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DeepCap Friday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market reacts to Bank of Japan’s rate hike amid mixed earnings results. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 16.18, -4.09%) |
| β° | Key Event: Interest Rate Decision at 2:00 PM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates to Highest Level in 30 Years
Major central bank moves and their market spillovers β a cluster of BOJ tightening, related FX and bond moves, plus other central-bank guidance from Europe and the UK. -
Bank of England Cuts Rates While ECB Holds Steady
Central-bank decisions and rate-sensitive consumer/yield headlines driving market and policy expectations. -
Bank of France Lifts Growth Forecasts as Economy Defies Upheaval
Central-bank decisions and interest-rate developments, plus deposit-rate moves, are shaping policy expectations and household finance.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The Bank of Japan’s surprise rate hike to a 30-year high dominated the tinvestor and pushed 10-year JGB yields through 2%, signaling a regime shift in global rate policy. Expect spillovers into core rates and FX today: higher Japanese yields widen global yield differentials, lift German yields (DE10Y 2.87, +0.7%) and keep upward pressure on US yields (US10Y 4.14, +0.49%), all of which reshinvestor carry and equity risk premia.
The Setup
Risk indicators show a mixed picture: volatility eased intraday (VIX 16.18, -4.09%) even as weekly risk is higher, EURUSD sits flat at 1.17, and short-term euro funding eased slightly (EURIBOR 3M 2.05, -0.49%). The notable divergence is rising core yields alongside pockets of risk appetite in individual equities β Trump Media rallied sharply (up to 66.38%), Rivian and Micron rallied while several small- and mid-cap names plunged β suggesting idiosyncratic retail flows amid a tightening macro backdrop.
Today’s Watch
Key items: Chinaβs Loan Prime Rates at 01:15 (1Y forecast 3.00, 5Y 3.50) and a Prime Rate release at 13:15; a Macau holiday may mute regional liquidity. Late in the day, the CFTC speculative position reports hit at 20:30 (previous crude net 55, GBP -93.2, CHF -35.4). Markets expect steady Chinese LPRs; any tweak would alter Asia risk sentiment and commodity/FX positioning revealed in the CFTC prints. Focus: whether BOJ follow-through sustains the global rise in yields and how positioning shifts in CFTC data amplify moves in oil, FX and rate markets.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Trump Media & Technology Group β +66.38%
- Trump Media & Technology Group β +41.93%
- Rivian Automotive, Inc. β +15.03%
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β +12.55%
- Rocket Lab Corporation β +11.05%
- Micron Technology, Inc. β +10.12%
- Heartflow, Inc. β +8.98%
- TTM Technologies, Inc. β +8.95%
π Top Losers
- Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. β -19.45%
- Insmed Incorporated β -16.08%
- Birkenstock Holding plc β -11.34%
- ABM Industries Incorporated β -9.91%
- Fermi Inc. β -9.27%
- Chagee Holdings Limited β -9.06%
- FactSet Research Systems Inc. β -7.68%
- Establishment Labs Holdings Inc β -6.85%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- December 19 β ECB Lane Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.18 | -4.09% | +2.8% | 14.85β17.62 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.05% | -0.49% | -1.44% | 2.03β2.1 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.14% | +0.49% | -0.96% | 4.07β4.19 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.87% | +0.7% | +0.35% | 2.75β2.87 | π Bid |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Major central bank moves and their market spillovers β a cluster of BOJ tightening, related FX and bond moves, plus other central-bank guidance from Europe and the UK.
- Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates to Highest Level in 30 Years β The New York Times, 12/19/2025
- Japan Signals It Isnβt Done After Raising Rates to 30-Year High β Bloomberg.com, 12/19/2025
- Investors react to BOJ’s decision to hike rates β Reuters, 12/19/2025
- Japan bond yields jump after BOJ hike, Wall Street poised for gains β Reuters, 12/19/2025
- Yen falls after BOJ raises rates, stays vague on tightening path β Reuters, 12/19/2025
- Yen struggles to exit ‘danger zone’ even as Japan hikes rates β Reuters, 12/19/2025
- The Bank of Japan Raised Rates. Hereβs Why You Should Care. β The Wall Street Journal, 12/19/2025
- Bank of England cuts rates after tight vote but signals caution over further moves β Reuters, 12/18/2025
- ECB upgrades growth outlook, closing door to more cuts β Reuters, 12/18/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank decisions and rate-sensitive consumer/yield headlines driving market and policy expectations.
- Bank of England Cuts Rates While ECB Holds Steady β The Wall Street Journal, 12/18/2025
- Bank of Japan Hikes Benchmark Rate to Highest Level Since 1995 β Bloomberg.com, 12/19/2025
- Japan stocks and bond yields jump after central bank hikes policy rate to highest in decades β CNBC, 12/18/2025
- German Economy to βStrengthen Markedlyβ in 2026, Bundesbank Says β Bloomberg.com, 12/19/2025
- Today’s High-Yield Savings Rates for December 19, 2025: Up to 5.00% β The Wall Street Journal, 12/19/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank decisions and interest-rate developments, plus deposit-rate moves, are shaping policy expectations and household finance.
- Bank of France Lifts Growth Forecasts as Economy Defies Upheaval β Bloomberg.com, 12/19/2025
- Todayβs CD Rates for December 19, 2025: Highest APYs Range From 4.11% to 4.78% β The Wall Street Journal, 12/19/2025
- Bank of Japan is poised to raise rates to a 30-year high despite economic weakness β CNBC, 12/18/2025
- Bank of England cuts interest rates to 3.75% – the lowest level since early 2023 β BBC, 12/18/2025
- Finalists for top Fed job want to cut rates, but diverge from there β Reuters, 12/18/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Headlines focused on interest-rate outcomes and the mortgage/interest-rate implications for savers and borrowers.
- Morning Bid: Japan’s savers get to party like it’s 1999 β Reuters, 12/19/2025
- Lenders set to lower UK mortgage rates in early 2026 β Financial Times, 12/18/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Bigger-picture assessments about global economic prospects and uncertainty that shape risk appetite.
- βA Singularly Turbulent Timeβ: Deeper Uncertainty in Store for Global Economy β The New York Times, 12/19/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Swedenβs economy forecast to grow faster in 2025 and 2026 β Investing.com, 12/19/2025
- Russia’s Putin says cooling of economy in 2025 is a ‘conscious’ decision β Reuters, 12/19/2025
- UK retail sales drop unexpectedly as economy struggles β Financial Times, 12/19/2025
- When Did Everything Become βK-Shapedβ? β The New York Times, 12/19/2025
- Insurance Rates Should Fall Next Year. Hopefully Not Too Much. β The Wall Street Journal, 12/19/2025
- China set to keep rates steady for seventh month despite slowing economy By Reuters β Investing.com, 12/19/2025
- Global Markets, U.S. Futures Nudge Up on Cool U.S. Inflation β The Wall Street Journal, 12/19/2025
- Wall St closes higher fueled by tech rally, soft inflation data β Reuters, 12/19/2025
- Watch Plenty of Markets Action Left in 2025: 3-Minute MLIV β Bloomberg.com, 12/19/2025
- Asian Shares to Rise as US CPI Lifts Stocks, Bonds: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/19/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 18, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-18
- Sold a house got to a million and lost it all, now I owe the IRS 179k and I owe creditors 100k do not do options if you adhd β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-18
- Furious Putin is trapped in a gilded cage. Only death will free him β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-18
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, December 19, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-18
- Murder of Portuguese scientist in US witnessed by daughter | Authorities believe shooter was “a professional” β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-18
- Trump Media to Merge With TAE Tech in $6 Billion Deal β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-18
- Russian assets on the table at the EU Council. Tusk: “Money today or blood tomorrow, leaders must make a choice” β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-18