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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market reacts to strong jobs data as ECB speech looms. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 17.65, -0.79%) |
| β° | Key Event: ECB Lagarde Speech at 10:00 AM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Fed to hold rates through May, but Warsh may be too loose with policy, economists say
Fed and other central-bank commentary and policy reads driven by strong jobs data and inflation risks shaping the rate path. -
Data is poised to give Chair Walsh bounds to cut rates twice, says Fed’s Richard Clarida
Headlines focused on the Fed, rate outlook and potential policy moves. -
Markets sense opportunity as erratic US spurs ‘middle powers’ into action
Shifts in geopolitical dynamics as other powers respond to an erratic US, with market implications for trade and alliances.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The market moved most on the US jobs beat β January added 130,000 hires and a lower unemployment rate β which reinforced the case for a Fed rate pause and pushed Treasuries down as stocks wavered. That dynamic leaves todayβs session geared toward whether the still-higher-for-longer rates narrative holds and how risk assets digest follow-through in yields and earnings choppiness.
The Setup
Risk is subdued but bifurcated: VIX sits at 17.65, signaling low near-term volatility, while the US 10-year yield is steady at 4.18 and Germanyβs 10-year slipped to 2.8 (-0.36%), tightening core/periphery dynamics. EURUSD is flat at 1.19 and EURIBOR 3M is depressed at 1.98, leaving carry differentials intact. Watch the divergence between calm option-implied volatility and still-elevated nominal yields, plus single-stock swings after heavy movers yesterday (Teradata +29.6%, Unity -26.3%).
Today’s Watch
Asian data dominate early: Chinaβs January credit suite and loan figures at 09:00 (new loans, outstanding loan growth, M2, total social financing) and the Q4 current account at 09:50 β forecasts imply a big credit impulse versus prior prints and a weaker M2. Romania GDP posts at 07:00; Colombia imports at 15:00. ECB President Lagarde speaks at 16:30 β markets expect a steady stance but any hint on balance-sheet or forward guidance would move bunds and the euro. Focus: whether Chinaβs credit reads revive risk sentiment and whether Lagardeβs tone moves rate forwards and core yields.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Teradata Corporation β +29.59%
- Diodes Incorporated β +26.42%
- Vertiv Holdings, LLC β +24.49%
- SOLV Energy, Inc. Class A Common Stock β +22.68%
- BorgWarner Inc. β +22.45%
- Generac Holdlings Inc. β +17.93%
- Solstice Advanced Materials Inc β +17.36%
- Hinge Health, Inc. β +17.28%
π Top Losers
- Unity Software Inc. β -26.32%
- Mattel, Inc. β -24.98%
- Astera Labs, Inc. β -21.41%
- Centrus Energy Corp. β -20.69%
- Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. β -17.82%
- Zillow Group, Inc. β -17.13%
- Lyft, Inc. β -16.97%
- Zillow Group, Inc. β -16.54%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02/13 | US | CPI s.a | π΄ High |
| Fri 02/13 | US | CPI | π΄ High |
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- February 14 β ECB Lagarde Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.65 | -0.79% | -5.31% | 16.15β21.77 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.19 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 1.98% | -1.0% | -1.98% | 1.98β2.04 | π Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.18% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.15β4.28 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.8% | -0.36% | -2.1% | 2.8β2.89 | π Offered |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Fed and other central-bank commentary and policy reads driven by strong jobs data and inflation risks shaping the rate path.
- Fed to hold rates through May, but Warsh may be too loose with policy, economists say β Reuters, 02/11/2026
- Fedβs Miran Says Rate Cuts Still Possible Following Strong Jobs Report β The Wall Street Journal, 02/11/2026
- Fed’s interest rate pause bolstered by jobs data, but concerns linger β Reuters, 02/11/2026
- Lower Unemployment Rate Supports Longer Pause for Fed β The New York Times, 02/11/2026
- Australia’s central bank will raise rates again if inflation becomes entrenched, governor says β Reuters, 02/11/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Headlines focused on the Fed, rate outlook and potential policy moves.
- Data is poised to give Chair Walsh bounds to cut rates twice, says Fed’s Richard Clarida β CNBC, 02/12/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Shifts in geopolitical dynamics as other powers respond to an erratic US, with market implications for trade and alliances.
- Markets sense opportunity as erratic US spurs ‘middle powers’ into action β Reuters, 02/12/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Coverage of trade policy and the impact of tariffs on cross-border activity and supply chains.
- A year into Trump tariffs, Chinese factories and ports are buzzing with activity β CNBC, 02/12/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Fresh payroll and consumption data showing stronger-than-expected hiring alongside mixed consumer spending implications for growth.
- Jobs Report Live Updates: U.S. Hiring Starts the Year at a Strong Pace β The New York Times, 02/12/2026
- US economy far outstrips expectations to add 130,000 jobs in January β Financial Times, 02/11/2026
- Worried About a Stock Selloff? The Economy Isnβt. β Barron’s, 02/11/2026
- US consumer spending slowed in December – Is it a warning for the economy? β BBC, 02/10/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- What Executives Are Saying About the βK-Shapedβ Economy β The New York Times, 02/11/2026
- Brazilβs economy is being throttled by entrenched interests β The Economist, 02/11/2026
- U.S. economy adds stronger-than-expected 130,000 jobs in January β Axios, 02/11/2026
- Asia markets mostly rise as investors shrug off weak U.S. retail sales, assess China inflation β CNBC, 02/11/2026
- Treasuries Dip, Stocks Waver After US Jobs Surge: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg, 02/12/2026
- European markets set to open higher as investors await more earnings reports β CNBC, 02/12/2026
- Hong Kong Investors Seek Help of Mysterious Forces to Navigate Wild Markets β Bloomberg, 02/12/2026
- S&P 500 Is Set for Record as Solid Jobs Sink Bonds: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg, 02/11/2026
- CNBC Daily Open: Better-than-expected U.S. jobs report and AI fears spook markets β CNBC, 02/12/2026
- Prediction markets head into basketball season on a high from Super Bowl β CNBC, 02/11/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- France sends letters to 29-year-olds telling them to get on with having children β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-11
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 11, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-11
- A drawing that needs no caption β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-11
- Nearly half of Europeans would back banning Musk’s X if it keeps breaking EU law, new poll finds β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-11
- US Added 130,000 Jobs in January, Beating Projections β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-11
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 12, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-11
- OrbΓ‘n says EU and Ukraine have “declared war” on Hungary β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-11
- Ukraine support after 4 years of war β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-11