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DeepCap Wednesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market sentiment shifts as geopolitical tensions weigh on investor confidence. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 20.09, +6.63%) |
| β° | Key Event: CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions release at unknown time |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged despite slowing economic growth
Policy-rate decisions and central-bank actions in Asia that may influence the global rate backdrop. -
Mortgage Rates Start Rising Again
Stories on rising mortgage rates and the wider implications for yields and monetary-policy debates. -
Live Q&A: Whatβs Next for Global Markets After Japanβs Bond Shock and Trumpβs Greenland Move
Coverage focusing on Japan’s bond shock and related policy/rate implications for global markets.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Global bond volatility β sparked by a Japan-driven bond selloff and amplified by tariff threats over Greenland β dominated markets, lifting gold to record highs and triggering a broad risk-off swing in equities. That sets a fragile tone for today: expect elevated volatility to govern price action, support for gold and miners, and continued two-way moves across FX and sovereign yields as investors re-price risk.
The Setup
Risk gauges show that fragility: VIX at 20.09 (+6.6% on the day, +25.7% week-on-week) is elevated, EUR/USD has strengthened to 1.17 (+0.86%), and EURIBOR 3M sits at 2.03. Yields are mixed β US 10s at 4.28 (down 0.47% intraday but still elevated), German 10s at 2.86 (up 0.7%) β a meaningful divergence that could steer cross-asset flows. Equity sector dispersion yesterday β big gains in miners, sharp losses in select tech and energy names β underscores a positioning squeeze that could accelerate moves if rates or FX tilt further.
Today’s Watch
The day’s main data slate is the CFTC speculative net positions batch at 20:30 US time (previous S&P net -122.1; EUR net 132.7). The market has no consensus prints to front-run; outsized shifts from those prior nets would signal rapid de-risking or re-leveraging across futures and FX. Focus for the session: whether bond flow patterns and positioning reads reinforce safe-haven demand (keeping VIX >20) or allow a tentative equity rebound.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat β +23.51%
- ImmunityBio, Inc. β +17.39%
- Qiagen N.V. β +16.57%
- United Microelectronics Corpora β +15.91%
- Iamgold Corporation β +15.49%
- Orla Mining Ltd. β +14.66%
- Korea Electric Power Corporatio β +14.46%
- Centerra Gold Inc. β +12.21%
π Top Losers
- AeroVironment, Inc. β -15.77%
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β -11.34%
- Murphy Oil Corporation β -10.38%
- VNET Group, Inc. β -10.18%
- Roblox Corporation β -9.67%
- Navitas Semiconductor Corporati β -9.62%
- Twenty One Capital, Inc. β -9.48%
- BitMine Immersion Technologies, β -9.37%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales Ex Autos | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | CA | Retail Sales | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/23 | US | S&P Global Services PMI Flash | πΈ Med |
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.09 | +6.63% | +25.72% | 14.49β20.09 | β οΈ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | +0.86% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.03% | 0.0% | +0.5% | 2.02β2.03 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.28% | -0.47% | +2.39% | 4.14β4.3 | π Bid |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | +0.7% | +0.35% | 2.81β2.9 | Neutral |
Premium
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*Premium* β Risk Scenarios
π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy-rate decisions and central-bank actions in Asia that may influence the global rate backdrop.
- China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged despite slowing economic growth β CNBC, 01/20/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Stories on rising mortgage rates and the wider implications for yields and monetary-policy debates.
- Mortgage Rates Start Rising Again β The Wall Street Journal, 01/20/2026
- Opinion | Thereβs Much More at Stake in the Fed Case Than Interest Rates β The New York Times, 01/20/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Coverage focusing on Japan’s bond shock and related policy/rate implications for global markets.
- Live Q&A: Whatβs Next for Global Markets After Japanβs Bond Shock and Trumpβs Greenland Move β Bloomberg.com, 01/21/2026
Trade & Diplomacy β Greenland tariff threats and market fallout
A cluster of headlines linking Trump’s Greenland tariff threats and wider geopolitical/trade friction to equity and bond market volatility across regions.
- Widespread selloff hits stocks as Trump’s threats over Greenland unnerve investors β Reuters, 01/20/2026
- Gold hits record as Trumpβs Greenland tariff threats rattle Asia markets β CNBC, 01/20/2026
- Global markets on alert as Europe to suspend approval of US trade deal β BBC, 01/21/2026
- Asian Stocks Face Wary Start as Tariff Feud Grows: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 01/20/2026
- Treasuries Join Global Bond Slide as Tariff Angst Grips Markets β Bloomberg.com, 01/20/2026
- Analysis-Geopolitical and tariff risk back with a bang for markets By Reuters β Investing.com, 01/21/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Headlines tying geopolitical moves and diplomatic breaks (notably around Greenland/Europe) to market and economic consequences.
- Greenland standoff rattles markets β Financial Times, 01/21/2026
- What a Break With Europe Means for the American Economy – WSJ β The Wall Street Journal, 01/20/2026
- Trump Wants Greenland. Markets Donβt Know What to Make of That. β The Wall Street Journal, 01/19/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- European stocks sell off after Trump’s tariff threats revive trade war jitters β CNBC, 01/20/2026
- ‘Fast Money’ traders talk stock and bond markets’ reaction to renewed trade tensions β CNBC, 01/20/2026
- China can’t make consumers buy goods, so it leans on services to drive economy β Reuters, 01/20/2026
- As U.S. orders fade, Chinese salespeople face tough grind in new markets β Reuters, 01/20/2026
- S&P 500 Futures Advance, Japanese Bonds Rebound: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 01/21/2026
- ‘Stay calm’ and ‘this is the new normal’: What banking CEOs are saying about the global market sell-off β CNBC, 01/20/2026
- Trumpβs First Year Could Have Lasting Economic Consequences β The New York Times, 01/20/2026
- Asian shares extend selloff, global bond rout stokes fresh anxiety β Reuters, 01/21/2026
- Morning Bid: Markets cling to hopes of a Davos de-escalation By Reuters β Investing.com, 01/21/2026
- Trump Makes Global Stocks Great Again as US Lags World Markets β Bloomberg.com, 01/20/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Europa-Parlamentet voted to offically freezes trade agreement with the United States β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-20
- Nato officials restrict intelligence to US over threats β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-20
- Daily Discussion Thread for January 20, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-20
- Trump threatens 200% tariff on French wines as Macron reportedly snubs ‘Board of Peace’ seat β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-20
- Vienna Academy of Fine Arts offers Donald Trump a student position β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-01-20
- Bye, X: Europeans are launching their own social media platform, W β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-20
- S&P 500 Loses $750 Billion On Trumpβs Greenland Threats β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2026-01-20