging in Third Quarter of 2025 β The New York Times, 12/23/2025
- Russiaβs wage growth slows as wartime economy cools β Financial Times, 12/23/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- U.S. economy is headed toward stagflation, followed by reacceleration, economist says β MarketWatch, 12/24/2025
- U.S. economy posted biggest growth spurt in two years, GDP shows. Donβt expect a repeat. β MarketWatch, 12/23/2025
- Chinaβs Sprint for Tech Dominance Canβt Hide an Economy Full of Holes β The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2025
- S&P 500, Dow hit all-time closing highs; gold, silver touch records β Reuters, 12/24/2025
- Economy grows, chip tariff delay, new S&P 500 record and more in Morning Squawk β CNBC, 12/24/2025
- Gold, silver and platinum take a breather after record rally β Reuters, 12/24/2025
- Stocks Rise to Record, Precious Metals Advance: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/24/2025
- Taiwan’s Foxtron launches Bria EV model, eyes overseas markets β Reuters, 12/25/2025
- The Photos That Defined Business and the Economy in 2025 β The New York Times, 12/24/2025
- Prediction markets are booming. How to tax winnings is anyone’s guess β CNBC, 12/23/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Norwegian Christmas tradition. The czechian/East german movie. Drei HaselnΓΌsse fΓΌr AschenbrΓΆdel. If it doesn’t air at 11:00 24. December there will be riots. β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-24
- Zelensky reveals full 20-point peace plan draft backed by Ukraine, US β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-24
- All I Want for Christmas is EU β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-24
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 24, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-24
- Moscow explosion kills 2 Russian police officers tied to Ukrainian POW abuse, intelligence source says β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-24
- On this day, 111 years ago, during World War I, enemy soldiers laid down their weapons, shared food and songs, and reminded the world of our shared humanity – the Christmas Truce of 1914. β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-24
- EU warns of possible action after the US bars 5 Europeans accused of censorship β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-24
- How did WSB’s stock picks of 2025 perform? β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-24