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DeepCap Tuesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: Market reacts to economic signals as volatility eases. |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 17.36, -14.78%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: ECB Lagarde Speech at 9:00 AM |
| 🔥 | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch → |
Key Headlines
-
Treasuries, Dollar Dip as China Flags US Bond Risk: Markets Wrap
Headlines focused on bond markets, central-bank rate moves and government debt that influence yields and currency flows. -
Brazil Tapping Global Debt Markets After Busiest Year in Decades
Policy and sovereign funding moves and commentary tied to central-bank strategy and rate expectations. -
US software stocks tumble sparks concerns that AI trade is reshaping markets
Stories highlighting equity volatility tied to AI-related positioning and software/tech stock weakness.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The market moved on a dip in US Treasury yields and a softer dollar after reports that China flagged risks around US bond holdings, a development that pushed VIX down to 17.36 (-14.78%) and sent EUR/USD to 1.19 (+0.85%). That dynamic signaled a risk-friendly tone into today: equities can extend gains if China’s signals are interpreted as prompting easier global funding, while lower US yields relieve pressure on high-growth assets and EM balance sheets.
The Setup
Risk looks subdued: US 10-year yields fell to 4.19 (-0.48%) while Germany’s 10-year sits at 2.84 (flat), preserving a wide spread that keeps dollar-sensitive flows in focus. Short-term euro-area rates remain muted—EURIBOR 3M at 2.0 (-0.99%)—even as FX has weakened versus the euro. The divergence between falling sovereign yields and a still-low VIX suggests sentiment is fragile: a continued easing in yields supports risk assets, but briefing-driven moves out of Treasuries or hawkish European signals would reprice that trade quickly.
Today’s Watch
China’s liquidity and flow prints dominate the morning: M2 (09:00, forecast 8.2% vs 8.5%), Total Social Financing (09:00, forecast 7,500 vs 2,210), New Yuan Loans (09:00, forecast 4,800 vs 910) and the current account (09:50, forecast 210 vs 198.7). Markets expect larger credit injections; readings that undershoot those forecasts would revive dollar demand and lift US yields. In the afternoon, ECB President Lagarde speaks at 16:30 — a hawkish tilt would steepen European curves and tighten conditions. Focus the session on China’s credit prints and Lagarde’s tone: they will determine whether yesterday’s yield and FX moves persist or reverse.
Market Movers
📈 Top Gainers
- Valaris Limited — +34.31%
- Bullish — +16.76%
- TeraWulf Inc. — +16.52%
- ImmunityBio, Inc. — +14.55%
- Ubiquiti Inc. — +14.47%
- Cipher Mining Inc. — +13.78%
- Applovin Corporation — +13.19%
- Varonis Systems, Inc. — +13.07%
📉 Top Losers
- Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. — -54.92%
- monday.com Ltd. — -20.79%
- Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. — -16.43%
- Hims & Hers Health, Inc. — -16.03%
- Liberty Global Ltd. — -14.66%
- Waters Corporation — -13.94%
- Goosehead Insurance, Inc. — -13.18%
- Willis Towers Watson Public Lim — -12.1%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02/13 | US | CPI s.a | 🔴 High |
| Fri 02/13 | US | CPI | 🔴 High |
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- February 14 — ECB Lagarde Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.36 | -14.78% | +6.24% | 15.64–21.77 | 📉 Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.19 | +0.85% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.0% | -0.99% | -1.48% | 2.0–2.04 | 📉 Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.19% | -0.48% | -1.87% | 4.18–4.28 | 📉 Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.84% | 0.0% | -1.05% | 2.84–2.91 | 📉 Offered |
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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Headlines focused on bond markets, central-bank rate moves and government debt that influence yields and currency flows.
- Treasuries, Dollar Dip as China Flags US Bond Risk: Markets Wrap — bloomberg.com, 02/09/2026
- Japan Says Yes to More Debt. Global Markets Will Feel the Effects. — Barron’s, 02/09/2026
- Australia’s Consumer Sentiment Declines After RBA Raises Rates — bloomberg.com, 02/10/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy and sovereign funding moves and commentary tied to central-bank strategy and rate expectations.
- Brazil Tapping Global Debt Markets After Busiest Year in Decades — bloomberg.com, 02/09/2026
- Trump Says Fed Pick Warsh Can Get Economy to Hit 15% Growth — bloomberg.com, 02/10/2026
- Egypt forecast to lower interest rates by 100 basis points on Thursday: Reuters poll — Reuters, 02/09/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Stories highlighting equity volatility tied to AI-related positioning and software/tech stock weakness.
- US software stocks tumble sparks concerns that AI trade is reshaping markets — Reuters, 02/09/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Narratives and interviews centered on the expanding AI economy and its market implications.
- Under the hood of the AI economy with Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi — CNBC, 02/09/2026
- Opinion | It’s the A.I. Economy, Stupid — The New York Times, 02/08/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Pieces examining economic demand, labor and growth indicators that signal broader cyclical trends.
- Immigration Raids in South Texas Are Starting to Hit the Economy – WSJ — The Wall Street Journal, 02/09/2026
- What fast food’s downturn says about the US economy — Financial Times, 02/10/2026
- The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor — The Wall Street Journal, 02/10/2026
- Malaysia economy likely grew at fastest pace in over a year in Q4 – Reuters poll — Reuters, 02/10/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 nears record 58,000 level as Asian stock markets mostly rise — CNBC, 02/09/2026
- Stock Market News, Feb 9, 2026: Nasdaq Rises; Japanese Stocks Jump After Election — The Wall Street Journal, 02/10/2026
- Argentine markets swayed by politics and new fiscal regularization scheme — Reuters, 02/09/2026
- Asian Stocks Set to Extend Rally to Another Record: Markets Wrap — bloomberg.com, 02/10/2026
- Japan election: Can Sanae Takaichi fix the economy? — BBC, 02/09/2026
- Memory Chip Squeeze Wreaks Havoc in Markets, With More to Come — bloomberg.com, 02/10/2026
- Trump administration equity stakes pose risks to U.S. companies and markets — CNBC, 02/07/2026
- Carlyle’s Currie Says Oil, Metals Markets Are ‘Underinvested’ — bloomberg.com, 02/09/2026
- Apollo Looks to New Markets After Strong Quarter — The Wall Street Journal, 02/09/2026
- Robinhood Earnings: Prediction Markets, Crypto Revenue in the Spotlight — Barron’s, 02/09/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Olympics crowd showed ‘European pride’ by booing JD Vance, EU top diplomat says — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-09
- Mayor of London: My ultimate goal is to reverse Brexit — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-09
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 09, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-09
- Irish man with valid US work permit held in ICE detention for five months — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-09
- The final bell 😭 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-09
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 10, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-09
- European alternatives to Visa and Mastercard ‘urgently’ needed, says banking chief — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-09