DeepCap Week Ahead Outlook

PPI inflation print will test yields amid Japan political-driven yen volatility

DeepCap Week Ahead Outlook

The Week at a Glance

🎯 Theme: PPI inflation print will test yields amid Japan political-driven yen volatility
📊 Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 20.37, -6.43%)
⏰ Key Event: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) release
🔥 DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch →

Key Headlines

  1. UK Government Bonds Fall as Pressure on Starmer Rattles Markets
    Government bond moves linked to political pressure and yield dynamics.
  2. Danish central banker sees economy riding out turbulent start to year By Reuters
    Central bank commentary on the economic outlook that can influence policy and rate expectations.
  3. Opinion | It’s the A.I. Economy, Stupid
    Opinion and analysis on the broader AI-driven economy and valuation strains in private/public markets.

The Week Ahead

The Weekend Signal
Japan’s landslide victory for Takaichi is the dominant market signal from the weekend. The political clarity shifts expectations toward a longer period of pro-growth, market-friendly policy and toleration of a weaker yen; that outlook already triggered yen swings and a bid into Japanese equities over regional peers. This matters for the week ahead because Tuesday’s Japan trade and balance-of-trade prints (forecast -2,500 vs prior 105.7) can either validate the narrative—pushing FX-driven carry and Asian flows—or force a reprice if exports disappoint, with knock-on effects for JGBs, global FX carry trades and commodity-linked Asian demand.

The Macro Setup
Risk sits in a cautious, event-driven phase: VIX at 20.37 remains elevated despite a daily drop (-6.4%), reflecting higher week-on-week volatility; US 10-year yields sit near 4.23 (small intraday rise), Germany 10-year at 2.86, and EUR/USD steady at 1.18. Short-term money in Europe looks soft—3M Euribor at 2.0—while yields have edged lower on the week even as volatility rose, a divergence that suggests political and regional shocks are driving equity and FX turbulence more than a broad inflation repricing.

The Calendar
Key items concentrate on Tuesday: Japan’s Jan trade, exports and imports are due Feb 17 at 23:50 — a forecasted swing to a large deficit from a prior surplus that could cement yen pressure; New Zealand Q4 PPI (21:45) may nudge RBNZ expectations if margins show fresh softness; Fed Governor Daly speaks at 19:30 and a heavy slate of US bill auctions (3‑, 6‑, 52‑week at 16:30) could influence the short end and funding dynamics. Watch for surprises to be directional: a worse-than-forecast Japan balance or hawkish Daly remarks would lift volatility and push short-term yields, while soft US bill demand could dampen front-end rates. Berkshire Hathaway reports before the open on Feb 23, a cap-weighted event with potential to ripple through financials.

Key Events This Week

Date Region Event Impact
Tue 02/17 CA CPI 🔴 High
Tue 02/17 UK Unemployment Rate 🔸 Med
Tue 02/17 US Retail Sales 🔸 Med
Tue 02/17 US Retail Sales 🔸 Med
Tue 02/17 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos 🔸 Med
Tue 02/17 US Retail Sales Ex Autos 🔸 Med
View Full Calendar

Fed Speak This Week

  • February 17 — Fed Daly Speech (Neutral)

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level Δ d/d Δ w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 20.37 -6.43% +16.8% 15.64–21.77 ⚠️ Elevated
EUR/USD 1.18 0.0% — — Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.0% -0.99% -1.48% 2.0–2.04 📉 Easing
US 10Y 4.23% +0.24% -1.17% 4.18–4.28 Neutral
DE 10Y 2.86% +0.7% -0.35% 2.84–2.91 Neutral

🔐 This Week’s DeepList Spotlight

Premium members:

6 earnings + 10 fresh headlines
on DeepCap positioned names.
Jump to DeepList Watch →

Premium

*Premium* — Key Levels to Watch

*Premium* — EU DeepList Watch

*Premium* — US DeepList Watch

*Premium* — Risk Scenarios


📰 Weekend Headlines Recap (6 themes)

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Government bond moves linked to political pressure and yield dynamics.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Central bank commentary on the economic outlook that can influence policy and rate expectations.

AI/Tech Valuation Jitters

Opinion and analysis on the broader AI-driven economy and valuation strains in private/public markets.

Trade & Diplomacy

Geopolitical talks and regional diplomacy are moving local markets and sentiment across the Gulf and beyond.

Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth

Country-level GDP and deep-dive explainers highlighting growth trajectories and collapses.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

Earnings Preview

  • 2026-02-23 — ()

Market Futures

Social Media Buzz

For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

Related Posts