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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market reacts to mixed signals on interest rates and housing data. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 18.64, +3.56%) |
| β° | Key Event: CPI release at 8:30 AM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Bank of England expected to hold interest rates
Central-bank decisions, rate-path commentary and mortgage-rate exposure shaping markets and FX. -
Bank of England set to hold rates pending clearer picture on inflation
Central-bank commentary and policy moves shaping the rate outlook and housing/mortgage dynamics. -
What You Need to Know About the AI Models Rattling Markets
Coverage of AI models and their market impact amid valuation concerns and volatility.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Earnings shocks in tech set the tone: AMD’s steep miss helped drive a Nasdaq pullback and a sharp split between headline losers and isolated winners in semiconductors and solar. That dispersion signals a risk-on/risk-off tug for today β expect stock-specific volatility to spill into implied vol and bond flows as investors reprice growth and inflation sensitivity across assets.
The Setup
Volatility nudged higher with the VIX at 18.64 (up 3.56% on the day, up 14.01% week-on-week), while benchmark yields eased modestly: the US 10βyear at 4.27% (down 0.23%) and the German 10βyear at 2.86% (down 1.04%). EURUSD sits at 1.18, unchanged. The notable divergence: big single-stock moves amid only a mild rise in systemic risk measures β dispersion rather than uniform risk-off β and short-term rates in Europe (EURIBOR 3M at 2.03) remain near their recent range.
Today’s Watch
Key prints arrive early and late: UK House Price Index at 07:00 (forecast 0.4% vs prior -0.6%), China foreign exchange reserves at 08:00 (forecast 3.36 vs prior 3.358), CFTC speculative position updates at 20:30, and Colombia CPI late at 23:00 (CPI forecast 5.35% vs prior 5.1%). Upside surprises in UK HPI or Colombia CPI would change rate and FX orientations; a material move lower in China reserves would sap risk appetite. Focus the session on whether earnings-led dispersion widens into a broader vol and yield repricing, or stays confined to individual names.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Silicon Laboratories, Inc. β +48.89%
- Enphase Energy, Inc. β +38.6%
- Powell Industries, Inc. β +16.34%
- Columbia Sportswear Company β +14.44%
- Super Micro Computer, Inc. β +13.79%
- SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. β +13.14%
- Sunrun Inc. β +12.24%
- Carlisle Companies Incorporated β +11.11%
π Top Losers
- Mercury Systems Inc β -22.32%
- Lumen Technologies, Inc. β -21.63%
- Boston Scientific Corporation β -17.59%
- IREN LIMITED β -17.37%
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. β -17.31%
- Applovin Corporation β -16.12%
- Sandisk Corporation β -15.95%
- Intuitive Machines, Inc. β -15.3%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- February 6 β Fed Jefferson Speech (Neutral)
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.64 | +3.56% | +14.01% | 15.64β20.09 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.03% | +0.5% | -0.49% | 2.02β2.04 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.27% | -0.23% | +0.71% | 4.22β4.3 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | -1.04% | 0.0% | 2.84β2.91 | Neutral |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank decisions, rate-path commentary and mortgage-rate exposure shaping markets and FX.
- Bank of England expected to hold interest rates β BBC, 02/05/2026
- Dollar recovers as central bank decisions loom β Reuters, 02/05/2026
- A surprising share of homeowners have high mortgage rates. Here’s the breakdown β CNBC, 02/04/2026
- Trump says ‘not much’ doubt interest rates will be lowered, in NBC interview β Reuters, 02/04/2026
- Fedβs Cook Focused on Inflation Risks as Greater Threat to Economy β The Wall Street Journal, 02/04/2026
- Choppy markets threaten ECB’s ‘good place’ but rates still firmly on hold β Reuters, 02/04/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank commentary and policy moves shaping the rate outlook and housing/mortgage dynamics.
- Bank of England set to hold rates pending clearer picture on inflation β Reuters, 02/05/2026
- Fed’s Cook says it’s time to ‘wait and see’ on rates β Reuters, 02/04/2026
- ECB and BOE Likely to Keep Rates Steady. Why Theyβre Following the Fed. β Barron’s, 02/04/2026
- The contradictions of the housing affordability dilemma β Axios, 02/04/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
Coverage of AI models and their market impact amid valuation concerns and volatility.
- What You Need to Know About the AI Models Rattling Markets β The Wall Street Journal, 02/04/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Big-picture takes on emerging markets, global growth and broken warning indicators that shape macro outlooks.
- Can emerging marketsβ stellar run continue? β The Economist, 02/04/2026
- The Global Economyβs Warning Signals Are Broken β The New York Times, 02/03/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Local and national economic disruptions affecting jobs, activity and community-level growth.
- βItβs Been Brutalβ: Twin Cities Economy Suffers Under ICE Crackdown β The New York Times, 02/02/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Asian emerging markets see lower volatility as valuations turn attractive: Strategist β CNBC, 02/05/2026
- Watch Malaysian Economy Minister on Growth, Risks β Bloomberg.com, 02/05/2026
- The economy is the world’s most important problem, but not America’s β Axios, 02/04/2026
- Opinion | Republicans Have an Economy Problem β The Wall Street Journal, 02/04/2026
- European stocks head for mixed open ahead of earnings from Shell, Maersk and more β CNBC, 02/05/2026
- Gold extends gains, breaking past $5,000; Asia stocks trade mostly higher, breaking ranks with Wall Street β CNBC, 02/04/2026
- Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Declines; AMD Sinks After Earnings β The Wall Street Journal, 02/05/2026
- Oil Tanker Rates Have Tripled. It May Not Last. β Barron’s, 02/04/2026
- Automakers back Trump plan to roll back fuel economy rules, but seek changes β Reuters, 02/04/2026
- CNBC Daily Open: Alphabet capex plans spook investors, while AMD has a brutal day in markets β CNBC, 02/05/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Daily Discussion Thread for February 04, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-04
- How to survive when your apartment is near freezing. Tips from Kyiv residents for The Repost news β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-04
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 05, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-04
- US Republicans accuse the EU of βdecade-long censorship campaignβ in new report β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-02-04
- Welcome to 2026! β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-02-04
- Germany: Train conductor dies after attack by passenger β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-04
- Alesia Riabenkova, (Latvian born former model and di Caprio ex) groomed and trafficked girls from Europe for Epstein – promised to bring him a “little girl” β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-02-04