DeepCap Week Ahead Outlook

DeepCap Week Ahead Outlook

The Week at a Glance

🎯 Theme: High yields and weak jobs keep the rate debate alive; watch foreign flows for risk direction.
πŸ“Š Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 17.14, +3.88%)
⏰ Key Event: Foreign Bond Investment data release
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Headlines That Matter

  1. Bank of Japan to take interest rates to 30-year high
    β€” Central-bank moves and mortgage-rate action are shaping yield curves and the policy debate.
  2. Treasury yields edge lower after figures show net decline in jobs in October and November
    β€” Central-bank policy shifts and moves in Treasury yields are driving market reactions and cross-border rate outlooks.
  3. AI Investment to Keep Rising and Boost World Economy, OECD Says
    β€” AI investment and enthusiasm are reshaping sector performance and growth narratives, boosting some banks and underpinning macro forecasts.

The Week Ahead

BEAT 1: THE WEEKEND SIGNAL
The clear market signal from the weekend was the weak U.S. jobs print β€” just 64,000 payrolls and an unemployment rate at a four‑year high. That single datapoint tightens the argument that U.S. growth is cooling and reduces the upside pressure on Fed rates, a dynamic already showing up as lower U.S. 10‑year yields (4.17%, -0.24%). It matters because a durable shift in U.S. labor momentum would reprice global risk assets and carry trades: equities and duration would get relief, the dollar could soften, and commodity and emerging‑market flows would reallocate. That wind also collides with a different signal out of Japan β€” a reported push toward multi‑decade higher rates there β€” which complicates cross‑border carry and FX moves and keeps the JPY and global rate differentials an active theme.

BEAT 2: THE MACRO SETUP
The risk picture is mixed: VIX sits at 17.14 and is up 3.9%, signalling elevated caution, even as core yields have eased (US10y 4.17, DE10y 2.84 down 0.7%). EUR/USD is stronger at 1.18 (+0.85%), and EURIBOR 3M is about 2.08. That divergence β€” falling sovereign yields alongside a rising VIX β€” points to an environment where growth concerns are pulling rates down, but uncertainty about policy and geopolitics keeps risk premia elevated. Positioning is tentative rather than bullish.

BEAT 3: THE CALENDAR
Top items this week are the CFTC speculative positions release (Wednesday 20:30 US ET) and Japan’s monthly foreign stock and bond investment prints (Wednesday 23:50 JST). Markets expect routine flow and positioning updates; surprises β€” large shifts in crude, gold or copper speculative nets, or unexpected foreign bond outflows/inflows in Japan β€” would quickly move commodities, JPY and global rates. There are no major corporate earnings to reshinvestor macro momentum. Bottom line: This week is defined by whether the U.S. labor softening forces markets to materially cut rate expectations β€” or whether that signal is offset by the cross‑border shock of higher Japanese rates.

Key Events This Week

Key Events This Week

Date Region Event Forecast Previous Impact
Wed 12/24 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow None None πŸ”΄ High
Wed 12/24 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Average None None πŸ”Έ Med
Wed 12/24 US Initial Jobless Claims None None πŸ”Έ Med
Wed 12/24 US Continuing Jobless Claims None None πŸ”Έ Med
Wed 12/24 US Durable Goods Orders ex Defense None None πŸ”Ή Low
Wed 12/24 US Durable Goods Orders None None πŸ”Ή Low
Wed 12/24 US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp None None πŸ”Ή Low
Wed 12/24 US Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense None 0.1 πŸ”Ή Low
Wed 12/24 US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air None None πŸ”Ή Low
Wed 12/24 US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change None None πŸ”Ή Low
Wed 12/24 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change None None πŸ”Ή Low
Wed 12/24 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change None None πŸ”Ή Low
View Full Calendar (TradingView Widget)

Fed Speak This Week

  • Wed β€”
    Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level Ξ” d/d Ξ” w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 17.14 +3.88% +1.24% 14.85–17.24 ⚠️ Elevated
EUR/USD 1.18 +0.85% β€” β€” Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.08% -0.95% 0.0% 2.03–2.1 Neutral
US 10Y 4.17% -0.24% -0.48% 3.99–4.19 πŸ“ˆ Bid
DE 10Y 2.84% -0.7% -0.7% 2.68–2.86 πŸ“ˆ Bid

πŸ” This Week’s DeepList Spotlight

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πŸ“° Weekend Headlines Recap (6 themes)

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Central-bank moves and mortgage-rate action are shaping yield curves and the policy debate.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Central-bank policy shifts and moves in Treasury yields are driving market reactions and cross-border rate outlooks.

AI/Tech Valuation Jitters

AI investment and enthusiasm are reshaping sector performance and growth narratives, boosting some banks and underpinning macro forecasts.

Trade & Diplomacy

Political and strategic framing of U.S.-China relations that influences long-term trade and economic policy outlooks.

Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth

Labour-market updates and wage data are changing growth and policy expectations across regions.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

Market Futures

Social Media Buzz

For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.

Bottom Line

This week is defined by whether the U.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

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