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DeepCap Week Ahead Outlook
The Week at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: Capital flows and central-bank divergence set market tone amid stubborn yields |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.08, -5.57%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: Stock Investment by Foreigners report (this week) |
| 🔥 | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch → |
Key Headlines
-
China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged for seventh straight month
Central-bank decisions and rate-path commentary in major economies that shape global yields and policy expectations. -
Exclusive | Fed’s Hammack Is Inflation-Wary and Prefers Holding Rates Steady Into the Spring
Policy commentary and central-bank guidance shaping rate expectations and market pricing. -
Watch BofA CEO Moynihan Sees AI Driving Strong Economy in 2026
Headlines linking market moves and economic outlook to AI optimism or positioning.
The Week Ahead
The Weekend Signal
China held benchmark lending rates steady for a seventh month despite weak data — the clearest signal from the weekend. That restraint from Beijing removes an easy policy offset to slowing growth, which tightens the global demand backdrop for commodities and exposes emerging markets to weaker external demand. With US 10‑year yields still elevated at 4.17%, the combination of constrained Chinese stimulus and persistently high developed‑market yields tightens global financial conditions even as equity volatility sits near a 52‑week low.
The Macro Setup
The risk picture is a study in divergence: VIX at 14.08 is subdued, implying low equity hedging, while US 10‑year yields at 4.17 and Germany’s 10‑year at 2.90 remain elevated, signalling policy‑rate tension. EURIBOR 3M at 2.0 looks depressed versus sovereign yields, and EUR/USD sits at 1.17 in neutral territory. Put bluntly, markets are calm but rates are not; that calm could be tested if growth surprises or Chinese policy disappoints further.
The Calendar
Key prints cluster midweek: Wednesday has a US 8‑week bill auction at 16:30, followed at 17:00 by mortgage‑rate updates (30‑ and 15‑year) and the EIA natural‑gas stocks change — the latter two potential movers for housing and energy names if they diverge from recent trends. Baker Hughes rig count posts at 18:00, a direct near‑term swing factor for oil. Late Wednesday (23:50) Japan reports foreign stock and bond investment flows — data that could accentuate JPY and Asian FX moves after China’s rate pause. Expectations are muted for the auction and Japanese flow reports; surprises in EIA inventories, mortgage rates or rig counts would have immediate cross‑asset effects. Major corporate earnings are absent this week.
Key Events This Week
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 12/31 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 🔸 Med |
| Wed 12/31 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 🔸 Med |
| Wed 12/31 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 🔸 Med |
| Wed 12/31 | US | Chicago PMI | 🔸 Med |
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.08 | -5.57% | -14.67% | 14.08–17.62 | 📉 Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.0% | -1.96% | -3.85% | 2.0–2.1 | 📉 Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.17% | +0.72% | -0.24% | 4.07–4.19 | 📈 Bid |
| DE 10Y | 2.9% | 0.0% | +1.4% | 2.75–2.9 | 📈 Bid |
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📰 Weekend Headlines Recap (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank decisions and rate-path commentary in major economies that shape global yields and policy expectations.
- China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged for seventh straight month — Reuters, 12/22/2025
- BOJ to raise interest rates to 1.5% under Ueda, ex-c.bank policymaker says — Reuters, 12/22/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy commentary and central-bank guidance shaping rate expectations and market pricing.
- Exclusive | Fed’s Hammack Is Inflation-Wary and Prefers Holding Rates Steady Into the Spring — The Wall Street Journal, 12/21/2025
- BoE alternative scenarios failing to bring clarity to rates policy, economists warn — Financial Times, 12/22/2025
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Headlines linking market moves and economic outlook to AI optimism or positioning.
- Watch BofA CEO Moynihan Sees AI Driving Strong Economy in 2026 — Bloomberg.com, 12/22/2025
- S&P 500 posts third-straight winning day, buoyed by AI trade: Live updates — CNBC, 12/22/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Economic-readings and consumer/sovereign growth updates that speak to near-term demand and political context.
- The Economy Survived 2025, But Many Americans Are Reeling — The New York Times, 12/22/2025
- GDP looks strong despite a turbulent year. Can the U.S. economy keep it up? — MarketWatch, 12/22/2025
- UK consumers feel the pinch from tax increases as economy slows — Reuters, 12/22/2025
- Argentina’s Economy Grew Less Than Expected Before Midterms — Bloomberg.com, 12/22/2025
- Japan’s economy is normalizing, says Neuberger’s Okamura — CNBC, 12/22/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Consumer sentiment, labour-market signals and analysis about whether policy tools address growth.
- Watch Households Have ‘Real Reasons’ to Feel Bad About Economy, Says Elizabeth Renter — Bloomberg.com, 12/22/2025
- IEI: Fed Tools May Not Address Growth And Labour Markets — Seeking Alpha, 12/22/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Stocks Climb With Commodities as Gold Hits Record: Markets Wrap — Bloomberg.com, 12/22/2025
- Emerging Markets Bring Optimism for 2026 After Stellar Year — Bloomberg.com, 12/22/2025
- Bond Markets Clear Path for Stock Rally by Ignoring a Near-Term Risk — Barron’s, 12/22/2025
- Stock Market Today: Dow Up 250 Points; Gold, Silver Prices Rally — Live Updates — The Wall Street Journal, 12/22/2025
- U.S. Markets Closed Up Monday; AST SpaceMobile Climbed Highest — Barron’s, 12/22/2025
- Markets Are Wary After AI, Tariff, Rate Fears. A Santa Rally Is in the Balance and 4 More Things to Know Today. — Barron’s, 12/22/2025
- Market upheavals drive biggest gains since 2008 for macro hedge funds — Financial Times, 12/21/2025
- Many Americans don’t share Trump’s rosy economic vision: poll — Axios, 12/22/2025
- Coinbase doubles down on prediction markets with deal for The Clearing Company — Reuters, 12/22/2025
- FanDuel Launches Latest Prediction Markets App, Chasing Rivals — Bloomberg.com, 12/22/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Poland says Ukrainian refugees contribute more than they cost — reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-22
- Trump names Louisiana governor as Greenland special envoy, prompting Danish alarm — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-22
- Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, officials say — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-22
- Weekend Discussion Thread for the Weekend of December 19, 2025 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-19
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 22, 2025 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-22
- US is ‘demolishing its scientific leadership with a wrecking ball,’ says chief EU research diplomat — reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-22
- My 41k Savings gone — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-21
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, December 22, 2025 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-21